Speaker
Description
Solicited talk originating from parallel session SWR2.
The first severe geomagnetic storm of Solar Cycle 25 occurred on 23-24 April 2023, with Dst index of -213 nT. Utilizing the state-of-the-art observational and modeling techniques, we studied the Sun-to-Earth evolution of the coronal mass ejection (CME) which was launched from the Sun on 21st April 2023 and triggered this severe geomagnetic storm. Multi-wavelength and multi-vantage point remote sensing observations of this event were analysed to constrain the near-Sun CME properties, which serve as input for the interplanetary flux rope simulator (INFROS) model to predict the magnetic vectors of the ICME at 1 AU at two different spacecraft i.e. Wind and STEREO-A. Further, we integrated INFROS with the Drag-Based Model (DBM) and empirical Dst prediction models, to present a comprehensive space weather modeling framework to estimate the intensity of the associated geomagnetic storm. The validation of our INFROS based space weather modeling framework for this event shows a strong correlation between the observed and predicted SYM/H profiles, thereby suggesting that this framework could be used for forecasting the intensity of geomagnetic storms. The propagation characteristics of this CME was also studied which highlights the importance of heliospheric imaging and the availability of observations from several vantage points to estimate the true direction of propagation and hence the arrival time accurately. Further, the event provided a unique opportunity to analyse the space weather impact of this geomagnetic storm, in particular, the variation of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field corresponding to the passage of the different ICME structures over the Indian and American longitude sectors. In my presentation, I will discuss the results of the analysis of the geoeffective event of April 2023. I will also discuss the limitations and challenges associated with modeling such events and the steps required to improve space weather forecasting.
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