From Extreme Weather Detection to Energy Forecasts: The On-Demand Extremes Digital Twin Renewables Model

8 Dec 2025, 11:50
25m
U-Residence (Vrije Universiteit Brussels (VUB))

U-Residence

Vrije Universiteit Brussels (VUB)

VUB Main Campus Etterbeek Pleinlaan 2 1050 Elsene

Speaker

Kristian Pagh Nielsen (DMI)

Description

The on-demand Extremes Digital Twin Renewables models, developed by the Destination Earth team, provide a configurable workflow linking the detection of adverse weather, hectometric and sub-hourly NWP simulations, and impact models for wind and solar energy. Targeted forecasts of renewable energy production under extreme conditions are generated through dynamic triggering based on meteorological detection algorithms. For wind and solar energy, post-processing combines NWP data (including a wind-farm parametrization) with machine-learning methods to refine the power output predictions, while satellite-driven nowcasting of global radiation complements the forecasts. Together, these components enhance the forecasting precision, uncertainty quantification, and user-tailored information to support grid operators, TSOs, DSOs, and energy traders in operational decision-making during extreme events.

Primary authors

Co-authors

Evgeny Atlaskin (FMI) Florian Weidle (GeoSphere Austria) Geert Smet (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium) Iris Odak Plenkovic (DHMZ) Jacob Snoeijer (KNMI) Jan Fokke Meirink (KNMI) Lüder von Bremen (DLR) Matthias Zech (DLR) Pascal Gfäller (GeoSphere Austria) Petrina Papazek (ZAMG) Roger Randriamampianina (MET Norway) Vujec Ivan (DHMZ)

Presentation materials

There are no materials yet.