Dr. Sarah Beeck is a tenure-track researcher in the Geodesy and Earth Observation Division at DTU Space, the Technical University of Denmark. Her research centres on Arctic space weather, where she focuses on categorising the different impacts on GNSS to develop methods for local, reliable alerts for GNSS users across the region.
Sarah earned her PhD at DTU Space as part of the SWADO...
- Area of Expertise:
Ground-based space weather monitoring, remote sensing of the LTI region, ionospheric vertical sounding, ionospheric long-term evolution / ionospheric climatology
Affiliation: EISCAT AB (formerly EISCAT Scientific Association), Kiruna, Sweden, and Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory, U Oulu, Sodankylä, Finland.
- Connection to Space in the Arctic
I work in the...
Recurring Coronal Holes (CHs) are long-lived structures in the solar corona that survive over multiple solar rotations. They are generating high speed solar wind streams that can have a recurring geoeffective impact. For our study we employ the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and the Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models incorporated in the coronal modelling domain of EUHFORIA (European...
The solar wind is an uninterrupted flow of highly ionised plasma that streams from compact sources at or near the Sun and expands into the whole interplanetary space, being a major driver of space weather phenomena. Understanding the conditions that regulate the formation of the solar wind, its acceleration across the corona, and its transition to the heliospheric propagation regime is key...
As Solar Cycle 25 reaches its peak of activity, Solar Orbiter is observing a substantial increase in solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and solar energetic particles (SEPs). Specifically, the Energetic Particle Detector (EPD) on board Solar Orbiter has been tracking and characterizing the rise in SEP activity over the past five years. This paper focuses on the intensities of...
Understanding the radiation risks associated with space weather phenomena is becoming increasingly critical as aviation and space travel push beyond traditional boundaries. With the rise of commercial aviation at high altitudes, the emergence of suborbital tourism, and long-duration missions in low Earth orbit (LEO), assessing radiation exposure under varying space weather conditions is...
Coronal Holes (CHs) are the major source of origin of the fast solar wind, which is its most geo-effective component. Identifying the coronal hole configuration and the large-scale structures of the solar corona enables prediction of the solar wind at 1 AU, thus allowing validation of solar wind models in reference to 1 AU observations. In this work, we contribute to the WindTRUST project,...
Energy spectra of solar energetic particles provide valuable insights into particle acceleration processes. However, also transport effects have been found to potentially alter the spectra, especially in the case of solar energetic electron (SEE) events, which commonly show broken power-law shapes. We analyze the energy spectra of the 50 most intense SEE events measured by Solar Orbiter’s...
Space weather forecasting needs fast and reliable prediction of the solar wind in the inner heliosphere. The complex physics of the corona, the turbulent heating and acceleration of the solar wind are thus often bypassed using empirical models driven by observations. In 2023, we introduced a novel technique based on white light coronagraph observations made by LASCO C2 to infer the state of...
Geomagnetic storms, as a part of space weather phenomena, are known to degrade the performance of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), which are increasingly relied upon in aviation operations. This study investigates whether such disturbances correlate with deviations in GNSS-derived aircraft positions, as broadcast in ADS-B surface messages and passively collected via a ground...
Systematic study of solar energetic particles (SEPs) provides the necessary basis to understand their origin, acceleration and propagation in the interplanetary space. It is believed that SEPs are produced following solar eruptive processes, such as solar flares and/or coronal mass ejections. SEPs can be accelerated to the GeV/n range, yet the bulk are with energies of about 100 MeV/n. In the...
Periodic density structures (PDSs) are a type of solar wind mesoscale structure characterised by quasi-periodic variations in the density of the solar wind ranging from a few minutes to a few hours. They are trains of advected density structures with radial length scales of LR =100-10,000 Mm. Analysis of case studies shows that PDSs can be compressed when embedded in a stream interaction...
Track circuits were introduced in 1872 by Robinson in the United States and were quickly adopted around the world. The basic concept is to divide the railway line into blocks and only allow one train at a time into a specific block. Track circuits are used to detect the presence of a train and control the signals to prevent a following train from entering an occupied block of track. In the...
The fleet of spacecraft distributed in the inner heliosphere during May-June 2024 offered us the unique opportunity to analyze, over a wide range of heliolongitudes, the effects produced by the complex sunspot group formed by the NOAA active region (AR) 13664 (later numbered AR 13697).
The intense level of solar activity recorded from 2024 May 8 to 2024 June 21 led to unusually elevated...
Modern radio telescopes have the ability to probe the inner Heliosphere using propagation techniques such as Interplanetary Scintillation. Such approaches have huge promise for data validation, since they are able to survey such a large volume of the Heliosphere including measurements well out of the ecliptic and at a range of heights. The density of measurements is particularly high for the...
Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are typically accelerated during solar eruptions and propagate along magnetic field lines in the inner heliosphere. These eruptions include shockwaves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and magnetic reconnection in solar flares. Since spacecraft rarely reach the acceleration regions close to the Sun, measured SEP intensities reflect a combination of...
Railways rely on interdependent systems for power, navigation, communications, and signalling, many of which are at risk of disruption by space weather. Understanding how and to what extent space weather can impact these systems is crucial to maintaining the safe and punctual operation of railway networks.
Among the many examples of potential impacts, power supply failures would leave...
Geomagnetic indices such as the Dst index are relevant for quantifying global geomagnetic storm impacts, yet their operational forecasting remains constrained by reliance on solar wind measurements from L1-based spacecrafts like ACE or DSCOVR. Current models depend on near-real-time L1 data to make the predictions, creating a fundamental limitation: the magnitude of the geomagnetic storm...
Electrons in Earth’s radiation belts exhibit significant variability in both space and time during geomagnetic storms, posing potential risks to satellites and astronauts. Physics-based models aim to describe the behavior of energetic electrons in the radiation belts but often face challenges due to uncertainties and inaccuracies, especially in the initial and boundary conditions. Data...
Understanding long-term solar activity is key for advancing our knowledge of the solar dynamo and improving space climate forecasting capabilities. In this contribution, we present a comprehensive revision of sunspot records from two key periods: the early telescopic era and the decades following the Maunder Minimum.
First, we reanalyze Christoph Scheiner’s observations from Rosa Ursina and...
Auroral forms can provide information not only on the state of near-Earth space but also on conditions in the lower-thermosphere–ionosphere. The so-called dune aurora, consisting of brighter stripes forming a wave-like pattern in the dim, diffuse green aurora, has been hypothesised as being an optical signature revealing the presence of a large-scale atmospheric wave above or near the...
The ambient solar corona and solar wind plays an essential role in space weather at Earth and throughout the solar system. The magnetic field is a key aspect of describing the solar wind ambient state, and solar wind properties are closely tied to magnetic structure. The field is most readily measured in the photosphere, so models must extrapolate this field out into the solar wind. We...
The center of the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA) is located in the southern part of Brazil, where enhanced energetic particle precipitation (EPP) can occur, particularly during strong geomagnetic storms. Consequently, the sporadic auroral E layer (Esa), a feature typically observed in ionograms from high latitude auroral regions, can also be detected at stations near the center of the...
Parisian solar observations constitute the richest sunspot data set covering the Maunder minimum. Thirty years ago, sunspot latitudes were reconstructed by Elisabeth Nesme-Ribes, but these data have been lost. We present an extensive set of newly reconstructed sunspot parameters for both sunspot groups and individual sunspots. Based on the hand-written notes in the observational journals by...
The validation of the 3D MHD model EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset, Pomoell & Poedts, 2018) at near-Sun distances was made possible with the availability of solar wind data from the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) mission. We carried out solar wind simulations for the first ten perihelion encounters by PSP, each covering a period of approximately three weeks and spanning...
The ionosphere and thermosphere are critical regions of Earth’s upper atmosphere, playing a significant role in technologies such as radio communication and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). However, their variability, driven by solar and geomagnetic activity, as well as interactions with neutral molecules and the lower atmosphere, makes accurate prediction of their state...
Within four centuries of instrumental sunspot observations, the Maunder Minimum is known as a unique period with extremely small solar cycles and enhanced hemispheric asymmetry of the reported sunspot groups, as well as the apparent loss of the solar coronal streamers. Sunspot group positions have been discussed mostly on the basis of the French and German observers’ records. Some researchers...
In this study, we present the results of a comprehensive assessment of thermosphere models under geomagnetic storm conditions, defined by a geomagnetic index ap ≥ 80. This work builds upon Bruinsma et al. (2024, DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2024027), which evaluated the performance of empirical and physics-based thermosphere models during storm periods. Utilizing models hosted at NASA's Community...
Geomagnetic storms during the declining phase of the solar cycle 24 were studied using the total electron content (TEC) data obtained from three geodetic receivers located in Portugal: Lisbon (Continental Portugal), Furnas (Azores) and Funchal (Madeira). Two of the receivers (Lisbon and Furnas) are located at about the same latitude (~39ºN) while the third receiver (Funchal, ~33ºN) is...
In this work we incorporate Solar Orbiter’s Polarimetric and Helioseismic Imager (PHI)
Full Disc Telescope (FDT) observations into the Air Force Data Assimilative
Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model to construct more complete global solar
photospheric maps. We feed these maps into the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model to
reconstruct the solar corona and perform solar wind simulations for...
The ionosphere is a significant error source in radio communication and modern GNSS satellite navigation. Variations in electron density, especially during the geomagnetic storm, can lead to signal distortion, fading, and transmission delays. Therefore, accurately predicting and forecasting ionospheric conditions is essential for mitigating these effects, which requires the use of advanced...
The main drivers of geomagnetic storms are interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and solar wind high-speed streams (HSSs) with stream interaction regions (SIRs). In this presentation, we show one example of both cases and study their effects on the high-latitude ionosphere-thermosphere (I-T) system. We use a multi-instrument approach with ground-based instruments (e.g., the EISCAT...
The reconstruction of the Sunspot Number (SN) series is a cornerstone for long-term solar activity studies and space climate research. In recent years, the exploitation of historical solar observations has proven essential for identifying inconsistencies, improving calibration, and extending the SN record. This presentation reviews recent advancements in the use of historical documents—such as...
The presence of energetic electrons in the heliosphere is associated with solar eruptions, but details of the acceleration and transport mechanisms are still unknown. We explore how electrons interact with shock waves under the assumptions of shock drift acceleration (SDA), diffusive shock acceleration (DSA), and stochastic shock drift acceleration (SSDA). Consideration of the shock wave...
Solicited talk originating from parallel session OPS.
A geomagnetic storm of similar intensity to the historic Carrington event of 1859 would present a serious risk to ground-based technological systems, particularly high-voltage power transmission networks. In a previous study, Blake et al. (2021, Space Weather, doi:10.1029/2020SW002585) reconstructed the magnetic field variations observed...
Solicited talk originating from parallel session SWR1.
We present a comprehensive catalogue of solar energetic electron (SEE) events, derived from joint observations by remote-sensing and in-situ instruments aboard the Solar Orbiter spacecraft. The Energetic Particle Detector (EPD) is used to characterise the properties of energetic electrons in situ and to estimate their injection times at...
Extreme geomagnetic storms have become more often over the recent years as we have reached and passed beyond the maximum levels of activity for the current solar cycle 25. Extreme storms are typically caused by arrivals of fast coronal mass ejections either linked to active regions and related flaring activity or driven by underlying filament or prominence eruptions. Real-time forecasting of...
During a solar flare, the fluxes in various lines and continua of the solar spectrum increase, leading to enhanced ionisation of the illuminated part of the Earth’s ionosphere and an increase in the total electron content (TEC). It has been previously shown that nearly 50% of X-class solar flares exhibit a second peak in warm coronal lines, such as Fe XV and Fe XVI, (called the ”EUV late...
Magnetic flux ropes are ubiquitous features observed in the low corona and propagating through the solar atmosphere. They are formed by combined action of the magnetic field of the Sun and its internal processes, observed remotely and in situ. Flux ropes are one of the main components of Coronal Mass Ejections, drivers of major geomagnetic storms, and they are therefore of high importance in...
Particular attention has recently been paid to the near solar subsurface layer, known as NSSL. On the one hand, because of the disruptive role of the magnetic field, whose properties are still far from fully understood in this region. Secondly, because of some unsuspected properties of solar rotation that have been also recently put in evidence, notably the reversal of the rotation gradient...
The Sun’s variability is controlled by the progression and interaction of the magnetized systems that form the 22-year magnetic activity cycle (the “Hale Cycle”) as they march from their origin at ∼55° latitude to the equator, over ∼19 years. Indeed, the Extended Solar Cycle is the Cycle.
Over the past few years, we have developed a new paradigm built around the overlapping extended...
The inference of the photospheric magnetic field has, until recently, been limited to one view point: that from Earth. This is especially important when studying the long term evolution of active regions, where they are only close to disc centre for approximately a week. The Polarimetric and Helioseismic Imager (PHI) on board Solar Orbiter (SO) has made it a reality to extend the coverage of...
Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) leave several signatures in the low corona as identified in EUV and X-ray images, such as intense flares, dimmings, EUV waves, etc., before they appear in white-light coronagraph images. Among them, coronal dimmings are arguably the most reliable indicator of the CME, but their predictive potential for space weather is not yet demonstrated beyond the...
The bow shock current (BSC) plays an important role in supplying the magnetosphere with solar wind energy, in particular during times of low solar wind magnetosonic Mach numbers. Since the magnetic pile-up in the magnetosheath has to be maintained, the BSC cannot close locally, but must instead connect to magnetospheric current systems. However, the details of this closure remain poorly...
The importance of magnetic helicity in understanding Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is well recognised. Many studies have supported the idea that a dominant helicity accumulation in active regions (AR) can be a reason for CME eruptions. This study investigates its potential for constraining input parameters in inner heliospheric CME propagation models. We propose a new method to constrain the...
Our Sun is a highly dynamic star, exhibiting a broad range of activity from subtle dynamic events to powerful flares and large-scale coronal mass ejections (CMEs). CMEs are vast expulsions of magnetised plasma from the solar corona, while flares are intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation originating in the solar atmosphere. A flare and CME often occur concomitantly; the flare would then...
Changes in solar wind flow, typically associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and high-speed streams (HSSs), directly impact the near-Earth space environment. These structures disturb the Earth’s magnetosphere and induce variability in the geomagnetic field. Rapid variations in the geomagnetic field, characterized by elevated values of dBH/dt, can lead to the generation...
Solar flares are primary drivers of space weather and play a crucial role in the Sun-Earth connection. The physical mechanisms underlying solar flare initiation remain a topic of intense research. It is widely accepted that flares result from the rapid release of magnetic energy stored in the stressed configurations of ARs. Several competing, and possibly concurrent, mechanisms have been...
