RUSH: Seamless Shift from Obs Extrapolation to AIFS Guidance

9 Dec 2025, 14:25
25m
U-Residence (Vrije Universiteit Brussels (VUB))

U-Residence

Vrije Universiteit Brussels (VUB)

VUB Main Campus Etterbeek Pleinlaan 2 1050 Elsene
Talk Nowcasting

Speaker

Simon De Kock (Electronics and Informatics (ETRO), Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium. Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels, Belgium)

Description

RUSH (Rapid Update Short-term High-resolution) is an AI-native, rapid-update nowcasting framework that turns heterogeneous inputs into probabilistic 0–24 h forecasts at 30-min steps on a 1-km grid over Belgium. Methodologically, RUSH couples two ingredients: (i) observation-led evolution learned from 30-min radar accumulations and 15-min SEVIRI channels, and (ii) large-scale dynamical context from ECMWF’s AIFS. A latent-diffusion sequence-to-sequence model performs conditioning and super-resolution in latent space, avoiding manual blending and enabling seamless transition from nowcasting to short-range guidance. The system is designed for fast cycling as new observations arrive and exposes uncertainty via ensembles. We will present the framework design, training/ingestion pipeline and provide an update on current work which now includes longer forecast times and large-scale predictions downscaling.

Primary author

Simon De Kock (Electronics and Informatics (ETRO), Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium. Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels, Belgium)

Co-authors

Dr Elena Tomasi (Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Data Science for Industry and Physics, Trento, Italy) Dr Gabriele Franch (Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Data Science for Industry and Physics, Trento, Italy) Mr Giacomo Tomezzoli (Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Data Science for Industry and Physics, Trento, Italy) Prof. Lesley De Cruz (RMI - VUB) Dr Marco Cristoforetti (Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Data Science for Industry and Physics, Trento, Italy) Dr Matteo Angelinelli (HPC Department, Cineca, Bologna, Italy) Mr Rishabh Wanjari (Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Data Science for Industry and Physics, Trento, Italy)

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