Speaker
Description
The increasing importance of wind energy in the electricity mix underscores the need for accurately estimating the production of wind energy over the coming decades. We will present a new statistical–dynamical downscaling approach to estimate the wind energy production of wind farms under the climate conditions taken from an ensemble of future climate projections. This approach relies on two reanalysis-driven regional climate model simulations, one of which includes a wind farm parameterization to account for interactions between wind farms and the atmosphere, and wake losses. We then apply this method to a projected, 92-GW North Sea wind farm distribution and compare the energy production between the wind climate of 1985–2014 and 38 projections for the wind climate of 2025–54. The ensemble mean difference in 30-yr energy production is −5% for JJA, −2.5% for SON, and near zero for DJF and MAM. However, these 30-yr differences have a large ensemble spread, with an interquartile range of around 8% and a full range of around 15%. Furthermore, the probability distribution of decadal energy production based on the future projection ensemble is different compared to the historical reference period. For winter (DJF), 16% of future decades fall below the 5th percentile of the historical period and 12% of future decades exceed the 95th percentile. Finally, we illustrate the importance of considering how wind climate changes increase or reduce wake losses, as long-term changes can differ strongly when these effects are not taken into account.
| If your abstract is not accepted for an oral presentation, would you be interested in presenting it as a poster instead? | Yes |
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| If accepted by the Scientific Board, I agree to have my presentation/poster and abstract published on the Belgian Climate Centre websites and social media. | Yes |
