STCE workshop - Natural Hazard Assessment for Aviation

Europe/Brussels
Meridian room (Royal Observatory of Belgium)

Meridian room

Royal Observatory of Belgium

Ringlaan 3 1180 Uccle
E. De Donder (BIRA-IASB), M. Kruglanski (BIRA-IASB)
Description

The adverse impact of natural hazards on modern technologies has become an important motivation for research into the involved physical processes and for study of the vulnerable technologies.

This workshop proposes to explore how the Belgian scientific community can best respond to this motivation in the aviation domain. The aim of the workshop is to raise awareness on the new challenges and requirements of the aviation community, as well as on the maturity available assets addressing natural hazard such as cyclonic storms, volcanic eruption and space weather.

Participants
  • ANdy Delcloo
  • Andy Devos
  • Bart Nicolai
  • David Walsh
  • Dennis Hart
  • dieter poelman
  • Emilien Robert
  • Erwin De Donder
  • Hugo De Backer
  • Jan Janssens
  • Jesse Andries
  • Laszlo Hetey
  • Laurent Delobbe
  • Maarten Reyniers
  • Mark Dierckxsens
  • Michel Kruglanski
  • Neophytos Messios
  • Nicolas Theys
  • Paul Simon
  • Petra Vanlommel
  • Quentin Laffineur
  • Samson Snoeck
  • Simon Chabrillat
  • Sophie Chabanski
  • Stan Stankov
  • Tobias Verhulst
  • Viviane Pierrard
  • Wim Demol
    • 09:15 09:45
      Welcome 30m Meridian room ()

      Meridian room

      Coffee and tea

    • 09:45 10:00
      Introduction Meridian room

      Meridian room

      Royal Observatory of Belgium

      Ringlaan 3 1180 Uccle
      • 09:45
        Introduction 15m
        Speaker: M. Kruglanski (BIRA-IASB)
        Slides
    • 10:00 11:00
      Morning Session - part 1 Meridian room

      Meridian room

      Royal Observatory of Belgium

      Ringlaan 3 1180 Uccle

      Chair: E. De Donder

      • 10:00
        International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO): Space Weather Activities 25m
        The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is the UN's specialized agency responsible for developing international standards and recommendations for aviation. At the 12-yearly MET Divisional Meeting in 2002, a recommendation was made to assess in consultation with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) the need for providing information on solar radiation storms. Since then, activities took place in a dedicated MET Expert Group, the International Airways Volcano Watch Operations Groups (IAVWOPSG) leading to a proposal for space weather services for discussion at the MET Divisional Meeting in 2014. This meeting decided that the proposal was not yet mature enough for operational implementation and that further work was required. This work will be conducted by one of the Working Groups of the recently established MET Panel.
        Speaker: B. Nicolae (Belgocontrol)
        Slides
      • 10:25
        Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) 35m
        The European and Global air transport environment is gradually evolving towards a fully time ordered system instead of the distance based system of managing flying aircraft in European and Global skies. The supporting Air Traffic Management functions will need to adapt from a technical point of view and from the perspective how these services are delivered to the users. Emilien ROBERT and Dennis HART will brief you on these various aspects of the Single European Sky (SES) and specially addressing the R&D pillar of SES, today’s management of natural hazards by the Network Manager and the focused activities related to Space Weather.
        Speakers: D. Hart (Eurocontrol), E. Robert (Eurocontrol)
        Slides
    • 11:00 11:15
      Coffee 15m Meridian room

      Meridian room

      Royal Observatory of Belgium

      Ringlaan 3 1180 Uccle
    • 11:15 12:30
      Morning Session - part 2 Meridian room

      Meridian room

      Royal Observatory of Belgium

      Ringlaan 3 1180 Uccle

      Chair: M. Kruglanski

      • 11:15
        Radar and lightning nowcasting products for aviation safety authorities: BELLS, INCA-BE and VBIRD 25m Meridian room

