Speaker
Description
Globalized food systems have increased interdependence but also vulnerability to shocks, a challenge further amplified by climate change. This study investigates whether Wallonia (Belgium), a highly industrialized region, could achieve food self-sufficiency under future climate scenarios. A two-step approach was developed: first, a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming algorithm optimized crop rotations to meet population nutritional needs based on the EAT-Lancet dietary scenario, while integrating pedo-climatic suitability and agronomic constraints. Second, these rotations were simulated with the STICS crop model to assess yields, water and nitrogen dynamics, and greenhouse gas emissions under warming levels of +2 °C, +3 °C, and +4 °C.
Results suggest that nutritionally balanced self-sufficiency is theoretically achievable with diversified four- to six-year rotations across the region. However, climate impacts vary by crop and soil: cereals and oilseeds show progressive yield reductions, legumes face strong variability due to drought stress, while maize and sugar beet could benefit from longer growing seasons if water remains available. At the territorial scale, self-sufficiency appears feasible under +2 °C warming but becomes increasingly fragile at higher levels, requiring adaptive measures such as improving soil water retention, adjusting sowing dates, and broadening rotation diversity.
This work demonstrates that land-use optimization and dietary transitions, while necessary, are insufficient without climate adaptation strategies. Coupling optimization with process-based crop modelling provides dynamic insights for policymakers and farmers, enabling the design of resilient cropping systems that can sustain food security under changing climatic conditions.
| If your abstract is not accepted for an oral presentation, would you be interested in presenting it as a poster instead? | Yes |
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| If accepted by the Scientific Board, I agree to have my presentation/poster and abstract published on the Belgian Climate Centre websites and social media. | Yes |