During their propagation from the Sun, through the solar corona and into the inner heliosphere, the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) encounter variable solar wind. Some of the recent studies of the in situ observations of CMEs, by the rather closely positioned spacecraft, showed very different CME signatures. Such different in situ CME signatures may be due to the distorted CME shape which...
The study of magnetic activity in the Sun's polar regions is essential for understanding the solar cycle. However, measuring polar magnetic fields presents challenges due to projection effects and their intrinsically weak magnetic field strength. Faculae, bright regions on the visible solar surface associated with increased magnetic activity, offer a valuable proxy for measuring polar...
The near-Earth space environment is strongly influenced by the solar wind and embedded interplanetary magnetic field. Therefore a thorough understanding of the upper atmosphere response during the passage of geoeffective solar wind transients, such as high-speed streams/stream interaction regions (HSS/SIR) and interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) is crucial for accurate space weather...
The evolution of the solar magnetic field is the key factor governing space weather drivers. Accurate forecasting of space weather requires precise modelling of the magnetic field's evolution on the solar surface using methods like Surface flux transport (SFT). Conventionally used SFT modelling techniques involve grid-based numerical schemes, making them computationally expensive. In this...
Space weather predictions of the solar wind impacting Earth (including its transients) are usually first based on remote-sensing observations of the solar disc and corona, and eventually validated and/or refined with in-situ measurements taken at the Sun–Earth Lagrange L1 point, where real-time monitoring probes are located. However, this pipeline provides, on average, only a few tens of...
Understanding the causative mechanisms behind solar eruptions and solar energetic particle events is crucial for space weather forecasting. However, although numerous models have been proposed regarding the relationship between the magnetic fields of active regions and solar eruptions, the structure and parameters of the magnetic fields that govern these events remain unclear, which still...
To improve solar 11 yr cycle forecast one must be able to take into account the rising/declining phase asymmetry of the cycle. In our Solar Predict 11 yr cycle forecasting tool based on a 4D-var assimilation technique coupled to a Babcock-Leighton mean field dynamo model - we use meridional circulation as the primary control parameter for determining the future cycle's length and amplitude. In...
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with a strong and sustained southward magnetic field component are the main drivers of strong geomagnetic activity at Earth. One of the greatest challenges in space weather is accurately forecasting their arrival and magnetic structure, essential towards mitigating their impact to both space and ground systems. As CMEs propagate from the Sun, they undergo many...
In recent decades, diverse catastrophic phenomena, from earthquakes and landslides to structural collapses and myocardial infarctions, have been framed as critical transitions in complex systems, marked by a sudden, irreversible shift from equilibrium to an unstable state. Here, we extend for the first time the Natural Time Analysis (NTA) framework to solar Active Regions (ARs) in order to...
The Solar system travels in the interstellar medium and may encounter so-called clouds, regions of the enhanced density of matter relative to the surrounding space. Such passages can in theory affect the size of the heliosphere around the Sun and lead to a significant change of the space climate around the Earth. As one of the changes, a reduced heliospheric size can make the solar modulation...
The Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) is one of the most advanced radio telescopes in the world. When radio waves from a distant astronomical source traverse the ionosphere, structures in this plasma affect the signal. The high temporal resolution available (~10 ms), the range of frequencies observed (10-90 MHz & 110-250 MHz) and the large number of receiving stations (currently 52 across Europe)...
Turbulence in plasmas involves a complex cross-scale coupling of fields and distortions of particle velocity distributions, with the generation of non-thermal features. How the energy contained in the large-scale fluctuations cascades all the way down to the kinetic scales, and how such turbulence interacts with particles, remains one of the major unsolved problems in plasma physics. Moreover,...
The magnesium II core-to-wing ratio has been measured on a daily basis since 1978. It is a widely used proxy for solar chromospheric activity, essential for satellite drag calculations as well as the model that is the NOAA Climate Data Record for solar spectral irradiance. In 2017, this measurement became available operationally from GOES-16/EXIS at three-second cadence with high...
Co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs) are formed at the interface of the background slow solar wind and the fast solar wind emanating from coronal holes. Their high velocities and plasma pressures shape the heliosphere and are one of the main drivers of geomagnetic storms. The recently formed fleet of spacecraft in the heliosphere, including Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo,...
Sporadic-E, thin metallic ion layers in the lower ionosphere compressed via neutral wind shears or externally imposed electric fields, pose considerable challenges for High Frequency (HF) radio propagation modelling. As their name suggests, these layers can appear to be quasi-stochastic, requiring both an abundance of metallic ions and a mechanism through which to compress them into thin,...
Solar flares are transient energetic events triggered by electromagnetic plasma instabilities arising within regions of the solar corona. These events are characterized by a broadband radiative emission and energetic particle release and, in synergy with other transient solar phenomena, play a key role in shaping space climate. Despite decades of observations, the statistical properties and...
Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental process in astrophysical plasma, as it enables the dissipation of energy at kinetic scales as well as large-scale reconfiguration of the magnetic topology. In the solar wind, its quantitative role in plasma dynamics and particle energization remains an open question that is starting to come into focus as more missions now probe the inner heliosphere. In...
Sudden Commencements (SCs) are rapid, near-impulsive changes of the geomagnetic field that are measured on the ground. SCs are caused by sudden increases of solar wind dynamic pressure (e.g., interplanetary shocks), that compress the Earth’s geomagnetic cavity (the magnetosphere). Such changes in the geomagnetic field, as measured on the surface of the Earth, result in the creation of...
Solar eruptive activity manifests in several forms, the most prominent and well-studied being solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. However, the upper limits of intensity for these eruptive phenomena remain largely uncertain. To date, only extreme solar particle events (ESPEs) have been identified in cosmogenic isotope records preserved in...
AGATA (Antarctic Geospace and Atmosphere ReseArch) is a Scientific Research Programme (SRP) of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). The AGATA SRP was officially approved during the SCAR Delegates Meeting in August 2024, with scientific activities commencing in January 2025. The programme is designed to address key open questions concerning the coupling between the different...
The solar wind is a complex and dynamic plasma environment, populated by a variety of structures. Among these we find Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), interplanetary shocks, Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) and large-amplitude non-linear deflections of the magnetic field called switchbacks. They have been shown by Parker Solar Probe to be ubiquitous (Bale et al. 2019). These switchbacks,...
Large-scale coronal structures, such as streamers and pseudostreamers, are considered potential sources of the slow solar wind, contributing to its structured nature and variability. However, due to the lack of high-resolution coronal observations, the processes driving the dynamics of these structures and their role in the slow wind are not yet fully understood. In this study, we analyzed a...
Investigating the intricate relationship between galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar activity is fundamental to our understanding of the physical mechanisms governing particle transport within the heliosphere. It also provides critical insights into radiation exposure and associated risks for space missions. In this study, we present advancements in our predictive model for solar modulation,...
The extraordinary importance of the sunspot number is given by the fact that it is the longest data series available for the study of the long term behaviour of the solar activity. This is also one of the sources of its weakness because of the calibrational challenge of the datasets recorded in the large number of different time intervals. A further drawback is that it is a dimensionless...
On May 10th 2024, the first of at least five interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) arrived at Earth and caused the strongest geomagnetic storm (Gannon storm) in over twenty years. The effect of this storm was global, however in this study the effect on the Swedish power grid is in focus. By using satellite data from Wind, ground magnetometer data from the IMAGE network and ground...
Space weather events like solar flares cause enhanced absorption of radio waves in the ionosphere most notably in the lowest part of it, the D-region (ca. 60–100 km altitude range) which can weaken radio signals and can pose difficulties to radio communication at certain frequencies. There exist several methods to qualitatively or quantitatively assess the absorption in the layers of Earth’s...
JEDI is a next-generation high cadence, multi-thermal EUV Imager selected by NASA to fly on the European Space Weather Mission Vigil in a halo orbit around the Lagrange Point L5. JEDI will improve our understanding of space weather and enhance space weather operations capability by providing vital observations of earth-directed space weather events from the solar disk out 6 R⊙. JEDI will also...
Ionospheric indices play a crucial role in monitoring and understanding the dynamic behavior of the ionosphere. By examining the temporal and spatial variability of Total Electron Content (TEC) or electron density, we can detect and characterize ionospheric perturbations across various scales. Beyond their scientific value, these indices also help assess the potential impact of space weather...
Combined observations from the Metis coronagraph and EUI/FSI on board Solar Orbiter, together with recent results, will be presented to focus on future scientific objectives of the JEDI (Joint EUV coronal Diagnostic Investigation) instrument on Vigil.
In particular, we discuss the potential of multi-band coronal observations
(Metis in visible light and UV, and FSI at 174 Å and 304 Å, both...
Historical observations play an important role in understanding past solar activity and any changes that may have occurred with respect to the sun. The current state of most historical data is not well-suited for modern data analysis, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Most data sets are also not well discoverable and are at risk of being lost. This leaves historical data...
Variations in the ionospheric currents can cause rapid disturbances in the magnetic field at the ground level, so called dB/dt spikes, and Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) that can harm human infrastructure. When investigating dB/dt spike occurrence and GIC risks, the focus has typically been on geomagnetic storms. However, recently it has been argued that it is the substorm phenomena...
Long-term reconstructions of sunspot number (SSN) and group sunspot number (GSN) often tacitly assume that the basic characteristics of solar activity remain unchanged even over long times, e.g., that the sunspots and sunspot groups now and, say, 100 or 500 years ago have the same relations and characteristics. However, this assumption needs examination, especially as the long-term...
Accurately predicting the evolution and impact of solar disturbances—such as solar energetic particles (SEPs), stream interaction regions, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs)—demands a precise reconstruction of the background solar wind and its intricate small-scale structures. These subtle features play a critical role in determining the timing, shape, and geoeffectiveness of space weather...
Geomagnetic disturbances lead to the generation of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in technological systems like power grids. In some cases, mainly during intensive events, these GICs can irreversibly damage the transformers and even cause power grid blackouts.
At the same time, the proper numerical simulation of GICs is rather challenging task due to the many variables that...
In previous work, we applied our modelling framework for geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in the German high-voltage transmission grid to geomagnetic storms of Solar Cycle 25, including the May 2024 event. This analysis revealed significant GIC amplitudes (>20 A) across several substations.
This consequently raises the question of the likelihood of such an impact in the future and the...
The solar wind causes a continuous modulation of the high-latitude ionosphere, namely in the electric field, thermosphere heating, plasma transport, thermospheric composition and circulation. The main goal of this study is to investigate the mechanisms that play a role in the response of the ionosphere-thermosphere system to the variations in the solar wind and to quantify the response time...
Vigil is the first space weather mission in ESA’s Space Safety program to position a spacecraft at the Lagrangian L5 point of the Sun-Earth system. Vigil will peer behind the solar limb (as seen from Earth) and monitor solar activity in quasi real-time, 4-5 days before it becomes visible from ground.
A key instrument onboard Vigil is the Photospheric Magnetic-field Imager (PMI), a...
The ERC-AdG project Open SESAME (project No 101141362) aims to develop a time-evolving model for the entire solar atmosphere, including the chromosphere and transition region, based on a multifluid description. Currently, models are primarily steady, rely on a single-fluid description and include only the corona due to computational challenges. We plan to use time-evolving ion-neutral and...
Ensuring safety in the space environment is critical as human space activities, such as the Artemis program, become increasingly ambitious. In particular, solar energetic particle (SEP) events, triggered by solar flares (SFs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), pose significant risks to human health and space systems. To address these risks, Fujitsu Limited and ISEE, Nagoya University, have...
Timely and accurate forecasting of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) is essential for mitigating their impact on space- and ground-based infrastructure. While significant advances have been made in predicting ICME arrival times and identifying their in situ signatures, integrating these steps into a continuous operational pipeline remains a challenge.
In this work, we...
We will present our modeling effort to characterize and understand the solar corona and wind with the Wind-Predict-AW data driven 3D MHD model. In particular we focus on how multi-vantage points EUV emissions along with while light images can be used to constrain such coronal model with advanced heating mechanisms (waves, turbulence, radiation or conduction). We extend our analysis to include...
Solar eruptions are ubiquitous in the sun and play a significant role in space weather. With the advent of multi-view observations, we can gain a better understanding of the three-dimensional structure of these eruptive events and identify the various energetic processes involved. To fully grasp the physics behind these phenomena, it is essential to develop innovative simulations that...
Solar eruptive events can accelerate electrons that usually precede the arrival of the proton and ion components during solar energetic particle (SEP) events. These latter species have been much more studied in SEP radiation environment models than electrons. Solar energetic electron (SEE) populations are typically detected in the kinetic energy range from a few keV to a few MeV, with...
Coronal holes (CHs) are known to be sources of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs), yet the physical mechanisms linking CH position and characteristics to solar wind (SW) behaviour remain unclear. Our results reveal that the latitude of CHs, especially smaller ones, combined with the heliographic latitude of the solar disk’s central point (B0 angle), plays a critical role in driving...
In this talk, we will present our results in leveraging deep learning techniques for the automatic classification of solar active regions, for both the Mount Wilson and the McIntosh classification schemes. For this latter one, we consider a hierarchical multitask learning approach that mirrors the dependency structure inherent in the McIntosh system, which decomposes sunspot morphology into...
The CHerenkov Atmospheric Observation System (CHAOS) is a student-developed particle detector flown aboard the BEXUS 35 balloon mission as part of the REXUS/BEXUS programme to test alternative concepts in near-relativistic ion detection. The instrument combines energy-loss measurements (dE/dx–dE/dx) with a velocity threshold from an aerogel-based Cherenkov detector, enabling clean measurements...
Studying magnetic flux ropes is crucial for understanding the origin and evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), as these twisted magnetic structures often serve as the core configuration driving CMEs from the solar corona. On November 9, 2021, the Metis coronagraph (Antonucci et al. 2020) on-board ESA Solar Orbiter mission, observed a slow erupting flux rope, when the spacecraft was at...
The ESA Vigil mission, to be launched in 2031, will enable unique observations of solar activity and space weather monitoring from the Sun-Earth Lagrange point L5, a gravitationally stable position 60° behind Earth in its orbit. It will capture Earth-bound coronal mass ejections, which will also be observed from the L1 and Earth vantage points. NASA’s twin-spacecraft STEREO mission (launched...
Radiation-belt enhancement events, during which electrons reach energies high enough to penetrate spacecraft shielding, pose serious hazards to satellites. Reliable forecasts of both the peak flux level and the duration above an operationally safe threshold would be invaluable to satellite operators. In this talk, I present an algorithm based on Gaussian Processes (GP) to produce probabilistic...
