Speaker
Description
Background: The impact of heat on a vulnerable population, particularly those with pre-existing chronic diseases, is a growing public health concern. However, the risks for those with specific conditions and their variation across geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic (SES) status remain underexplored.
Methodology: We analysed 14 years (2005-2019) of general practitioners (GPs) data from Flanders, northern Belgium, assessing both morbidity and mortality. Morbidity was defined as GP-recorded general and heat-related illnesses among individuals with pre-existing chronic diseases, while mortality included overall mortality and mortality among people with pre-existing chronic diseases. A space-time-stratified case-crossover design was employed, with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) applied in quasi-Poisson regression.
Results: We found a strong association of heat with morbidity and mortality. A substantially increased risk of morbidity was observed among individuals with pre-existing heart failure (RR= 2.79 [95% CI: 1.84–4.24]) and a high risk of mortality was found among those with pre-existing hypertension (RR= 2.01 [95% CI: 1.23–3.30]). We also observed a rise in heat-related morbidity risks for individuals with pre-existing Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) (RR= 2.09 [95% CI: 1.53–2.85]), hypertension (RR= 1.37 [95% CI: 1.08–1.74), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (RR= 1.74 [95% CI: 1.25–2.42]), and chronic mental health disorders (RR= 1.41 [95% CI: 1.06–1.89]). There was an increased risk of overall mortality (RR= 1.29 [95% CI: 1.02–1.62]).
Conclusion: Our findings indicated that chronic diseases are associated with higher vulnerability to adverse health effects due to extreme heat. We observed notable variations across geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic subgroups.
| If accepted by the Scientific Board, I agree to have my presentation/poster and abstract published on the Belgian Climate Centre websites and social media. | Yes |
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