Speaker
Description
The concept of just transition has gained increasing prominence in policy agendas at all governance levels, evolving from a reactive approach aimed at protecting industrial workers affected by environmental regulations to a broader social-ecological project aimed at addressing social inequalities and ecological degradation in an integrated way. This integrated approach is particularly relevant in urban contexts, where social and ecological issues tend to concentrate and intertwine.
Yet, while much research on just urban transitions has focused on retrospective or evaluative analyses, future-oriented perspectives remain scarce. This paper addresses this gap by presenting the approach and findings from COGITO, a prospective research project on the just transition in the Brussels-Capital Region.
We first introduce the project’s original conception of a just transition and its operationalization through the framework of social-ecological inequalities.
We then present a participatory prospective approach combining creative and interactive methods to explore how these inequalities might evolve in Brussels by 2050. The resulting four exploratory scenarios – “Sustainable Growth Hub”, “Social-Ecological Pact”, “Bastion of Resilience”, and “Green Fortress” – depict contrasting possible futures under a +3.2°C global warming trajectory, each reflecting alternative responses to the twin crises of social inequality and ecological degradation: techno-optimistic neoliberalism, wellbeing economy, degrowth, and ethno-nationalist protectionism. In each scenario, social-ecological inequalities evolve differently by 2050, with some forms of inequality decreasing or worsening, and new ones emerging.
Finally, we discuss the key insights emerging from this scenario analysis and outline strategic avenues to ensure a just transition in Brussels.
| If your abstract is not accepted for an oral presentation, would you be interested in presenting it as a poster instead? | No |
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| If accepted by the Scientific Board, I agree to have my presentation/poster and abstract published on the Belgian Climate Centre websites and social media. | Yes |
