This seminar is part of the Climate Cookies & Coffee series of the Belgian Climate Centre. This is a new seminar series launched by the Belgian Climate Centre to foster knowledge-sharing, collaboration, and interdisciplinary discussion among climate researchers.
For edition, the Belgian Climate Centre will welcome Anupama Xavier with a presentation on "Predictability of north Pacific blocking events : Analogue based analysis of historical MIROC6 simulationse-Driven Pathogens".
Atmospheric blocking exerts a profound influence on mid-latitude circulation, yet its predictability remains elusive due to intrinsic non-linearities and sensitivity to initial-conditions. While blocking dynamics have been extensively studied, the impact of geographical positioning on predictability remains largely unexplored. This study provides a comparative assessment of the predictability of Western and Eastern North Pacific blocking events, leveraging analogue-based diagnostics applied to CMIP6 MIROC6 simulations. Blocking structures are identified using geopotential height gradient reversal, with their temporal evolution analysed through trajectory tracking and error growth metrics. Results reveal that Eastern blocks exhibit lower predictability, characterized by rapid error divergence and heightened mean logarithmic growth rates, whereas Western blocks display dynamical stability. Persistence analysis gives no significant difference between eastern and western North Pacific blocking events. Sensitivity analyses across varying detection thresholds validate the robustness of these findings.
