:Issued: 2017 Apr 02 1305 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 70402 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Apr 2017, 1305UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 02 Apr 2017 until 04 Apr 2017) SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Apr 2017 10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Apr 2017 10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Apr 2017 10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 011 COMMENT: Solar activity has been enhanced over the past 24 hours, with Active Region (AR) 2644 (McIntosh:Eao/Type:Beta) showing continued flux emergence, and producing several C-class flares and three M-class flares; an M4.4 class flare on 01-Apr-2017 peaking at 21:48 UT, an M5.3 flare on 02-Apr-2017 peaking at 08:04 UT and an M1.4 class flare peaking at 08:35 UT. The first M4.4 class flare had an associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Although there was evidence of a coronal wave on the Sun and the extent of the CME became apparent as LASCO observations became available. The AR 2644 was located at N16W53, and the CME was largely directed to the north west, the CME had a speed of 495 km/s, the solar wind had a speed 550 km/s, and if a small component was to reach the Earth it would be expected to arrive on 05-Apr-2017 early morning. The second flare M5.3 had an associated dimming and coronal wave, LASCO chronograph observations are not available yet. AR 2648 (McIntosh:Cro/Type:Beta) emerged yesterday and has shown some evidence of growth, but still remains small. Solar activity is expected to remain active over the next 24 hours, with AR 2645 producing C-class and AR 2644 producing C-flares flares with the possibility of M, X-class flares. There exists a small probability for the occurrence of a week solar proton event due to the M class flares that took place at the west side of the solar disk. The solar wind speed, as recorded by the DSCOVR satellite, has been slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours, from roughly 620 km/s to 490 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, as recorded by the DSCOVR satellite, has been around 5 nT, and the Bz component was largely fluctuating between -3 nT and +3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions varied between active and quiet over the past 24 hours, with the local (Dourbes) K-index 4-1 and the NOAA K-index 4-2. There is currently a small positive coronal hole located at S15W30 which may increase solar wind speeds. The low solar wind speed, combined with the low magnitude southward Bz indicates that geomagnetic activity should be small with possible low level enhancements over the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 084, BASED ON 28 STATIONS. 99999 SOLAR INDICES FOR 01 Apr 2017 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 101 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 021 AK WINGST : 018 ESTIMATED AP : 017 ESTIMATED ISN : 069, BASED ON 33 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 01 2135 2148 2205 N16W53 M4.4 1F 08/2644 III/2V/3IV/3 02 0433 0802 0813 ////// M5.6 /////// 02 0750 0802 0813 N12W59 M5.3 2N 08/2644 III/2IV/1II/1 END UMAGF 30503 70402 1004/ 01061 1/021 22224 33322 UMAGF 31523 70402 0000/ 01002 1/018 22223 33543 BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#