:Issued: 2017 Mar 21 1230 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 70321 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Mar 2017, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Mar 2017 until 23 Mar 2017) SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Mar 2017 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 023 PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Mar 2017 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 024 PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Mar 2017 10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 024 COMMENT: In the past 24 hours, no C flares were observed. Very low solar activity (no C flares) is expected in the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR has gradually increased from about 320 km/s around 21h UT on March 20 to a peak near 570 km/s around 10h UT on March 21, with current values around 520 km/s. In the same period, the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has risen from about 5 nT to a maximum of 18 nT around 7:20 UT on March 21, with current levels around 10 nT. Bz was below -10 nT between about 5:45 and 6:20 UT on March 20, and has fluctuated a lot outside of this interval. The enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue on March 21 and 22. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 0 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Due to the enhanced solar wind conditions by the passage of a high speed stream from a positive coronal hole, quiet to active levels (K Dourbes < 5) are expected on March 21, 22 and 23, with a chance for minor geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 012, BASED ON 13 STATIONS. 99999 SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Mar 2017 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 000 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 073 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 007 AK WINGST : 002 ESTIMATED AP : 002 ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 18 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END UMAGF 30503 70321 1004/ 20063 1/007 20001 31013 UMAGF 31523 70321 0000/ 20007 1/002 21011 30110 BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#