Conveners
Operational forecasting application: Operational forecasting application
- Jonathan Demaeyer (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium)
Running a high-voltage transmission grid is work in the shadows: it rarely goes wrong. Yet, a lot of challenges are faced every day. Reliable forecasting is at the heart of this challenge. A good understanding of weather will lead to better forecasts, yet the landscape is changing fast. Having accurate solar and wind forecasts is not enough; better insights in market dynamics and new...
In recent years, the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI) has positioned itself strongly in the field of renewable energy forecasting and its applications. This was made possible by leveraging scientific collaboration within various projects. In this presentation, we give an overview of applications such as the RMI Storm Forecast Tool developed for the Belgian TSO (Elia), and...
Over more than half a century, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) has achieved remarkable progress. This advancement results from the use of increasingly dense observational data types, progress in high-performance computing, and steady improvements in numerical modeling. This long-standing progress faces new challenges, with standard technologies approaching their physical limits, and models...
The on-demand Extremes Digital Twin Renewables models, developed by the Destination Earth team, provide a configurable workflow linking the detection of adverse weather, hectometric and sub-hourly NWP simulations, and impact models for wind and solar energy. Targeted forecasts of renewable energy production under extreme conditions are generated through dynamic triggering based on...
We present evaluations for the prediction of wind power ramping events in the Belgian Offshore Zone. We verify two models from Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium: the operational ALARO-4km and its version with Wind Farm Parameterization (WFP). Power predictions are generated with power curves and machine learning (ML). As standard metrics like MAE are insufficient for evaluating ramps,...