The ambient solar wind plays an important role as one of the driver of geoeffective space weather activity. The solar magnetic field is 'frozen-in' and carried outward by the solar wind plasma. As it frozen-in, it follows the parker spiral. Usually 4-5 sectors of opposite polarity are present in the Interplanetary medium. Sector boundaries are the regions where the magnetic field direction...
In recent years, studies have shown that it is possible to predict the geoeffectiveness of solar activity (L1 solar wind speed, geomagnetic indices) directly from EUV solar images using deep learning models (Upendran et al. 2020; Bernoux et al. 2022; Brown et al. 2022; Hu et al. 2022; Wang et al. 2025). These models, which are ultimately intended to be used operationally to provide early...
We present a comprehensive statistical study between type II radio bursts from the metric (m) to the dekameric–hectometric (DH) domain and their association with different solar and space weather phenomena, namely, solar flares, sunspot configurations, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections, their interplanetary counterparts and shocks, in situ detected particles and geomagnetic storms. We...
The Norwegian Radiation Monitor (NORM) is a compact, single-detector particle telescope developed for measuring energetic electrons and protons in space. Its modular architecture allows for deployment across a variety of orbital platforms, including geostationary (GEO), low Earth (LEO), and highly elliptical orbits (HEO).
The first NORM unit is currently flying aboard the Arctic Satellite...
Machine learning (ML) has shown promise in space weather applications, yet its
predictive power is often limited by the scarcity of rare event data and the lack of
physical constraints. In this study, we explore a physics-informed neural network
(PINN) approach that integrates the VERB-CS model with a neural network model
to estimate cold plasma electron density in the plasmasphere. The...
Solar active regions, accumulations of strong magnetic field, play a crucial role in driving space weather. Their evolution can influence the solar wind, and they can trigger eruptive phenomena. Active regions have long been studied from Earth’s vantage point using instruments such as the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). While HMI allows for...
This study deals with prominence eruptions captured by the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager/Full Sun Imager (EUI/FSI) on board the Solar Orbiter. We analyse a selection of 230 eruptions from the detailed catalogue available at https://www.sidc.be/EUI/solar-eruptions, focusing on events where prominences reach projected heights beyond 2 solar radii. The large field of view (up to fourteen solar...
To achieve sustainable human planetary exploration, world-wide space agencies are collaborating to advance crewed mission programs. The Moon and Mars, key targets of these missions, lack the thick atmosphere and strong geomagnetic shield such like the Earth. As a result, the intensity of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) in these environments can reach an order of magnitude higher than in the low...
Interaction of Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs) with High-Speed Streams (HSSs) could alter their plasma and magnetic field properties. The properties of the interaction should be encoded in the in situ plasma and magnetic field observations. To characterise the properties of the interaction, we analyse the in situ signatures of 30 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) interacting with...
Operational solar flare forecasting requires computationally efficient and energy-optimal methods that maximize the use of available observational resources to deliver timely and reliable predictions. Synoptic full-disk observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) provide continuous monitoring of solar magnetic activity over more than one solar cycle, enabling detailed studies of...
Inner magnetospheric dynamics and coupling processes are highly dynamic, in part due to the interaction of electrons with a variety of electromagnetic waves. Here we present a novel combination of observations made in Fennoscandia that reveal energetic electron precipitation into the D-region ionosphere due to these coupling processes. We identify various magnetospheric phenomena, including...
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the primary drivers of space weather phenomena.
Once a CME reaches Earth the severity of the geomagnetic response is dependent on CME properties such as speed, dynamic pressure, and the specific magnetic configuration of the CME. CMEs can be modelled with a bright front, dark cavity and core. This core is associated with a flux rope in CME models.
We...
Forbush decreases (FDs) are one of the very common in-situ signatures of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) throughout the heliosphere. These short-term reductions in the galactic cosmic ray flux are measured by ground-based instruments at Earth and Mars, as well as various spacecraft throughout the heliosphere (most recently by Solar Orbiter). We recently developed an analytical...
Solar coronal magnetic fields store the magnetic energy that drives solar eruptions, such as flares and coronal mass ejections, which significantly impact space weather. Nonlinear force-free fields (NLFFFs) are commonly used to model the 3D coronal magnetic fields. We develop a physics-informed neural operator (PINO) model that learns the solution operator mapping 2D photospheric vector...
Physics-based modelling of the large-scale dynamics caused by space-weather relevant Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is conventionally carried out employing either a coronal or heliospheric approach. In the former, the dynamics all the way from the low corona to the heliosphere is modeled, while in the latter the simulation is started at heliocentric distances where the solar wind is...
The spatial extension of active regions of the Sun and their associated images can strongly vary from one case to the next. This inhomogeneity is problematic when studying solar flares with convolutionnal neural networks (CNNs) due to their fixed input size. Several processes can be performed to produce a database with homogeneous-sized data, such as coarse resizing, cropping, or padding of...
In this study, we investigate the temporal responses of trapped relativistic electron fluxes in the heart of the outer radiation belt during three geomagnetic storm periods. We relate satellite observations of relativistic electron fluxes to the variations in electron precipitation made using VLF subionospheric propagation techniques, which are sensitive to D-region ionisation levels. Such...
The solar storms of May 2024 were a series of powerful solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that occurred between 10 and 13 May 2024, followed by a few strong solar flares over the next few days during solar cycle 25. As these eruptions propagated through the corona, they generated multiple solar type II radio bursts, indicating the presence of shock waves.
This study aims to...
Due to geomagnetic dipole tilt, the solar zenith angles and the resultant ionospheric conductivities at the same geomagnetic (GM) latitude and local time are highest in the tilt direction, which are the North American sector in the northern hemisphere and the Australian-New Zealand sector in the southern hemisphere. As a result, the geomagnetic disturbances at observatories in the tilt...
We investigate data-driven strategies for identifying and predicting geoeffective events using long-term space environment observations. The study explores different unsupervised learning approaches for detecting statistical anomalies in solar wind in-situ measurements and geomagnetic data, with the aim of enhancing our understanding of solar-terrestrial interaction. Such anomalies may...
Geomagnetic storms are phenomena that pose a hazard to electronic devices on the earth’s surface. Accurate knowledge of the disturbance conditions of the Earth’s magnetic field is crucial to mitigate potential adverse effects. Here we present a comparison of the Dst and SYM-H global geomagnetic indices with local disturbance data from six stations in southern Europe over the period 1981-2021....
Modelling solar eruptions is crucial to understand their triggers and how they might impact Earth's magnetic environment. Thus, magnetic field simulations of the low solar corona are of great relevance for space weather forecasting. In particular, simulations that are driven by the observed magnetic field at the photosphere have proven to be a powerful tool to model the energy build up and...
Radial diffusion, driven by ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves, is a key process contributing to the acceleration and loss of electrons in the outer radiation belt by contributing to their inner or outer transport. Ground magnetometers give us continuous observations of such ULF waves but their usefulness is limited by the models used to transform ground measurements into their progenitor fields...
Solar flares result from the rapid conversion of stored magnetic energy within the Sun's corona. These energy releases are associated with coronal magnetic loops, which are rooted in dense photospheric plasma and are passively transported by surface advection. Their emissions cover a wide range of wavelengths, with soft X-rays being the primary diagnostic for the past fifty years. Despite the...
Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves are generated in the equatorial regions of the inner magnetosphere. These waves propagate to the middle or low latitudes in the ionosphere through the ionospheric duct, detected as Pc1 waves by ground-based magnetometers. To figure out how the Pc1 wave power attenuates during propagation in space and on the ground, we investigated a magnetically...
Space weather can adversely affect the operation of satellites in Earth orbit and consequently exacerbate the problem of debris generation in space. The associated effects are more probable around the peak of a solar cycle. As we approach the peak of the 25th solar cycle, we leverage on our institute’s cross-program capabilities in model-driven assessment and prediction of LEO objects’...
The METIS Coronagraph onboard Solar Orbiter observes simultaneously in the Visible (VL) band between 580 and 640 nm and the Ultraviolet (UV) band at 121.6 nm. It also observes at a high spatial and temporal resolution, thus allowing a comprehensive characterisation of solar events.
In particular, the Metis team is creating a database of solar eruptive events observed in both the VL and UV...
In this work, we employ an attention-based deep learning approach to predict flare occurrence from multivariate time series of SHARP magnetogram features. The model takes as input active region data over varying time windows and outputs probabilistic predictions for C+-, M+-, or X+-class flare events. To capture the temporal evolution of active regions, the architecture leverages...
Paulikas and Blake first approached the relationship between relativistic electron flux and solar wind speed in late 1979 and found a linear correlation when considering averages of solar wind speed and geosynchronous relativistic outer radiation belts electron flux for three different time intervals (1 day, 27 days, and 180 days). Many years later, Reeves et al., 2011 expanded the analyses...
Solicited talk originating from parallel session SWR2.
The first severe geomagnetic storm of Solar Cycle 25 occurred on 23-24 April 2023, with Dst index of -213 nT. Utilizing the state-of-the-art observational and modeling techniques, we studied the Sun-to-Earth evolution of the coronal mass ejection (CME) which was launched from the Sun on 21st April 2023 and triggered this severe...
Solicited talk originating from parallel session CD4.
Like other components of modern technological infrastructure, aviation safety and efficiency are vulnerable to the effects of space weather events, as they depend on navigation and communication systems that can be disrupted by solar and geomagnetic activity. While these effects can be identified and better understood through substantiated...
Large geomagnetic field variations during geomagnetic storms induce geoelectric currents in the ground which flow through ground-based technology, such as power grids and pipelines. In recent years BGS have been working on improving measurements and models to help quantify the risk of space weather.
We have upgraded our long-term geoelectric field monitoring equipment at the 3 UK...
Forecasting and understanding space weather remains a fundamental challenge due to the inherently multi-scale nature of plasma dynamics in the Sun-Earth connection. Traditional first-principles models like fully kinetic Particle-in-Cell (PIC) simulations are highly accurate but computationally prohibitive for operational or ensemble forecasting. In this work, we present a novel hybrid...
Motivated by the need for improved radiation environment modeling, this study investigates the drivers behind sub-relativistic electron flux variations in the inner magnetosphere. We utilize electron flux measurements between 1 to 500 keV from the Hope and MagEIS instruments on board the RBSP satellites and the FEEPS instruments on board the MMS spacecraft. along with solar wind parameters and...
On May 10th 2024, the arrival of a series of CMEs led to the largest geomagnetic storm since 2003 and resulted in auroras observed at mid latitudes worldwide as well reported impacts across a range of sectors. This presentation offers a case study of the storm from the perspective of an operational forecaster at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) over the duration of the...
A series of PCA-based models were previously developed to forecast the total electron content (TEC) variations caused by space weather. The earlier versions used linear regression models to build a forecast, which later was replaced by neural networks (NN). Such models were tested on the TEC data obtained for a European mid-latitudinal region (Iberian Peninsula).
In this work we present a...
We investigate operational anomalies on GOES spacecraft that are attributed to shallow internal charging driven by enhanced flux of 100 - 300 keV electrons. This population is not traditionally associated with either surface charging (dominated by electrons with energies 10s of keV) or deep dielectric charging (typically linked to MeV-range electrons). Using data from 2017-2021 during the...
The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission was launched in 2009 and has been operational since commissioning in the first half of 2010. The Sun signal appears in most of the brightness temperature images collected by the Microwave Imaging Radiometer using Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS) payload. As such, the removal of this signal has always been a top priority for the success of the...
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) space weather service provides space weather alerts and forecasts for the aviation industry. It is comprised of four global centres: ACFJ (Australia, Canada, France, and Japan), PECASUS (Finland, UK, Italy, Belgium, Austria, Netherlands, Germany, Poland, and Cyprus), SWPC (USA), and CRC (China and Russia). The responsibility for the...
Fifty years after the Burton equation proposal for the coupling between solar wind and magnetosphere, as quantified by the Dst index, this work proposes a missing term for the injection of energy from the solar wind into the ring current. This term is associated with Alfvén waves and allows us to explain the linear trend observed in the recovery phase of Dst or SYM-H indices during the passage...
As human space activities, such as the Artemis program, become increasingly ambitious, ensuring safety in the space environment has become more critical than ever. In response, Fujitsu Ltd. and Nagoya University are conducting joint research on space weather for future lunar and deep-space exploration. A key focus of this research is solar energetic particle (SEP) events, which are mostly...
RISER – Radio Investigations for Space Environment Research – is a £3.7M NERC-funded Large Environment 5-Year Project addressing the full chain of space weather phenomena from the Sun to the Earth. It investigates how regular radio observations taken using the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) can be used for continuous, accurate tracking of inner-heliospheric and ionospheric plasma structures,...
The Solar-Terrestrial Center of Excellence (STCE) plays an essential role in the Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space weather User Services (PECASUS), providing specialized space weather services to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The role of STCE is to act as a central data hub for the consortium and to provide 24/7 monitoring of the space weather conditions,...
The largest solar flares, of class X and above, are associated with strong energetic particle acceleration. The reconnection process thought to be responsible for solar flares can be mimicked with so-called cellular automata. In particular, sandpile models have proven to well reproduce solar flare statistics (Charbonneau et al. 2001) and have recently been shown to be consistent with MHD...
During the geomagnetic storm of October 10, 2024, GNSS-based augmentation services such as EGNOS APV-I (Approach with Vertical Guidance) and LPV (Localizer Performance with Vertical Guidance) were reported to experience a significant disruption. These services were unavailable for nearly one hour over southern Iberia and showed reduced availability across other parts of Europe. This reduction...
During 10-19 May 2024, the largest storm in the past 20 years took place, characterized with minimum Dst index of -412 nT. In the storm main phase, dropouts of >700 keV relativistic electrons are observed by Arase and NOAA 18 satellites throughout the outer radiation belts. During the storm recovery phase, the fluxes of relativistic electrons locally increase by about more than two orders of...
In Defensie, we have started with a systematic study of space weather (SW) effects on the most SW-vulnerable defence systems to determine the associated SW risks when these systems are used in operations. We will first shortly present this initiative, including its goals and main challenges. An important part of this initiative is creating a bridge between the existing academic knowledge and...
The radiation-belt electron flux exhibits dramatic variations across a range of spatial and temporal scales, including global‐scale radial transport, mesoscale injections, and local‐scale wave‐particle interactions. Long-term variability has been successfully captured by solving the Fokker Planck diffusion equation (e.g., BAS-RBM), incorporating radial, pitch-angle and energy diffusion and...
Severe geomagnetic storms have a significant impact on ionospheric and geomagnetic dynamics, particularly in equatorial regions such as Thailand. These disturbances often manifest as modifications to the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) and the development or suppression of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs). These effects are primarily driven by storm-time electric fields and associated...
