Speaker
Description
Climate change is projected to intensify and increase the frequency of extreme rainfall across Europe as a result of higher atmospheric moisture in a warmer climate, leading to major socio-economic impacts. However, the role of future changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in shaping these extremes remains uncertain. Recent studies also suggest that climate models often misrepresent regional circulation, which can significantly affect their projections over Europe (Vautard et al., 2023).
This study introduces a framework to separate thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to projected changes in extreme daily rainfall, using the Lamb Weather Type (LWT) classification and applying it to Belgium. CMIP6 Global Climate Models are first evaluated for their ability to reproduce both general atmospheric circulation (Serras et al., 2024) and circulation patterns during extreme rainfall events. Results show that models performing well for overall circulation do not necessarily perform well for circulation during extremes, necessitating an additional selection criterion.
Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, increases in extreme-rainfall intensity and frequency by the end of the century are primarily driven by thermodynamic processes rather than dynamic changes. Seasonally, the probability of extreme rainfall rises mainly in autumn and winter, while intensity increases are strongest in spring and summer.
Vautard et al (2023). Nature Communications, 14(1), 6803.
Serras et al. (2024). Climate Dynamics, 1-23.
| If your abstract is not accepted for an oral presentation, would you be interested in presenting it as a poster instead? | No |
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| If accepted by the Scientific Board, I agree to have my presentation/poster and abstract published on the Belgian Climate Centre websites and social media. | Yes |
