This seminar is part of the Climate Cookies & Coffee series of the Belgian Climate Centre. This is a new seminar series launched by the Belgian Climate Centre to foster knowledge-sharing, collaboration, and interdisciplinary discussion among climate researchers.
For this edition, the Belgian Climate Centre will welcome Anupama Xavier with a presentation on "Improving Climate RiskPreparedness: Predictability of North Pacific Blocking Events in Earth System Models".
Atmospheric blocking events play a critical role in shaping high-impact weather extremes across the Northern Hemisphere, including heatwaves, cold spells, and prolonged droughts. Improving their predictability is therefore essential for strengthening climate risk management and early warning systems. This study assesses the predictability of blocking events over the Western and Eastern North Pacific using analogue-based diagnostics applied to historical simulations from the MIROC6 Earth system model.
Blocking events are identified through geopotential height gradient reversals, and their evolution is analysed using trajectory tracking and error growth metrics to quantify forecast uncertainty. Results reveal a clear regional disparity: Eastern North Pacific blocking events exhibit lower predictability, with faster error growth and higher uncertainty, while Western events demonstrate comparatively greater dynamical stability. Notably, both regions show similar persistence characteristics, indicating that predictability differences arise primarily from underlying dynamical processes rather than event duration.
These findings have direct implications for climate services and disaster preparedness. Regions influenced by Eastern North Pacific blocking may face greater forecast uncertainty, underscoring the need for probabilistic forecasting, adaptive risk planning, and enhanced observational strategies. By identifying geographic hotspots of reduced predictability, this work supports the development of more resilient early warning systems and informs policy decisions aimed at mitigating the impacts of extreme weather in a changing climate.