The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is starting a new space weather training tailored for different user groups with both custom in-person and online options, available on a web based platform for the benefit of the entire community. The training will be based on the U.S. ARSET (Applied Remote Sensing Training) Program’s (Earth Science) significant experience. Training material...
Geomagnetic storms are large disruptions of the magnetosphere. These events can interfere with satellites, communication systems, and power grids, causing significant technological and economic damage. Current forecasting models utilise L1 satellite data, constraining lead time to a few hours', often insufficient for effective mitigation. Accurate long-lead forecasts would help protect...
Energetic particle precipitation (EPP) into the atmosphere can influence the chemical composition from the upper stratosphere to the lower thermosphere. The impact of precipitated relativistic electrons from the radiation belt on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics remain unresolved. In this study, we use the VERB-4D code to simulate radiation belt electron dynamics during geomagnetic storms,...
The geomagnetic storm that began on May 10$^{th}$, 2024 — commonly referred to as the “Mother’s Day” or “Gannon” storm — was the strongest in decades, producing global auroral displays and major space weather impacts.
This study presents a detailed analysis of GNSS signal scintillation in the Arctic (50°–85°N, 160°W–40°E), combining multi-instrument datasets to examine both physical drivers...
Accurate three-dimensional (3D) characterization of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is essential for modelling their propagation through interplanetary space and forecasting their arrival time at Earth. However, forecasting accuracy, assessed through platforms such as the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) CME Scoreboard, has shown minimal improvement over the past decade, with...
It is 1 September 1859, in the morning. Carrington, a solar physicist sees a flash on the sun. A day later, the sky is on fire. The telegraph crackles and sparks. What happened?
What people saw was the result of a massive solar storm slamming into Earth. That was then. Now, anno 2025, this could happen again. Solar storms occur with clock-like regularity on the sun. Although the sun is some...
This study investigates chorus wave activity and relativistic electron dynamics in the radiation belts during the High-Speed Stream (HSS) event of July 7, 2016. Electron flux measurements from the REPT instrument and magnetic field data from EMFISIS aboard the Van Allen Probes were analyzed, along with solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters from the DSCOVR satellite. The...
SAPPHIRE-2S is a novel model developed over several years which concerns Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) particle radiation and is the extension of the Solar Accumulated and Peak Proton and Heavy Ion Radiation Environment (SAPPHIRE) model. SAPPHIRE-2S is the first publicly available SEP climate specification model offering as base output solar particle flux time-series. The time-series outputs...
We describe a large database of natural electromagnetic emissions of lower band whistler mode chorus and exohiss within the Earth's magnetosphere. It is based on more than 50 milion selected survey measurements of the magnetic fluctuations, recorded between 2001 and 2020 by the two NASA Van Allen Probes and four ESA Cluster spacecraft. The database provides a comprehensive view of amplitudes...
Timely and accurate solar flare forecasting is vital for minimizing the adverse effects of space weather on Earth and in space environments. We present a deep learning framework that integrates multi-modal solar observations—line-of-sight (LoS) magnetograms, continuum intensity images, and EUV observations (171Å, 193Å, and 304Å from SDO/AIA)—alongside physical parameters derived from SHARP...
The intensity and energy spectrum of energetic charged radiation in the heliosphere are significantly influenced by solar activity. This phenomenon is known as solar modulation of cosmic rays.
As interplanetary travel becomes a reality, missions in low-earth orbit become longer and more frequent. In order to accurately assess the radiation hazard experienced by astronauts during space...
The aurora is one of the most mesmerizing natural phenomena, but for individuals with blindness or visual impairment, experiencing its beauty through traditional means is not possible. [The ATOS project][1] (A Touch of Space Weather) is dedicated to making space weather science accessible to students with disabilities, particularly those with visual impairments. As part of this initiative,...
Chorus waves play a significant role in the dynamic evolution of energetic electrons in the inner magnetosphere. Thus, understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of these electrons requires global distributions of chorus waves, which are not usually possible to obtain from a single satellite mission. In this study, we use 11 years of data from both the Van Allen Probes mission and the...
In recent years, our star has significantly increased its activity. This has been reflected in a larger number of geomagnetic storms, manifesting in the geomagnetic field perturbation and the formation of strong ground electric fields (GEFs). One of the most important consequences of exceptionally high levels of GEF is the occurrence of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), which are...
The consequences of space weather are often viewed as potentially catastrophic and civilization threatening, yet they are very often much less dramatic, but significant, nevertheless. We believe that it’s important for the public to understand how we deal with space weather events, without recurring to Carrington scenarios and scaremongering.
In Italy, public awareness of space weather...
Understanding how the thermosphere responds to solar activity remains a critical challenge for space situational awareness, with growing relevance as atmospheric heating poses increasing risks to an expanding population of spacecraft and space debris.
We analyze several months of high-resolution orbit decay data from seven satellites spanning altitudes of ~470-810 km, integrated with...
Annual carbon isotope (δ13C) data obtained from the Pafuri Baobab trees from north-eastern Southern Africa for the period 1200 AD – 2000 AD were used to investigate the presence and variability of the Hale, Schwabe and Gleissberg solar periodicities during the Wolf (1280 – 1340 AD), Spörer (1388 – 1550 AD), Maunder (1621 – 1715 AD) and Dalton (1790 – 1820 AD) solar minima. Spectral analysis...
Mytherrella is an interactive art installation which creates a dynamic environment collocating scientific data and mythological storytelling to transport the public into an imaginary world where all-sky scientific images of aurora take plenary part in the show through distortion into imagination, fears and myths of older populations from the North. The deep learning core generates real time...
The key challenges in low Earth orbit (LEO) with space operations are tracking and catalogue maintenance for resident space objects (RSOs) including lethal non trackable (LNT) objects, collision and conjunction analysis, manoeuvre planning, re-entry prediction, etc. All these aspects are deeply dependent on drag, which, in turn, has its major source of uncertainty in the thermospheric density....
Whistler-mode waves are commonly observed in magnetized plasma environments, such as Earth’s inner magnetosphere, where wave-particle interactions play a significant role in radiation belt electron dynamics during geomagnetically active periods. Several mechanisms have been proposed for the generation of whistler-mode waves within the dense plasmasphere and plasmaspheric plumes, including...
We study magnetic storms during the 120-year time interval (1903-2023), which covers the whole Modern Maximum (MM, the latest Gleissberg cycle) of solar activity. Storms are mainly driven by coronal mass ejections (CME) and high-speed solar wind streams with related stream interaction regions (HSS/SIR). CME occurrence closely follows sunspots, the emergence of new strong magnetic flux, while...
Solar flares pose risks to infrastructure both on Earth and in space, from induced currents in power grids to satellite damages. Most operational flare forecasting models treat the problem as a binary classification task (flare vs. non-flare) based on a fixed prediction horizon, e.g., 24 hours.
We recast solar-flare forecasting as a continuous time-to-event problem, without the necessity...
The aurora borealis and aurora australis have been sources of inspiration, interest, and mystery to humans since ancient times. Due to recent advances in technology and space weather awareness, this “once in a lifetime” phenomenon has gained a wider reach. Major geomagnetic storms of 2023 and 2024 provided an initial experience with space weather effects for people who had not seen aurora...
We report an observation of long-lasting echo trains of lightning-generated whistlers recorded by the WBD instruments on the Cluster spacecraft near the plasmapause on 23 April 2002 during an interval of quasiperiodic emissions. The whistler traces exhibit spectral discontinuities, which split each of them into two branches around 3.6 kHz, with lower-frequency components being stronger and...
The Radiation Belt Forecasting Model and Framework (RBFMF) provides real-time forecasts and hindcasts of the radiation environment, which are used as inputs for the Satellite Charging Assessment Tool (Sat-CAT). Sat-Cat is used by satellite operators to model both long term and real-time effects of internal charging on satellite components. We will present the validation results of the RBFMF,...
The Rosetta mission followed comet 67P over heliospheric distances ranging from 1.25 to 3.6 AU. A come tis essentially a gas cloud embedded in the solar wind. When gas molecules are ionized they are picked up by the solar wind stream, the solar wind is “mass loaded”. The initial reaction of the solar wind to mass loading is to be deflected in the direction opposite to the solar wind electric...
We present an ongoing effort dedicated to the development of reproducible and operationally viable artificial intelligence models for solar flare forecasting. Our approach leverages the extensive archive of multi-wavelength solar images captured by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) using the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). Specifically, we employ a self-supervised learning strategy,...
A chain of CME events, occured on September 2014, led to strong perturbations in the interplanetary magnetic field and remarkable enhancements in the energetic particle fluxes measured at different heliospheric distances. We conducted a multi-spacecraft and multi-parameter analysis of such intense events, using observations from a fleet of spacecraft distributed in the inner Solar System, such...
Given the critical impact of accurate radiation belt modeling on space radiation environment restitution and forecasting, data assimilation has been employed to enhance physical models estimations since their earliest days. The method, allows the correction of the theoretical description of a given model, thanks to the ingestion of in-situ observations. Precisely, the widely adopted approach...
The CORonal mass ejection, solar eNERgetic particle and flare forecaSTing from phOtospheric sigNaturEs (CORNERSTONE) project focuses on the prediction of intense solar events through the application of machine learning (ML) techniques to real observational data. This domain poses significant challenges to reproducibility, primarily due to the heterogeneous nature of the data and the complexity...
To enhance preparedness for space weather (SWE) events, impact or event-based alerts have been implemented for delivering tailored SWE information via email, SMS and prototype dashboards to four of the ESA SWE service user domains covering ‘Aviation’, ‘downstream Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) services’, ‘Power Systems Operations’ and ‘Satellite Operations’. Since April 2022, over...
Waves in the cometary plasma environment occur at almost every activity level of a comet, both far away from the Sun and near its perihelion. They play an important role in the thermalization of the cometary pick-up ions and in the redistribution of energy. Upstream of the nucleus and for several thousands of kilometers downstream the gyrating motion of both the solar wind (SW) plasma and the...
Segmentation and characterization of solar coronal structures are essential for advancing our understanding of the solar atmosphere and accurately identifying key regions such as active regions and coronal holes which are precursors to phenomena like solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In parallel, it is crucial to incorporate onboard such artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms...
In previous years, space weather predictions have been developed as part of the Horizon 2020 funded projects PROGRESS (PRediction of Geospace Radiation Environment and Solar wind parameterS) and PAGER (Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic Storms and Energetic Radiation). Space weather predictions were initiated from observations of the Sun and provide a forecast of the radiation in...
The Lunar Surface, while exposed to different plasma and radiation regimes along its orbit around Earth, is also encountering time varying conditions when transitioning from quiet solar activity to solar storms, leading to CMEs crossing, EUV and X-rays fluxes changes or perturbed magnetospheric conditions. In addition, lunar surface topography and illumination changes lead to a variety of...
We present the new Solar Wind Scoreboard, which is hosted by NASA’s Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and developed with the community as part of the COSPAR ISWAT initiative. The Solar Wind Scoreboard will serve the space weather and science community as a hub for real-time solar wind predictions at Earth, Mars, and other locations of interest. It will allow users to view the...
The Van Allen Radiation belts are highly dynamic in both strength and location, meaning that the belts are difficult to predict for spacecraft operators. Forecasting models exist, in part, to minimise any additional damage caused by this natural hazard. Both physics-based and machine learning models already exist; physics-based models allow for a deeper understanding of the system, and...
We develop two artificial intelligence-based models (Models A and B) to predict time-evolving photospheric magnetic fields with an adjustable timestep, ranging from a few seconds to one solar rotation ahead or behind. Model A predicts future magnetic field data using three consecutive radial magnetic field datasets with a 12-hour cadence. Model B reconstructs evolving magnetic fields over the...
With an ever increasing interest in robotic and human exploration of Mars, the observation and understanding of space weather at Mars is becoming an important topic. The ultimate goal, as at Earth, will be to have a reliable capabilty of forecasting potential hazardous impacts of space weather events. The Martian plasma system, however, is very different from that at Earth, mainly as a...
As we prepare for human missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), solar observations off the Sun-Earth line (SEL) at different vantage points become critical for accurate space weather predictions. These observations will help to improve our forecasting and understanding of the environment that these missions will encounter outside of the Earth’s protective magnetic field. The National Oceanic...
Our Sun starts processes with a strong impact on Earth’s magnetosphere that can cause strong magnetospheric and ionospheric perturbations. This can lead to the creation of intense fast-changing magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems, which provoke strong and fast fluctuations in the geomagnetic field. Time-varying magnetic fields interact with the Earth’s conductivity, resulting in an...
Understanding how solar wind parameters control ionospheric structure remains a fundamental challenge in space weather prediction. This study applies unsupervised machine learning techniques to analyse EISCAT Svalbard radar observations (1998-2023) during winter months, revealing unexpected hierarchies in solar wind-ionosphere coupling.
K-means clustering with UMAP dimensionality reduction...
The Earth's outer radiation belt exhibits periodic variability across multiple time scales, with electron fluxes varying coherently at timescales comparable to the solar cycle, seasonal variations, Carrington rotations, and sub-Carrington periods. Each of these periodicities has been investigated separately, with different mechanisms proposed to explain each one. In this study, we combine...
Forecasting extreme solar events remains one of the most critical challenges in space weather. The May 2024 superstorm serves as a compelling example, underscoring the urgent need for a comprehensive methodological approach capable of predicting the full sequence of events leading to severe geomagnetic storms impacting Earth. In particular, the extreme G5 geomagnetic storm observed in May 2024...
Auroras can intuitively reflect the energy coupling between the Sun and the Earth and are an excellent indicator for monitoring and predicting space weather effects. Establishing an auroral oval model driven by the geomagnetic index, predicted up to three days ahead, can effectively assess energy transfer in space. Based on the data spanning from 2005 to 2016 obtained from DMSP/SSUSI, we...
Global numerical models are a key component of space weather forecasting. Recent work has highlighted the importance of cross-scale coupling in the ITM system, and the critical role of mesoscales in that coupling. Mesoscale phenomena, however, are difficult to quantitatively validate in the global models against observations. Data assimilative models can be used to reconstruct high-latitude...
Since the launch of ESA’s Swarm constellation, several physical quantities measured onboard the three satellites have been used to derive indices that support the study of near-Earth space processes. While multiple indices exist to quantify ionospheric plasma irregularities such as RODI (Rate Of change of electron Density Index), an analogous index for magnetic field fluctuations has not yet...
