Speaker
Description
The replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy is essential for mitigating the impacts of human-induced climate change. Achieving this transition is a fundamental element of efforts to enable climate neutrality, requiring a reliable and resilient renewable energy system. However, global warming is expected to intensify the instability of renewable energy resources, particularly during periods of simultaneous low wind and solar power generation, known as renewable energy droughts (REDs). These compound events pose major risks to energy security in highly decarbonized systems with limited flexibility and storage capacity. This study provides a global assessment of changes in REDs under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C warming scenarios using CMIP6 multi-model simulations. After estimating wind and solar energy potentials, a Standardized Renewable Energy Index (SREI) is developed using copula functions to model their joint dependence. The impacts of global warming on REDs are evaluated by analyzing changes in their severity, persistence, and recurrence across different warming levels. Results indicate regionally heterogeneous but progressively stronger RED characteristics with higher warming, with solar radiation emerging as the dominant driver and its influence intensifying at 2 °C and 3 °C. These findings highlight the need to integrate compound risk assessments into renewable energy planning to ensure system reliability in a warming world.
| If accepted by the Scientific Board, I agree to have my presentation/poster and abstract published on the Belgian Climate Centre websites and social media. | Yes |
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