EUMETNET - E-TREND Joint Workshop on Postprocessing, Forecasting and Nowcasting for Renewable Energy (RenEUCast)

Forecasting Belgium’s Solar Future: Climate Change Impact on PV Energy Output

8 Dec 2025, 13:40

25m

U-Residence (Vrije Universiteit Brussels (VUB))

Talk Operation & Decision-making

Speaker

Mr Richard de Jong (imec)

Description

This study investigates how climate change could affect the energy output of solar panels in Belgium, with projections extending to the year 2100. It offers a long-term perspective by starting with weather data from 1950 and building on future climate models developed by the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI). By analysing multiple climate scenarios, the study examines potential shifts in photovoltaic (PV) system performance over time.

The methodological framework is based on a bottom-up, multi-physics energy yield model developed by imec. This advanced model uses a wide range of weather variables to produce a clear and realistic estimate of how solar panels perform under different climate conditions.