Geomagnetic activity indices, such as the well-known Kp index and the recently developed Hpo index, are essential for monitoring and forecasting space weather. These indices provide a global assessment of geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar activity based on data collected from a network of worldwide distributed geomagnetic observatories. Accurate forecasting of these indices is crucial...
One of the major challenges in space weather forecasting is to reliably predict the magnetic structure of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth space. In the framework of global MHD modelling, several efforts have been made to model the CME magnetic field from Sun to Earth. However, it remains challenging to deduce a flux-rope solution that can reliably model the...
Space weather in the Arctic presents significant challenges for users of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), particularly due to phase scintillations, which are rapid fluctuations in the signal phase, that can degrade positioning accuracy and in severe cases cause complete signal loss. The phase scintillation index serves as a standard metric for quantifying these fluctuations....
The aurora is a visually stunning phenomenon, yet its beauty can be inaccessible to individuals who are blind or visually impaired, making it more challenging for them to fully engage with its scientific and cultural significance. Within the project A Touch of Space Weather (ATOS)", we have developed innovative methods to make the aurora accessible and meaningful for these communities, thereby...
Space weather is increasingly recognised as a significant global hazard, with both widespread and region-specific impacts. This study investigates two major space weather events from May and October 2024, selected for their intensity, their occurrence during a time of high technological dependence, and their differing solar origins. The May event resulted from the interaction and compounding...
Relevant to Space Weather is to study the relations between the solar activity and the related solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed in the heliosphere. In this study, we analyze the relations between the solar activity (flare, CME, shocks) and the SEP peak intensities measured by MESSENGER, STEREO, and ACE spacecraft during 2010-2015. We investigate the 3D early kinematic profile of...
University of Calgary Space Remote Sensing (SRS) group operates a comprehensive network of autonomous space weather sensors from sub-auroral to polar cap latitudes. Currently this network consists of more than 120 sensors (auroral cameras, spectrographs, riometers, GNSS, and magnetometers) deployed across 33 sites in Canada, Alaska and Greenland. The operational framework supporting this...
The Korea AeroSpace Administration(KASA)/Korea Space Weather Center(KSWC) establishes a national Basic Plan for Space Radiowave Disaster Management every five years. From 2023 to 2027, KSWC is conducting an R&D program to enhance space weather forecasting and mitigation for critical infrastructure in telecommunications and aerospace. The program focuses on two domains: (1) AI- and data-driven...
In December 2022, the solar wind virtually disappeared, its density decreased to values of the order of 0.1 cm-3, first at Earth (25/12/2022) and then at Mars (26/12/2022). The impact of this event was dramatic for the two planetary plasma environments. In this study we focus on the spectral and statistical analysis of magnetic field fluctuations recorded by MMS in the magnetosheath...
The goal of this work is to more accurately define the regions that are hazardous to aviation due to space weather related radiation and turn that knowledge into an application that delivers actionable information to users. Our method for achieving these improvements relies on incorporating real time data from a network of dosimeters known as the Responsive Environmental Assessment Commercial...
The University of California, San Diego (UCSD) heliospheric analyses now provide a Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric GSM Bz forecast several days ahead of the current time. This forecast has a better than 70% chance of a hit rate to predict a geomagnetic storm associated with a Kp enhancement greater than 5 in a small plus or minus one-day window of the Bz drop below zero. Our automatic system...
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions of plasma and magnetic flux from the Sun’s corona that propagate through the heliosphere. They play a crucial role in driving space weather phenomena and are responsible for some of the most intense geomagnetic storms. Upon entering the interplanetary space, they are termed interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). In-situ...
We utilized various analysis methods to study a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed by SOHO’s LASCO on March 23, 2024, at 01:25 UT. The shock wave's radio signature in the metric range was detected by Callisto stations ALASKA-COHOE and Australia-ASSA, and the STEREO/SWAVES instrument recorded the interplanetary counterpart. Additionally, we gathered Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS)...
Orbital decay in low Earth orbit (LEO) is strongly influenced by solar activity, which modulates atomic and molecular density at high altitudes and thus increase the drag force. It is a significant concern for satellite operators at LEO in terms of constellation management and satellite operational lifetime perspective. This poster explores how variations across the solar cycle affect...
As part of the Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space Weather User Services (PECASUS) [1], the Space Research Centre of the Polish Academy of Sciences (CBK PAN) traditionally provides global experimental maps of critical frequency of F2 layer (foF2) depression and foF2 depression alerts, calculated in near real-time using data from ionosonde networks. According to the Agreement...
Geomagnetic storms, characterized by sudden disturbances in Earth's magnetic field, pose significant risks to technological systems and human activities machine learning (ML). Accurate forecasting of geomagnetic storm levels moderate, intense, and super critical for mitigating these impacts. This study assesses the performance of techniques in predicting geomagnetic indices, specifically the...
The group sunspot number is the longest direct record of solar activity.
However, cross-calibrating the available data from many individual observers poses a challenge.
Several reconstructions of group sunspot numbers exist, based on different cross-calibration strategies.
Beyond this, the methods also vary in how the data are linked across observers.
Some methods rely on sequential...
Investigations on ionospheric response during the super geomagnetic storm time (March 17 2015) are crucial. The VTEC predictability by regional/global ionospheric models (AfriTEC, IRI-2016, IRI-Plas 2017, GIM-CODE, and Nequick-G) is assessed by using root mean square error (RMSE) method and percentage deviation by comparing the GPS/GNSS-VTEC obtained from 10 IGS (International GNSS Service)...
In Brazil, equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) are the primary space weather phenomenon impacting the performance of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), causing signal disruptions and positional inaccuracies in agricultural machinery used for mapping fields, guiding equipment, and ensuring accurate planting, chemical application, and harvesting. As a result, farmers and stakeholders face...
The impact of solar flares on the Earth’s ionosphere has been studied for many decades using both experimental and theoretical approaches. However, the accuracy of predicting ionospheric layer dynamics in response to variations in solar radiation remains limited. In particular, understanding the vertical redistribution of charged particles in the ionosphere during flares with different...
A Lunar Environment Analysis Package that could be deployed by crew or robotically (AstroLEAP) is being prepared as a potential European contribution to a landed missions (e.g., Artemis IV) [1-3]. AstroLEAP aims to provide in-situ measurements to help understand the complex interactions and dynamics of the ‘dusty’ lunar surface with solar radiation, space plasma, energetic particles,...
We observed O I red (630 nm) and green (557.7 nm) nightglow using a spectrograph that observed 28 deg to 44 deg elevation in the sky in the north-east direction over a month around February 2022. We applied a 2-D extension to the Global Airglow (GLOW) model on the dataset. We show that neutral and electron densities input to the GLOW model require modifications to reproduce the observed...
Augura Space has developed the Augura Space Nowcast Platform, an open-access, research-oriented tool designed to support the space weather scientific community by providing centralized access to key space environment parameters in near-real time. The platform consolidates publicly available data from European and international providers focusing on solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field,...
Are you in Greenland, Iceland, The Faroe Islands, Norway or Denmark? Then our application can provide location-specific notifications during intense auroral activity on your iOS or Android platform. The interface presents a globe with the current auroral ovals from models driven by magnetic activity. Further it provides real-time monitoring of geomagnetic disturbances from ground-based...
Solar radio bursts are indicators of eruptive events in the solar corona and interplanetary space, but their detection and interpretation from dynamic spectra is complex and requires manual inspection. To support space weather forecasting, an automated classification system based on deep learning (YOLOv5) with ensemble methods was developed and validated on an international dataset covering...
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are one of the most relevant cause of geomagnetic storms. Early determination of their geo-effectiveness is a key asset to provide a possible alert on ground. The first crucial step of this process is to detect and characterise the CMEs in terms of size, kinematics (velocity, acceleration, direction of travel), mass and energy and this is possible by analysing...
Accurate real-time prediction of coronal mass ejection (CME) arrivals is essential for mitigating the effects of space weather events on Earth. With the increasing volume of heliospheric imager (HI) data, manual detection and tracking of CMEs is becoming increasingly time-consuming. To address this challenge, we developed the Solar Transient Recognition Using Deep Learning (STRUDL) model, a...
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are most commonly detected in white-light observations acquired by space-based coronagraphs. These instruments record a two-dimensional projection of the intrinsically three-dimensional CME structure onto the plane of the sky. As a result, coronagraphic measurements alone cannot unambiguously discriminate between frontside (Earth-directed) and backside CMEs.
The...
The BiRaKos project (Very Long-Range Bistatic Radar for Space Object Monitoring) aims to develop the concept and initial model of a bistatic radar system for monitoring space objects, with a strong focus on advanced signal processing methods.
The project's core objectives include the design of signal processing techniques using, in the project's initial phase, the data recorded by the LOFAR...
Identifying reliable coronal mass ejection (CME) interplanetary CME (ICME) pairs remains one of the major challenges in heliophysics. Despite the availability of multiple CME and ICME lists, association between solar eruptions and their interplanetary counterparts often differ significantly across studies. This inconsistency highlights the inherent uncertainty and complexity in tracing solar...
Building on the methods established in Edward-Inatimi et al. (2024), we calibrate an ambient solar-wind ensemble driven by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. Ensemble methods are powerful tools which allow forecast uncertainty to be better characterised. Using a coupled coronal-heliospheric modelling approach we generate ensembles using the WSA model, used operationally, with the Heliospheric...
Auroral electrons are not energetic enough to penetrate down into the mesosphere, therefore the influence of auroral activity on the upper mesospheric temperature (~87km altitude) has not been studied extensively. Only a handful of studies have investigated the response of upper-mesospheric temperature to auroral activity, and possible temperature enhancements have been revealed in individual...
Solar flares are powerful phenomena with significant implications for space weather. Understanding their characteristics and predicting their behaviour is crucial for mitigating potential risks and ensuring the safety of space-based operations. This research project aims to investigate whether ultraviolet (UV) measurements obtained from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite...
Based on in-situ measurements, this study compares two upstream solar wind regimes: at the Lagrange point L1 and near-Earth. We quantify the reliability of the OMNI dataset to represent the solar wind recorded in a near-Earth environment as an input to solar wind-magnetosphere interaction studies. In order to do this we compare the OMNI data with solar wind data directly recorded by spacecraft...
We present an updated catalog of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) detected by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and/or Solar Orbiter (SolO) during the period 2020 to 2023. These new generation of solar missions provide an unprecedented perspective on solar transients, enabling multi-point observations, and enhancing our understanding of CME evolution and propagation in the interplanetary...
We report an analysis of the event recorded during 1-10 June 2025 by the AATB neutron monitor (Almaty, Kazakhstan; 3340 m a.s.l.; Rc = 5.9 GV). The cosmic ray intensity decreased by about 12%, classifying the event as a large Forbush decrease. The solar source of the disturbances was active region AR 14100, which produced a series of M3.4 and M8.1 flares on 30-31 May 2025, accompanied by fast...
After a hiatus of nearly 50 years, there has been a resurgence of interest in
human exploration of the moon. Over the next few years, NASA and its partners will launch a series of lunar exploration missions with crewed missions beginning in ~2026. These plans for long-term sustained operations at the moon carry an inherently higher risk from space weather than previous endeavors. The intense...
Solar wind protons precipitating onto the lunar regolith is partially backscattered to space and leads to sputtering of surface materials. Particles emitted to space have a charge state distribution determined by the lunar regolith and independent of the precipitating particle. Recent measurements on the lunar surface by the NILS instrument[1] on Chang’e-6 and the ASAN instrument[2] on...
High-energy particles originating either from the Sun (i.e., Solar Energetic Particles – SEPs) or our Galaxy (Galactic Cosmic Rays – GCRs) have been observed for decades with spacecraft and ground-based instruments. However, there is a gap in the energy spectral region from beyond the nominal science-grade spacecraft instrument (100 MeV) to that of ground-based recordings. One of the...
The chromosphere plays a pivotal role by linking the Sun interior to its interplanetary environment. It indeed regulates energy and mass transfer into the corona and solar wind, particularly during small-scale magnetic flux emergence events. The interplay between shock-driven processes and magnetic reconnection is known to be key for the chromospheric heating, however any characterisation of...
Solar energetic events are often "eruptive", sending mass into the corona and often into space as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). We examine a few energetic events using chromospheric imaging spectroscopy from the Mees CCD Imaging Spectrograph (MCIS) and coronal imaging from the Transition Region And Coronal Explorer (TRACE) and the EUV Imaging Telescope (EIT) to inquire about the mass...
Climatological modeling of ionospheric plasma convection, driven by parameters such as solar wind velocity and density, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) components, and geomagnetic indices, has been extensively investigated over the past decades. Interest in this topic continues to grow, both for its scientific importance, owing to the complex plasma processes it reveals, and for its...
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are among the most significant events impacting space weather. Their role in triggering severe geomagnetic disturbances has prompted ongoing research to predict their velocities and arrival times on Earth. During their eruption, CMEs undergo rapid acceleration at lower altitudes in the solar atmosphere, reaching speeds ranging from 100 km/s to over 3000 km/s....
Timely radiation environment data are increasingly critical for satellite design, operations, and resilience. ASRO and ESI present a commercial pathway to scalable space weather observations, starting with a Low Earth Orbit demonstration on ESI’s mission carrying ASRO’s Relativistic Electron and Proton Experiment (REPE). The payload suite also includes complementary third-party sensors: a...
The Earth and outer space environment are closely interconnected and mutually dependent. Atmosphere is one of the Earth's spheres that can rapidly show us immediate visually manifested consequences of increasing space activities. Impact of rocket launch and space debris reentry pollution represents an injection of various contaminants in the form of gases and aerosols in the stratosphere,...
There has been a rapid increase in auroral tourism in the European Arctic this millennium. The interest in seeing the Northern Lights has created business opportunities in the north. Local and migrant entrepreneurs offer Northern Lights tours in various forms with the ultimate goal of viewing the aurora. Training courses on the physics behind the Northern Lights increase the scientific...
In the regular meteorological forecasts, it is important to provide the public with reliable data and information on the physical phenomena expected, on the technological systems exposed and also to indicate the actions available to the public: go and look at the phenomena or act preventively to face the expected impacts. Complex information needs to be presented in a way that can be...
Understanding ionospheric plasma dynamics under disturbed space weather conditions is critical for ensuring the reliability of satellite-based communication and navigation systems especially in the context of technological expansion into sensitive regions such as the Arctic. This study conducts a comparative investigation of ionospheric plasma responses to geomagnetic storm events during the...
In this study, we analyze and compare the Ionosphere-Thermosphere (I-T) response over Central Europe to the two severe geomagnetic storms occurred in October 2024 and January 2025. Ionosonde observations from Rome (41.8°N, 25.5°E) and Juliusruh (54.6°N, 13.4°E) were manually validated and used to characterize ionospheric variability and to retrieve thermospheric parameters—neutral composition,...
