EUMETNET - E-TREND Joint Workshop on Postprocessing, Forecasting and Nowcasting for Renewable Energy (RenEUCast)

Session

Nowcasting

Nowcasting

9 Dec 2025, 14:00

U-Residence (Vrije Universiteit Brussels (VUB))

Conveners

Nowcasting

• Irene Schicker (GeoSphere Austria)

4. Adaptive Bayesian Nowcasting of Wind Power Based on the Generalised Logit Transformation

Tao SHEN (University of Glasgow)

09/12/2025, 14:00

Talk

Wind power central to the energy transition, yet its variability challenges accurate forecasting. This work introduces an adaptive nowcasting method for probabilistic forecasting method combining the generalised logit transformation with a Bayesian framework. The transformation maps double-bounded wind power data to an unbounded domain, enabling Bayesian inference, while an adaptive mechanism...

8. RUSH: Seamless Shift from Obs Extrapolation to AIFS Guidance

Simon De Kock (Electronics and Informatics (ETRO), Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium. Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels, Belgium)

09/12/2025, 14:25

Talk

RUSH (Rapid Update Short-term High-resolution) is an AI-native, rapid-update nowcasting framework that turns heterogeneous inputs into probabilistic 0–24 h forecasts at 30-min steps on a 1-km grid over Belgium. Methodologically, RUSH couples two ingredients: (i) observation-led evolution learned from 30-min radar accumulations and 15-min SEVIRI channels, and (ii) large-scale dynamical context...