Speaker
Description
We analyse stratospheric ozone changes due to greenhouse gases and their impact on DNA active UV-B irradiance at ground level. The analysis is an extension of the recent study by Eleftheratos et al. (2020) who showed that solar ultraviolet-B irradiance that produces DNA damage would increase after the year 2050 in mid latitudes by +1.3% per decade. Results were based on chemistry climate model simulations with the EMAC model at 5 lidar stations, namely Hohenpeissenberg, Haute Provence, Table Mountain, Mauna Loa and Lauder. Such change in the model was found to be driven by a significant decrease in cloud cover due to the evolution of greenhouse gases in the future and an insignificant trend in total ozone.
Here, we increase the number of stations and analyze ozone and ultraviolet-B radiation measurements at 18 ground-based stations from the northern to the southern high latitudes contributing data to NDACC. The ground-based data are used to evaluate the EMAC CCM calculations of UV-B irradiance. Then the model is used to study the long-term variability of stratospheric ozone and UV-B irradiance due to the evolution of greenhouse gases in the future. We present regional, latitudinal and global changes in DNA active UV-B irradiance until the end of the 21th century with respect to changes in total ozone and cloud cover.