Ionospheric spatial TEC (total electron content) gradients can be computed using TEC maps. There are different types of TEC maps. For example, simple TEC maps use only ground-based GNSS TEC data; the global ionospheric maps (GIMs) that are created using both ground and space ionospheric data. Another significant difference between the two types of TEC maps is that the GNSS TEC maps have gaps,...
An important direction within the core project of the Geological Institute of Romania, entitled "Geomagnetism, a modern tool in space weather forecasting and rapid response to associated natural hazards for the protection of critical infrastructures and national air traffic security", is the study of geomagnetic storms and the methodology for complex analysis of these phenomena. In the present...
Recent advancements in the EUHFORIA solar wind modelling framework, developed at KU Leuven, have introduced more realistic Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) models, including the Flux Rope in 3D (FRi3D) model. The FRi3D model incorporates a flux rope magnetic field configuration, offering a more realistic depiction of CME magnetic field structures as observed in coronagraph images. Additionally, due...
Magnetic reconnection is a ubiquitous process in the solar atmosphere. During reconnection, the topology of magnetic field lines changes and magnetic energy is transferred to plasma kinetic, thermal, or non-thermal energy. It is believed that magnetic reconnection is an underlying mechanism that powers various energetic phenomena in the solar atmosphere. However, numerical modeling of magnetic...
Metis, the coronagraph on board Solar Orbiter, is an externally occulted instrument with a field of view (FOV) spanning 1.7°–3.4°, which, over the course of a typical spacecraft orbit, corresponds to heliocentric distances from 1.7 to about 10 solar radii. Metis operates with two radiometric channels: one measures coronal emission in a narrow ultraviolet (UV) band centered on the H I Lyman-α...
Within previous studies, the relationship of microwave signatures in solar flares and in-situ Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) fluxes and spectra has been investigated. This study continues and expands earlier efforts, considering both electron and proton signatures in relation to solar microwave emission in the 8-17 GHz range.
The primary aim of the study was to confirm previous results,...
CRNS estimate the soil moisture by measuring fast and epithermal neutrons generated by cosmic rays in the atmosphere. Since hydrogen in water mod- erates the neutrons, wetter soils reduce neutron counts. After calibration with local samples, the neutron signal is converted into soil water content, representing an area of several hundred meters and a depth of 10–30 cm. However, these...
Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events pose significant threats to space-based assets and human spaceflight. Accurate and timely prediction of SEP event profiles is crucial for space weather forecasting. This study presents a physics-based SEP event modeling approach, enhanced by Bayesian optimization techniques, and applies it to the well-observed October 2021 SEP event. This event,...
This work focuses on the cross-comparison and validation of CME modeling and arrival prediction tools. We present modeled CME propagation and expected arrival times based on several empirical and more elaborate physics-based models. We discuss the simple arrival predictions purely based on the estimated CME propagation speed and compare them with the results from the drag-based model (DBM) and...
Bernard Foing(1,2,3), Brigitte Schmieder(1,2,4,5), Michel Blanc(1,2,6), Stefaan Poedts(5,7), Tinatin Baratashvili(5), Mojtaba Raouf (2,3)
1COSPAR Panel on Exploration, 2LUNEX SpaceHub, 3Leiden University, 4Paris Observatory, 5KU Leuven, 6IRAP Toulouse, 7UMCS, Lublin
Following recommendations from COSPAR PEX Panel on Exploration (Ehrenfreund et al 2012, Blanc et al 2025), and Horizon 2061...
Solar eruptive events are complex phenomena that typically include filament eruptions, flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and compressive/shock waves. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large expulsions of plasma and magnetic fields from the solar corona into the heliosphere. The dynamic behavior of solar prominences and filaments serves as a precursor to CMEs, which can disrupt Earth's...
Airglow phenomena serve as essential tracers for understanding the dynamics and interactions within the Earth's upper atmosphere. In this study, we introduce a machine learning-based approach for classifying airglow images captured by the all-sky camera at the Shigaraki (SGK) observatory. Our objective is to automate the identification of gravity wave signatures within these images,...
Forecasting solar wind conditions at the Lagrange L1 point is determinant for mitigating space weather risks caused by high-velocity streams. As stated in several recent papers, the variation of the solar wind velocity is a key proxy for space weather events like solar storms and geomagnetic perturbations. In the light of Augura Space's mission to make AI driven space weather forecasting...
Impulsive Solar Energetic Particle (SEPs) Events are known to accelerate particles of different species. One particular characteristic of these impulsive events is the enhancement of the 3He/4He ratio, on what we call 3He-rich events. 3He events are usually associated with Type III bursts and non-relativistic electron events. It is speculated that solar jets are the impulse events that lead to...
Among the various space weather phenomena, Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) events pose several significant risks: they can damage satellite electronics, increase radiation exposure for astronauts, and impact high-altitude flights, especially over polar regions. Traditionally, these events are monitored using space-based particle detectors or indirectly through ground-based instruments that...
Flickering aurora, which appears in association with bright auroral arcs, consists of patchy structures a few kilometers in horizontal size that rapidly blink on and off at a frequency of about 10 Hz. Although the generation process of this phenomenon is not yet fully understood, the close similarity between the flickering period and the frequency of O^+ -mode electromagnetic ion cyclotron...
Although the Carrington Event of 1859 is typically cited as the first extreme space weather event of the scientific era, it is not the earliest example of modern human technology being impacted by geomagnetic activity. The literature includes reliable accounts of disturbances to telegraph equipment during geomagnetic storms dating to the late 1840s, but the rediscovery by Cade III (*Space...
Space weather events, such as solar flares and geomagnetic storms, pose significant risks to technological systems, including power grids, satellite operations, aviation, and navigation systems. In South Africa, the South African National Space Agency (SANSA) serves as a central station for monitoring and disseminating space weather information, including warnings and alerts. However, the...
The Earth’s magnetosphere evolves dynamically under the influence of solar activity. The solar wind is a persistent stream of plasma carrying the interplanetary magnetic field and continuously interacts with the magnetosphere, governing its structure and behavior. Transient solar phenomena, such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and High-Speed Solar Wind Streams (HSSs), further modulate this...
Geomagnetic substorms are major phenomena in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system that intensify the aurora and often pose a threat to technology on Earth and in geospace. Substorms are identifiable through a strong westward electrojet that forms to close the substorm current wedge, which creates a recognizable peak in the AL index. Global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD)-based models struggle to...
The Earth’s inner magnetosphere can exhibit significant variability in the plasma density, which directly influences wave propagation in this environment. These waves play a central role in the dynamics of the relativistic and ultra-relativistic radiation belts' electron flux. Changes in plasma density, such as those occurring in the plasmasphere region, impact the group velocity of waves and,...
Currently, EISCAT are deploying EISCAT_3D, the most advanced volumetric imaging radar for atmospheric, ionospheric and near-Earth space investigations. The tri-static, phased-array incoherent scatter radar is located in Skibotn (inland from Tromsø, Norway), Karesuvanto (Finland, north of Kiruna), and Kaiseniemi (Sweden, west of Kiruna).
EISCAT_3D follows the long legacy of EISCAT radars,...
During the extreme geomagnetic storm on 10 May 2024, a pronounced super-fountain effect was triggered by prompt penetration electric fields (PPEF) and pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) electric fields. The SWARM-A satellite, with its favorable orbit through the dusk sector, captured detailed in-situ data revealing global-scale ionospheric responses. Strong equatorial uplift was observed,...
Accurate modeling of inner magnetospheric dynamics requires quantifying the cross-scale coupling processes that control electron transport, acceleration, and loss. Recent results indicate that ring current models tend to overestimate electron fluxes in the 10–50 keV energy range during geomagnetic storms, suggesting that an important loss mechanism is missing in the pre-midnight sector....
Energetic particle precipitation (EPP) is a key driver of chemical and dynamical processes in the middle atmosphere,influencing ozone concentrations, radiative heating, and large-scale circulation patterns. Investigating EPP impacts in observations and historical simulations is complicated by the sporadic nature of EPP events, sparse and noisy datasets, and the presence of internal atmospheric...
In the evolving landscape of 21st-century space science, forecasting space weather events such as solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is crucial yet challenging. Solar flares are intense bursts of radiation caused by the release of magnetic energy in active regions and are often accompanied by CMEs. These events can significantly impact Earth's space environment, causing disruptions...
In the equatorial sector, ionospheric irregularities are known to impact radio-based technologies, such as the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), by delaying, scattering and diffracting, signals travelling through them. Satellite Based Augmentation Systems (SBAS), broadcasting corrections to single-frequency GNSS users including ionospheric corrections, present challenges at such...
ESA NoM (ESA Network of Models) is a unified data engineering platform that bridges the gap between space weather forecasting centers and end-users through automated model pipelines and standardized alert delivery. Building on its proven capabilities for model integration and collaborative workflows, ESA NoM addresses the critical need for timely, actionable space weather information during...
ESA is implementing an enhanced Space Weather monitoring system consisting of missions to the solar wind for forecasting space weather events and the Distributed Space Weather Sensor System (D3S) to monitor the state of the Earth environment and space weather effects. D3S is built as a system of systems utilizing hosted payload opportunities as well as a range of dedicated missions addressing...
As part of the EMC working group activities on prospective M-class missions, a series of Spacecraft-Plasma Interaction Software (SPIS) simulations were run in various relevant environments for both Plasma Observatory and M-Matisse to evaluate the effect spacecraft charging and accommodation affect plasma payload performance, with some of the results of which can be showcased here
For several years now, the Space Weather (SWE) Data Centre has been forming the backbone of ESA’s Space Weather data systems. Providing direct access to ESA’s Space Weather datasets from both space-based and ground-based sensors it is a fundamental part of ESA’s Space Weather activities. To keep the data systems secure and to make the data centre ready for future demands and developments, ESA...
Predicting the geomagnetic effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) remains a major challenge in space weather forecasting. Spacecraft positioned upstream of L1, referred to as sub-L1 monitors, offer a promising observational approach to enhance both the lead time and accuracy of geomagnetic storm predictions.
Between November 2022 and June 2024, STEREO-A passed approximately 0.05 AU ahead...
In the recent years, Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have been identified as a promising approach for both forward and inverse modeling problems in physical systems. In particular, applied to Radiation Belt modelling, it has been shown that this methodology is able, to some extent, to reconstruct, from in-situ observation of particle fluxes, the diffusion coefficients which drive the...
In October 2022, during the Solar Orbiter's perihelion passage, the Metis coronagraph captured an exceptionally large coronal mass ejection (CME). This observation was part of a dedicated program that provided high temporal (20 s cadence) and spatial resolution (4400 km per pixel) images, with a field of view extending from 1.7 to 3 solar radii, at a distance of 0.3 AU from the Sun.
The...
The aurora, as a captivating and visually stunning phenomenon, provides a unique opportunity to engage the public with space weather science. Within the ESWAN group, we have been reviewing various online tools that can enhance the scientific community's outreach efforts, enabling more effective communication of space weather concepts to diverse audiences. These tools range from webinar...
Understanding the coupling between the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere at local scales remains a key challenge in space weather research. This study examines the relationship between localized geomagnetic and ionospheric perturbations through a comparative analysis of two region-specific indices: the Local Disturbance index (LDi) and the Perturbed Total Electron Content index (PTEC). The...
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are among the most impactful solar transients, capable of driving intense space weather phenomena, including geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The near-Sun CME velocity plays a vital role in space weather forecasting, serving as a key parameter for estimating ICME arrival time, SEP intensity, and overall geoeffectiveness. While...
Due to the amazing worldwide success of the Planeterrella experiment developed by Jean Lilensten, our research group has invested a few years in constructing and exposing this fascinating experiment for both students and the general public. Presentations both onsite, at the Institute of Space Science in Romania, and offsite, at different locations in the country have been performed. Our team...
The Van Allen radiation belts are governed by a delicate balance of production and loss processes operating over timescales from fractions of a second to thousands of years. At Earth, these structures consist of a relatively stable inner belt and a highly dynamic outer belt, separated by the slot region. This region is typically depleted of high-energy fluxes and is regarded as a safe zone for...
We propose a novel sparsity enhancement strategy for regression tasks, based on learning a data-adaptive kernel metric, i.e., a shape matrix, through 2-Layered kernel machines [2]. The resulting shape matrix, which defines a Mahalanobis-type deformation of the input space, is then decomposed via Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), allowing us to identify the most informative directions. This...
Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) pose a serious risk to technological infrastructures, and their assessment requires reliable estimates of the surface geoelectric field, which depends on the Earth’s subsurface electrical conductivity. Long-period magnetotelluric (MT) surveys are ideal for this purpose, but many broadband MT datasets, originally acquired for geological exploration,...
Solar Orbiter executed its first dedicated fast wind Solar Orbiter Observing Plan (SOOP) in October 2023 to investigate the origins and release mechanisms of the fast solar wind. A high-speed stream reached Solar Orbiter (0.45 AU, –32°) on 24 October, lasting several days, and was observed slightly earlier at Parker Solar Probe (0.65 AU, –71°) on 22 October. Ballistic backmapping confirms that...
Solar flares are large eruptions of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun that can affect Earth's atmosphere and our technologies (e.g., radio communications). Flares are identified by the arrival of their energetic photons at Earth, meaning that their space-weather effects occur at the same time we become aware that a flare is in progress - this makes it essential for us to forecast them in...
Solar eruptions are classified as sympathetic when they are triggered nearly synchronously but originate from distinct regions on the solar surface, likely due to physical interactions between them. Since the initial investigation of this phenomenon by Richardson et al. (1951), various studies have sought to systematically identify these sympathetic flares from a statistical perspective, but...
Space weather poses a significant threat to critical technologies, including satellite communications, GPS navigation, and power grids, as demonstrated by past severe events like the 1989 Hydro-Quebec blackout and the 2003 'Halloween event'. With Solar Cycle 25 entering a particularly active phase since 2022, understanding and predicting these phenomena is crucial for mitigating economic...
SAWS-ASPECS is a comprehensive toolset developed to support current and future space exploration missions through detailed modeling, monitoring, and forecasting of radiation environments. SAWS-ASPECS leverages real-time space weather inputs to characterize both average and extreme particle flux conditions, with particular relevance to high-impact events such as Ground Level Enhancements...
Accurate forecasting of space weather disturbances is of critical importance, as geomagnetic storms and solar activity can significantly impact satellite communications, navigation systems, aviation, and power grids. Reliable prediction of these phenomena is therefore essential for safeguarding critical infrastructures and ensuring operational resilience. This study introduces a hybrid...