        Meridian room

        Royal Observatory of Belgium

        Since mid 2013, the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium sends the output of the INCA-BE system in real-time to Belgocontrol, the Belgian air traffic safety authority. INCA-BE is a nowcasting system for the analysis and nowcasts of several meteorological fields, like temperature, humidity, wind, cloudiness, precipitation and some derived fields like precipitation type and visibility. It operates at a horizontal resolution of 1 km, and on an hourly basis (10 min for precipitation and cloudiness), delivering forecasts up to +12 hours lead time (+4 hours for precipitation). We discuss its main characteristics, the adaptation to our local domain, its data sources, and the current users and applications. Recently, lightning data were added to this system. A "lightning activity field" has been defined for this purpose, and is advected along with the precipitation. This advected field has to be interpreted as a "risk zone" where lightning can potentially occur. A second product that was recently implemented by the radar group of the RMI and which is directly related to air safety, is the VBIRD radar product. VBIRD filters bird signals out of weather echoes in radar data, and calculates bird density profiles for the three weather radars in Belgium. This product is very effective in detecting nightly mass migration of birds during intense migration events. It is delivered in real-time to the Aviation Safety Directorate of the Belgian Air Force.
        Speakers: D. Poelman (KMI-IRM), M. Reyniers (KMI-IRM)
        Slides
      • 11:40
        The support to aviation control service, an overview and recent developments 25m Meridian room ()

        Meridian room

        The Support to Aviation Control Service (SACS; http://sacs.aeronomie.be) is an on-line service displaying in near real-time satellite observations of volcanic ash and SO2. Relying both on UV-visible (OMI, GOME-2, OMPS) and thermal infrared (IASI, AIRS) satellite sounders, it is aimed at aviation authorities, atmospheric scientists and volcanologists. In addition to the near real-time data, the service issues warnings by email and accommodates a large archive of over 10 years of satellite data. After having reviewed SACS’ main features, we focus on more recent developments, in particular the new algorithms using the hyper spectral infrared sounders. SACS now features a unique ash plume warning system based on an innovative algorithm that enables truly selective detection of volcanic particles. We also present possible plans for the future and links with activities within the ESA-funded VAST project.
        Speaker: N. Theys (BIRA-IASB)
        Slides
      • 12:05
        Running the Lagrangian dispersion model, FLEXPART in an operational context at RMI 25m Meridian room ()

        Meridian room

        FLEXPART is a Lagrangian particle dispersion transport model which is originally designed for calculating the long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources. Through the years, these type of models have proven to be a very useful tool in an operational context for the protection of the population in case of accidents in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime, FLEXPART has evolved into a more comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modelling and analysis. The model can also be used in a forward or backward mode, making it possible to trace back the source pollution contribution of a certain pollutant. The FLEXPART model is designed to be operational for the long-range transport and therefore runs on a resolution of 0.5° x 0.5°, using meteorological forecast data from the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF). On a daily basis, FLEXPART runs at the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium for several hotspots for the northern hemisphere. The lead time of the forecast is 3 days. The presentation will include an overview of the setup of the model and some examples will be discussed.
        Speaker: A. Delcloo (KMI-IRM)
        Slides
    • 12:30 13:45
      Lunch 1h 15m Canteen RMI ()