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of particle acceleration in the heliosphere, leading to geoeffective events in the Earth's environment.
Observations showing the buildup of CMEs reveal that the start of CME is the existence of a flux rope with a cool filament or not near the solar surface. Instability like torus or kink instability leads to the rise of the flux rope in the...
Single Event Effects (SEEs) represent a major reliability concern for spacecraft electronics, especially in highly dynamic space weather environments. We present a demonstrator using SEE-U (https://www.space-suite.com/see-u/ ), an open-source tool developed by Artenum in collaboration with ONERA, originally designed to model Single Event Upset (SEU) cross-sections and compute Soft Error Rates...
For decades, it has now been established that space radiations have a direct impact on astronauts’ health (Apollo missions, astronauts on ISS, …). Furthermore, with the renewed interest in space exploration (lunar bases, travel to the Moon and Mars, …), the radiation protection is a key parameter to build an efficient housing against cosmic rays and solar flares. TRAD has developed and...
The Weak Signal Propagation Reporter (WSPR) network provides a unique global dataset for monitoring ionospheric conditions and their impact on radio communication. Building upon previous studies that demonstrated the potential of WSPR for near-real-time ionospheric monitoring, we present a new system developed at the Space Research Centre PAS that integrates WSPR data with the PRL product to...
On 8 June 2024 at approximately 00:45 UT, a massive solar prominence erupted from Active Region 13697, located at approximately 18°S and 69°W on the solar disk, as seen from Earth's perspective. The eruption was accompanied by an M9.8-class solar flare and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME), which induced a noticeable deflection of pre-existing coronal streamer structures, as observed in...
We report a recent modeling study of the global propagation of solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes between 30 solar radii and 1 au for impulsive events. We utilize a modified and expanded version of the EPREM model for global particle transport, coupled with an observation-driven solar wind description from the MAS heliospheric MHD solution. A power law distribution of protons with a sharp...
A dataset of 102 geomagnetic sudden commencements (SC) observed between 2020 and 2024 was analyzed using ground measurements from eight geomagnetic observatories located at middle and low latitudes. The network includes three observatories in Italy, together with one in India, one in Australia, and three in the region associated with the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). For each event, we...
Continuous ground-based observations of accelerated electrons are a central element of space weather monitoring and research. Harmful impacts on technological systems are costly and should be reduced in times of rising activity in space. The DLR contributes to this international task by providing reliable radio observations by its own CALLISTO (Compound Astronomical Low frequency Low cost...
Sometimes, strong solar energetic particle events can be observed by neutron monitors on the ground level, and this is commonly called a "Ground-Level Enhancement" (GLE) of their count rates over the background. Here we report a such event that happened on 8 June 2024 and was consequently numbered as #75. It was caused by a solar flare originating from the active region 13697 (13664 on the...
Irregularities in the ionospheric layer can cause rapid fluctuations in the amplitude, phase, and direction of arrival of received GNSS signals, commonly referred to as ionospheric scintillation. These irregularities pose significant challenges to GNSS-based applications, especially in high-latitude regions where such disturbances are more pronounced. Recent advances in deep learning offer...
Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are often used to provide positioning and timing for ground-based users. The low- and mid-latitude GNSS receivers are used to study periods where the Zambia GPS receiver observed high total electron content (TEC). To investigate the ionospheric changes, several receivers located in Namibia, Zambia, Kenya, and Uganda were utilised from 23 Feb to 1 Mar...
The Global Ionospheric Scintillation Model (GISM) is planned to operate as an ionospheric scintillation modelling and prediction tool as part of the Ionospheric Monitoring and Prediction Center (IMPC) services at DLR. Currently, the GSM model is only able to cover the low-latitude regions and our efforts are focused on extending the model to high and polar latitudes. For this purpose, we use...
Dynamic spatiotemporal variations in the electrical currents flowing in the ionosphere and near-Earth space result in rapid fluctuations in the time derivative of the geomagnetic field at ground level. Given the conductive nature of the ground, geomagnetic induction generates a geoelectric field capable of inducing an undesired current when aligned with a large-scale conductor on the ground,...
This poster presents the results of the End-User Engagement Working Group of the European Space Weather and Space Climate Association (E-SWAN) that were partially obtained through two Topical Discussion Meetings (TDMs) organized during the European Space Weather Week (ESWW) in 2023 and 2024. The meetings focused on fostering dialogue between space weather end-users and service providers.
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Recent results show that the solar wind helium abundance and normalized cross helicity can be used to classify solar wind from continuously and intermittently open source regions. In the associated parameter space, ICMEs appear where the helium abundance is enhanced and the cross helicity is low. This region of the plane also has an enhanced solar wind compressibility. Using 30 years of Wind...
The Geomagnetism Area of the Instituto Geográfico Nacional (IGN) of Spain conducts a real-time monitoring of several geophysical parameters with the aim of detect and analyse geomagnetic storms. By releasing a series of reports on the most severe geomagnetic storms of recent times, the Area is reaffirming its commitment to space weather research. This poster presentation serves as an...
In late September 2025, NASA’s IMAP mission is scheduled to be launched. It is expected that the space weather real-time data stream received by the IMAP Active Link for Real-time (I-ALiRT) network will become publicly available in early 2026. The HESPERIA team is preparing to implement a generalized Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE) based on the experience derived...
One of the most important scientific objectives is to comprehend the relationships between the sun, the space weather that generates storms, and the impacts on Earth. The ionosphere is greatly impacted by geomagnetic storms, which are very severe space weather phenomena. Ionospheric perturbations during intense geomagnetic storms caused the disturbance in Earth's magnetic field. A geomagnetic...
K. Sievers-1, L. Nikitina- 2, R. Fiori- 2
1 VC – Vereingung Cockpit, German Airline Pilots´ Association, 60549 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
2 Canadian Hazards Information Service, Natural Resources Canada, Canada.
What’s happening ?
The Sun sometimes releases bursts of energy that disturb Earth’s ionosphere. These disturbances, known as ionospheric scintillation, can impact GNSS...
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, such as Brazil’s Amazonia-1, are subject to atmospheric drag resulting from
variations in thermospheric density, which intensify during periods of elevated solar activity. This study
investigates how space weather phenomena—specifically geomagnetic storms and solar flares—influence the
orbital decay of Amazonia-1 between 2021 and 2023. Real orbital data...
Extreme historical events in space weather have highlighted the vulnerability of certain infrastructures, ranging from satellite systems and GNSS to power grids. Among the various affected sectors, aviation is especially sensitive to space weather events. In this context, ionospheric scintillations caused by irregularities in the ionosphere can severely degrade GNSS data in equatorial and...
In the last decades, the impacts of solar activity on grounded infrastructure through the interaction of the Earth’s magnetic field with the solar wind have been classified as a major natural hazard in many mid-high latitude countries. Induced geoelectric currents are well known to affect grounded infrastructure like the high voltage power grid, causing damage to transformers. Less studied...
Many forecasts regarding the propagation direction, size, and orientation of CMEs rely on simplistic models that make basic assumptions about the geometry, which are not known to be true. In most cases, these models are either a simple cone model or the very popular graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model. Additionally, it is known that any analysis derived from using these models can be...
The Horizon Europe FARBES (Forecast of Actionable Radiation Belt Scenarios) project aims to develop methods for forecasting the dynamics of radiation belts trapped electron fluxes in an operational context. Our goal is to predict the evolution of an event over several days from its onset, as observed through geomagnetic indices, rather than predicting the occurrence of an event in the...
The Earth’s radiation belts are a complex system which dynamics spans many orders of magnitude and impacts satellites instruments and electronics. Forecasting and reanalyzing the overall state of this population is of prime importance for Space Weather and Space Climate activities.
For years, ONERA has been developing a model of the Earth’s radiation belts dynamics based on the Fokker-Plank...
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions of magnetized plasma that transport momentum and energy from the solar corona into the heliosphere and represent a major driver of space weather. Accurate forecasting of CME time of arrival (ToA) at Earth remains a key challenge for operational prediction centers. The WSA-ENLIL-Cone model, available at the NASA/Community Coordinated...
The Earth’s Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere (MIT) system is strongly controlled by the laws of electrodynamics, which include significant contributions from all three components. Today, we face a growing need for a better representation of this MIT system, at all latitudes due to the growing use of GNSS satellites for positioning, which face accuracy and forecasting challenges that are...
Efforts have been undertaken by the solar community since 2010 to revise both the Sunspot Number and the Group Number series (SN and GN). I will present our latest achievements and our plans for the near future.
First, since the last revision of SN in 2015, significant progress has been made in recovering and digitizing historical datasets, notably including the Mittheilungen from the...
The fast changes in geomagnetic field during a solar storm result in so-called geomagnetically induced currents in long conducting installations, like pipelines, railway catenary and overhead power lines. Geomagnetically induced currents in overhead power lines can trigger outages or damage of transformers and even large-scale blackouts.
A less severe and also less known, but in our opinion...
[Abstract:][1] It's a user-friendly portal/gateway which is bundled with multi-Earth observations in which the visualizations are categorized in form of Earth Indicators, Natural Hazards, Environmental Threats, Ecosystem Health and Monitoring Climate. This web app is loaded with 18 Earth Indicators, 18 Geo Maps, 12 Earth Engine Apps, 18 Infographic Data Analysis in Tableau followed by 09...
The physical mechanisms shaping the electron flux patterns in the inner boundary of the Earth’s outer radiation belt under the influence of different solar wind structures are well established in the literature. These processes are closely linked to the source and seed population injections, as well as wave-particle interactions that efficiently accelerate electrons crossing L-shells. The...
We performed full Stokes spectropolarimetric observations of loop footpoints in the active region NOAA 13363 during a C-class flare with the GREGOR Infrared Spectrograph (GRIS) on 2023 July 16. The observed spectral region included the photospheric Si I 10 827 A and Ca I 10 839 A lines and the chromospheric He I 10 830 A triplet. Simultaneously, high-cadence and high-resolution imaging...
Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) may pose significant risks to power transmission systems during geomagnetic storms, making their study a uniquely interdisciplinary challenge at the intersection of space weather, geophysics, and power engineering. This work investigates the influence of shield wires (ShW), which are grounded conductors installed along transmission lines, on GIC...
We present an efficient and interactive framework for the enhanced exploration, interpretation and scientific analysis of spatio-temporal and volumetric ionospheric data. The strategy is targeted at the monitoring process of adaptive experiments, offering a fast decision-making through real-time data processing, employing a wide range of tools in order to interpret ionospheric data. In our...
A primary INTERMAGNET vision, from the outset in the late 1980s, has been to create a global, real-time geomagnetic observatory network – an observation system of Earth and near-Earth Space, capable of providing information that supports operational services for the benefit of society. For space weather applications the global coverage availability in real-time is key to this.
Although many...
Solar activity, space weather, extreme meteorological events, global warming, earthquakes, geomagnetic field secular variations all leave their imprint on the lower ionosphere and thermosphere (LIT), this complex interface where neutral atmosphere and space environment interact.
The objective of the original "International Meridian Circle Program (IMCP)", a proposal for an international...
X-ray and EUV solar flare emission cause increases in the Earth's dayside ionospheric electron density. While the response of the lower ionosphere to X-rays is well studied, the delay between EUV flare emission and the response of the ionospheric F-region had not been investigated. Here we calculated the delays between incident He II 304 Å emission and the TEC response for 10 powerful solar...
Global Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and multi-fluid coronal models are crucial in enhancing our comprehension and prediction of space weather. This study provides new insights into the impact of source and sink terms on a two-fluid model of the partially ionised solar atmosphere and its implications for the dynamics of the solar corona, particularly in the context of space weather forecasting....
The origin, acceleration, and anisotropy of suprathermal ions in the interplanetary medium remain poorly understood till date. These ions serve as seed populations for solar energetic particles (SEP) which are capable of damaging space assets. In this study, we investigate the directional spectra of suprathermal ions during quiet solar wind conditions in January-November, 2024. We utilize in...
IonoNet is a project of a cooperative radar network of multistatic Pseudo Random Code (PRC) ionosondes for oblique ionospheric soundings placed in different points of the European territories; in this way, it will be possible to compare the ionospheric characteristics relative to points separated by about a few hundred to thousands of kilometres. The project activities concern the design,...
The vertical ionogram offers key information about the ionosphere, including critical frequencies, virtual heights, and electron density, which are essential for ionospheric studies. In contrast, oblique ionosondes can probe the ionosphere above areas like oceans or challenging terrain where installing vertical sounders is impractical. They can also generate more ionograms using several...
This study investigates the response of the ionosphere–thermosphere system over Europe during the severe geomagnetic storm of May 2024. Between May 7 and 11, multiple X-class solar flares and at least five Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. The initial CME impacted Earth at 12:30 UTC on May 10, triggering a geomagnetic disturbance that led to a pronounced negative...
The ionosphere affects trans-ionospheric radio signals even at GHz frequencies and in the bands that are used for satellite based positioning and navigation. Density measurements by Langmuir probes on the Swarm satellites at altitudes between about 450 and 510 km can be used to roughly characterize the total effects on GNSS signals during a period of about 12 years since the Swarm launch....
This study provides a comprehensive investigation into the ionospheric response over the African sector during the extreme (G5 scale) geomagnetic superstorm of 10 May 2024. The storm was characterized by a dramatic depression in the SymH index to nearly
$-518\,nT$, highlighting its extraordinary intensity. To examine the ionosphere's behavior under such extreme conditions, we utilized...
Pole-to-pole VTEC data from the Madrigal GNSS network on May 10–12 and October 10–12, 2024, were analyzed to diagnose the ionospheric response during the May superstorm and the October severe storm. VTEC, superimposed with S4 and Sigma-phi scintillation, was used to study the spatiotemporal evolution of small-scale irregularities, while ROTI data from the ISEE GNSS network complemented the...
Space Weather refers to the interaction between the Sun and the Earth's near-space environment and has far-reaching impacts on various technologies. The impact of solar radiation and solar wind on the Ionosphere can affect, for example, the availability and reliability of communication and navigation systems and services. To mitigate these effects, appropriate space weather products/services...
We present work carried out during the joint Bulgarian-Austrian research project on solar chromospheric and coronal activity. The aims of the project are to develop observing capability in Bulgaria to complement Austrian monitoring instruments, and to study chromospheric signatures of quiet sun and pre-eruptive active regions and multi-wavelength manifestation of solar eruptive phenomena,...
EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset) is a widely used 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation for forecasting the propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere. Over the years, EUHFORIA has undergone significant development such as the creation of dedicated visualization tools and the continuous addition of advanced CME models. Among these, the...