      Canteen RMI

    • 13:45 15:45
      Afternoon session Meridian room

      Meridian room

      Royal Observatory of Belgium

      Ringlaan 3 1180 Uccle

      Chair: B. Nicolai

      • 13:45
        Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC) and its Space Weather Services 25m
        The Solar Influences Data analysis Centre is the Solar Physics and Space Weather department of the Royal Observatory of Belgium. The Sun is the main driver of Space Weather and with several instruments keeping a close eye on the Solar activity every day, the centre is delivering key information to the assessment and forecasting of Space Weather conditions. In its capacity of Regional Warning Centre for Belgium in the context of the International Space Environment Services (ISES) it has been delivering 7/7 Space Weather services for many years. An overview of these services and capabilities will be presented.
        Speaker: J. Andries (ROB)
        Slides
      • 14:10
        Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Space Weather 25m
        The GNSSs (e.g. GPS, Galileo, Glonass, Beidou) allow the determination of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) between a satellite and a ground receiver. It is thus possible to monitor the impact of the space weather on the upper part of our atmosphere (i.e the ionosphere) using a network of GNSS stations. This paper presents GNSS-based TEC maps delivered from different agencies with different latencies (i.e. minutes to days), area extents (i.e. local to global), grid resolutions (i.e. few degrees to lower than 1°) and time scales (i.e. few minutes to hours). Additionally, we will discuss the effectiveness of GNSS-based products especially during disturbed Space Weather conditions (i.e. ionospheric storms).
        Speaker: N. Bergeot (ROB)
        Slides
      • 14:35
        Solar Energetic Particle Events 25m
        Solar energetic particle (SEP) events consist mainly of protons, electrons and He ions and are observed as sudden flux increases of several orders of magnitude above background levels. These events result from the acceleration of particles by solar flares and shocks generated by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Specifically, earthward-directed SEP events that are magnetically well connected can arrive near Earth after traveling through interplanetary space. After a short introduction to SEP events, their influence on assets and human health in space and on the ground will be reviewed. Special emphasis will be placed on the effects that are potentially hazardous for aviation. A tool for forecasting SEP events was developed within the scope of the EU FP7 project COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: forecasting the space weather impact). An overview of the SEP Forecast Tool as integrated within the COMESEP Alert System will be presented and its performance will be demonstrated using the period around the launch (16-13 Dec 2013) and manoeuvring (3-14 Jan 2014) of the ESA GAIA mission.
        Speaker: M. Dierckxsens (BIRA-IASB)
        Slides
      • 15:00
        Benefit of a LIDAR-ceilometer network for aviation 25m
        The Eyjafjallajökull and the Grimsvötn volcano's in Iceland erupted in April 2010 and in May 2011 respectively causing massive disruption to the European air traffic. These eruptions highlighted the need for automatic LIDAR-ceilometer (ALC) monitoring stations capable of routinely estimating the vertical profile of aerosols. The ALC primarily designed for cloud base height detection has greatly improved over the last years, and now offers the opportunity to monitor the vertical profile of aerosols on a continuous temporal scale. In recent years, several Meteorogical services in Europe replaced or improved their traditional cloud-base ceilometer network to be able to monitor aerosol plumes. To coordinate and to make available the ALC measurements of each national network to the European meteorological community in near real time, two major European projects supported by EUMETNET (E-PROFILE) and by COST Action (TOPROF) have been established in 2013. An ALC network can monitor not only ash plumes but also others type of aerosol plumes (dust, smokes...) less innocuous for the aviation but whose monitoring enables to validate and to improve the dispersion models. An intercontinental wildfire smoke transport event observed over United Kingdom and Belgium by ALC in summer 2013 will be presented. This case study illustrates clearly the ambiguity that can happen if one type of remote sensor instrument is used to monitor aerosol plumes. ALC measurements also offer the opportunity to analyse the backscatter signal in the boundary layer that potentially contains major information to predict radiation fog formation or not. Fog is the most frequent cause of surface visibility below 1 km, and is one of the most common and persistent weather hazards encountered in aviation and to nearly all forms of surface transport. The financial and human losses related to fog became comparable to the losses from other hazardous weather events e.g., tornadoes or, in some situations, even hurricanes. Forecasting fog can be difficult, a number of approaches have been used to integrate the satellite data, numerical modeling, and standard surface observations. Successful numerical modeling and forecasting of fog depends on the fog type that has to be predicted. Radiation fog events is a typical example of fog that is particularly difficult to predict by comparison with advection fog or orographic fog. The Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI) and The Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute (IPSL, SIRTA) developed a forward stepwise screening algorithm to help prediction of radiation fog formation based on the hygroscopic growth function of aerosol scattering coefficient deduced from LIDAR-ceilometer measurements. This algorithm will be tested in October 2015 at Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport in real-time in parallel with the usual fog prediction methods. A description of this new fog prediction algorithm will be also presented.
        Speaker: Q. Laffineur (KMI-RMI)
        Slides
      • 15:25
        Space Situational Awareness (SSA) space weather end-user (SWE) strategy 20m
        During ESA's Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Space Weather (SWE) preparatory programme, a precursor SSA SWE service network has been set up by bringing together a number of pre-existing applications and products from previous ESA activities and national initiatives, and by providing the SSA SWE portal (http://swe.ssa.esa.int) as main access for the potential users of the space weather services. During the SSA period 2, the SWE service network will be extended with a range of data and applications, and intends to become fully operational in the future. Since space weather is a rapidly evolving domain, with users gaining more in-depth knowledge of how space weather affects their systems and new user groups becoming aware of the potential impact of space weather, it is important to establish a close relationship with the different potential user communities. Such a relationship enables user awareness and ensures its progress from awareness, to agreement, and from agreement to adoption of evidence-based practices. In this talk we present our approach for establishing and developing closer links with the end-user space weather communities.
        Speaker: E. De Donder (BIRA-IASB)
        Slides
    • 15:45 16:00
      Coffee 15m Meridian room ()

      Meridian room

    • 16:00 17:00
      Round table Meridian room

      Meridian room

      Royal Observatory of Belgium

      Ringlaan 3 1180 Uccle