Solar photospheric line-of-sight magnetograms are easier to infer than vector magnetograms since the line-of-sight component (Blos) can be obtained from total intensity and circular polarization signals only, unlike the perpendicular component, which depends on harder-to-measure linear polarization. However, Blos is generally not physically meaningful although it is used in a variety of Space...
On 28 April 2025 at 12:33 CEST occurred a major power outage in Spain and Portugal. Spain's electrical grid was down for almost 23 hours before the systems were back up. Outage affected traffic light, streetlamps, phone network, domestic and international transport, etc. Next day, information about space weather was requested by ESA and by the Spanish Space Agency to the Space Weather Group at...
The Earth’s magnetic field is invisible and cannot be sensed by the human body. Yet, it plays a crucial role in sustaining life on the planet shielding us from harmful solar and cosmic radiation. Auroras are shaped by the magnetic field and are thus not only spectacles of immense beauty, but also concrete reminders of this important shield.
Auroras themselves need no help grabbing the...
This study presents predictions of ionospheric irregularities using the ROTI index near the Northern peak of the equatorial ionization anomaly. A feedforward backpropagation Neural Network with a NARX time-series approach was applied, using dual-frequency GPS-SCINDA data from Helwan, Egypt (29.86°N, 31.32°E) over Solar Cycle 24 (2009–2017). The model incorporated diurnal, seasonal, solar, and...
Ionospheric scintillation poses significant challenges to GNSS positioning accuracy and reliability, particularly in the Arctic Region, where geomagnetic activity is most pronounced. This study presents a machine learning framework for predicting phase scintillation events in GNSS receivers across the Arctic, with a primary focus on Greenland, using near real-time solar wind parameters and...
On 24th December 2024, the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) achieved its closest approach to the Sun, reaching a radial distance of only 9.86 solar radii, where no spacecraft has ever been before. In this study we investigate both the global and local structure and the dynamical evolution of the coronal magnetic field during PSP’s passage to closest at distances below 20 solar radii, i.e. basically...
In order to investigate the sources and the physical mechanisms for the propagation of the Slow Solar Wind (SSW), it is essential to analyze and modeling solar data in the middle corona which determines the large scale structure and also the origin of the SSW (from 1.5 up to 6 solar radii).
We have analyzed high temporal frequency visible light observations acquired by Metis coronagraph on...
Magnetosheath jets, transient plasma structures of enhanced dynamic pressure, can excite ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves in the magnetosphere impacting the magnetopause. These ULF waves transport energy into the ionosphere, making it essential to quantify their contribution to ionospheric energy deposition. In this study, we combine observations from the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS)...
The COSPAR International Space Weather Action Teams (ISWAT) H4 Planetary Space Weather cluster is concerned with space weather at the planetary bodies other than Earth.With the current NASA’s emphasis on human exploration to Mars the H4 cluster’s focus will be more geared toward space weather at Mars for better scientific understanding of the environment at mars as well we for providing space...
Studying the Martian subsurface water-equivalent hydrogen (WEH) content is crucial for understanding the environmental conditions that prevailed on early Mars, addressing the question of whether life ever existed or still exists, and identifying potentially habitable environments for future colonization. The standard method for determining the water content involves measurements of neutron...
We present an analysis of the strongest geomagnetic storm of Solar Cycle 25 (SYM-H < −518 nT), known as the Mother’s Day Storm, which occurred between 10 and 15 May 2024.
The study is based on data from a stand-alone system for measuring geomagnetic field variations at Talos Dome (TLD), a remote site on the Antarctic plateau, about 300 km from TNB,the Italian geomagnetic observatory at Mario...
The 10 May 2024 geomagnetic storm, called the Gannon Storm, is known to be the biggest geomagnetic storm in 20 years, reaching G5 (extreme) on NOAA space weather scales and causing auroras visible from Southern Europe. The ionospheric irregularities created by such a storm can impact radio-based technologies, such as the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), by delaying, scattering and...
During the first G3 storm of Solar Cycle 25, the passage of a solar filament on 12 May 2021 produced a strong geomagnetic storm and a rich response in Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-telluric-technology system. We use data from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) to investigate the effects of the event on the power grid along the US East Coast and compare the timing and...
I have been the Swedish Armed Forces space weather point of contact between 2007 and 2023, now stepping back for my successor to step in. During those years I have held short lectures about space weather and its roll for the armed forces, both to senior officers, new young officers and troops going for missions in Afghanistan, Greater Horn of Africa, Chad and Mali.
The association between solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) plays a critical role in understanding solar eruptive phenomena and their impact on space weather. This work presents a comprehensive statistical analysis of 49 solar radio bursts detected by the POEMAS (POlarization Emission of Millimeter Activity at the Sun) instrument, which operates at 45 and 90 GHz at the CASLEO...
Neutron Monitor (NM) measurements are an essential tool for both fundamental science and practical space weather applications. They provide long-term, continuous observations of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) at ground level and are ideally suited
for space weather monitoring by detecting sudden particle flux increases linked to strong solar eruptions. Their...
The aim of the ARCAFF (Active Region Classification and Flare Forecasting) project is to develop a beyond state-of-the-art flare forecasting system leveraging end-to-end deep learning models to significantly improve upon current flare forecasting capabilities. However, transitioning these models from research environments to robust, operational systems presents significant challenges,...
Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) are among the most hazardous forms of space weather impacts. Finnish Meteorological Institute has a long history of GIC measurements and real-time GIC modeling, with products also being delivered to the ESA Space Weather Service Network. Our latest research focuses on GIC estimation during the extreme Halloween geomagnetic storm, which caused the...
Ionospheric electron density and electron temperature affect the telecommunication and navigation/surveying systems such as the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). In this study, their inference is based on the Nearest Neighbor (NNB) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) regression models. Synthetic data sets are constructed using data from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI 2020)...
Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) represent a potential threat to power transmission systems during extreme space weather events. This study investigates a worst-case scenario for GICs in Sweden. We generate 1-in-100-year scenarios by scaling either ground magnetic field measurements or geoelectric fields from three historically observed geomagnetic storms. For the purpose of this...
We present an end-to-end, physics-based forward model for type-IV solar radio bursts that links coronal dynamics, particle transport, and radio emission in one pipeline. We first use the 3D coronal MHD model COCONUT to produce a realistic background and drive a CME as an unstable, modified Titov–Démoulin magnetic-flux-rope. We then inject energetic electrons and evolve their distributions with...
On October 3 2024, the Sun emitted the most powerful solar flare of the current solar cycle to date, reaching an X9 classification on the GOES scale. This exceptional event was accompanied by an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection, resulting in a strong geomagnetic storm on October 7–8. The flare itself was observed by multiple solar monitoring instruments, both ground-based and space-based....
Dual-frequency GNSS ground observations are commonly used to compute precise ionospheric total electron content (TEC) maps also known as Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs). Precise ionospheric maps are useful in mitigating atmospheric effects in GNSS navigation, positioning and timing (PNT) applications. The estimation of ionospheric TECs, and the satellite and receiver Differential Code Biases...
Unaccounted solar storms travelling towards Earth can disrupt orbiting satellites and ground-based infrastructure. These threats motivate the development of computational models of plasma activity from the Sun to Earth; such models often rely on empirical coronal inputs to predict events well in advance and mitigate their impact. In this work, we use COCONUT (COolfluid COronal uNstrUcTured),...
Between April and August 2024, the Solar Orbiter mission monitored a
significant portion of the Sun's far side, enabling near-continuous tracking of one of the most complex active regions ever recorded—from emergence to decay. We combined full-disk line-of-sight magnetograms from SO/PHI and SDO/HMI to construct a 94-day time series of deprojected maps of the line-of-sight magnetic field of...
The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) maintains one of the most significant repositories of environmental data in the world, and plays a crucial role in providing access to vital space weather data and products. NCEI empowers scientific discovery, enhances operational capabilities, and contributes to a more resilient society in the face of space weather challenges....
The L5 Project within the Space Weather Observations Program Division (SWOPD) between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Office of Space Weather Observations (SWO) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) will contribute the Compact Coronagraph 3 (CCOR-3), built by the U.S....
Abstract
Magnetosphere Plasma dynamics(MPD), encompassing plasma flows guided by magnetic fields must address how magnetically confined plasma detaches from magnetic structures where there is a significant research gap in accurate simulation techniques to simulate such environments accurately. This paper compares magnetohydrodynamic(MHD) models and computationally heavy particle in cell(PIC)...
The structure and dynamics of the solar atmosphere are a manifestation of the magnetic field, and it is from this field that all phenomena observed in this region are guided. Although its direct measurement in the solar corona faces limitations, its configuration can be calculated from data from the photosphere. This study proposes the use of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) to model...
The Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M SWAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center conducts real-time human-in-the-loop space weather analysis to support NASA missions throughout the solar system. With a strong emphasis on space weather impacts spanning 360 degrees, utilizing multi-viewpoint spacecraft is imperative to ensure complete and accurate analysis. Solar Orbiter’s (SolO)...
RHybrid (paRallel Hybrid) is a highly parallel hybrid space plasma simulation platform based on the macroscopic particle cloud-in-cell (CIC) technique for kinetic ions and the staggered Cartesian mesh grid method for electric and magnetic fields and charge-neutralizing fluid electrons. RHybrid has been used extensively for interpretation of spacecraft observations from plasma environments of...
Based on measurements of magnetospheric electron fluxes with energies >2 MeV in geostationary orbits, solar wind (SW) velocity, and geomagnetic activity for the period 1995-2023, a catalog of electron flux has been compiled. For the events of this catalog, interplanetary disturbances have been determined, after which high-energy electron fluxes (HEEF) begin to increase, and their solar sources...
Magnetospheric jets are regions of enhanced dynamic pressure in the magnetosheath. They are usually associated to the region behind a quasi-parallel shock and have been well documented at Earth.
However in recent years there have been efforts to identify these structures in other magnetosheaths as well. For example, recently it has been shown that they exist in the Martian magnetosheath. As...
Many operational space weather forecasting frameworks are based on the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model of the magnetic field. The output of PFSS serves as input in many heliospheric models that provide solar wind velocity predictions at L1. Previous studies in the context of prediction of open magnetic flux observed at L1 have suggested different source surface heights ($R_{ss}$)...
The solar radio flux index F10.7 denotes the spectral flux density of solar radiation at a wavelength of 10.7 cm or 2.8 GHz and is the most important parameter for solar activity alongside the sunspot number. F10.7 is also a central input parameter for models of the ionosphere and thermosphere and is therefore relevant for radio communication, navigation and all applications relying on LEO...
To maximise the efficiency of space weather mitigation strategies, forecasting products must not only be accurate and timely but tailored to end-user needs. For understanding and predicting the behaviour of the near-Earth space environment in changing solar wind conditions, physics-based modelling is extremely powerful, though often comes at considerable computational expense, making it...
Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs), with energies from tens of keV to a few GeV, are a significant component of the space environment. They threaten satellite electronics and pose a major radiation hazard to astronauts, and in extreme conditions, they also endanger avionics and commercial aircraft. Therefore, accurate and timely prediction of SEP events is essential for human spaceflight beyond...
The ESA Vigil mission will monitor the Sun and ejected solar plasma in real time from Lagrange point L5. From this unique vantage point, Vigil will provide early detection of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and Co-rotating Interaction Regions (CIRs), enhancing our ability to anticipate space weather threats. In this contribution, we will present two machine learning models that employ...
COSMICA is an open-source, high-performance numerical code that leverages GPU acceleration for modeling the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR). It has been developed within the framework of the ICSC - Italian Research Center on High Performance Computing, Big Data, and Quantum Computing (Spoke-3). The software is continuously optimized to enhance its computational efficiency on...
Polar cap is the source region of the space weather disturbances, which expand to mid and low latitudes. Large southward IMF Bz leads to strong cross polar cap potential generating intense Joule heating from ion neutral collisions. To understand how much Joule heating is generated, one must know the thermospheric winds. Over the years, NCAR has been operating ground based Fabry Perot...
The effects of space weather events and galactic cosmic-rays (GCRs) are involved in many atmospheric processes, and as such, there is a desire to understand and characterise the airspace radiation environment. Typically, instrumentation onboard satellites, and ground-based instrumentation, are used for primary and secondary particle detection, respectively. Such instrumentation are...
The timely and accurate prediction of Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) parameters and arrival times is a cornerstone of operational space weather forecasting. Current limitations in stereoscopic coverage hinder our ability to determine CME kinematics and geometry with confidence. To address this, our research has developed a machine learning framework trained entirely on synthetic coronagraph image...
This study traces the journey from solar flare initiation to auroral impacts on Earth. I began by analyzing magnetic reconnection in active regions using SDO/HMI and SDO/AIA data (Kazachenko et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-022-01987-6) . I then fed flare and CME parameters into ENLIL heliospheric models to forecast shock arrival. These forecasts were validated against solar-wind...
We present a 4-pi solar flare forecasting system developed under the NASA "Research-2-Operations" program. We incorporate far-side helioseismic results (mapping the solar seismic signals to magnetic flux concentrations and their characteristics) as input to surface flux transport maps to model the evolution of magnetic concentrations such as Active Regions in areas where data are not...
We at NICT currently forecast the maximum expected magnitude of solar flares for the next 24 hours. However, providing early warnings for major solar flares remains a significant challenge. To address this limitation, we are developing an alert system capable of predicting and issuing warnings for large flares at least several hours before their onset.
We recently implemented a...
One of the most promising approaches to predict the Kp index is to consider this index as a nonlinear dynamic system driven by input parameters from the solar wind. This system theory allows to develop the physically interpretable models to make a good-quality predictions.
It is proposed to use a NARX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs) model, which is a simplified form of the...
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are key drivers of space weather disturbances. Therefore, it is necessary to have accurate prediction models for both their scientific understanding and operational forecasting. The Probabilistic Drag-Based Model (P-DBM) is a Monte Carlo-based framework to simulate the heliospheric propagation of CMEs, yielding probabilistic predictions of CME arrival times,...
The solar wind, a stream of charged particles originating from the Sun, poses significant risks to technology and astronauts. It is driven by large structures on the solar surface like coronal holes and active regions, which can be identified in extreme ultra-violet (EUV) solar images several days before they become geoeffective. In this work, we propose to use a distributional regression...
High radio frequencies observations with the Italian network of large single-dish radio telescopes resulted in over 500 solar images between 2018 and 2025 in K-band frequency range (18–26 GHz). Solar radio mapping at these frequencies allows the probing of the Active Regions (ARs) chromospheric magnetic field close to the Transition Region, where strong flares and coronal mass ejection events...
We propose the use of Jupiter’s sporadic decametric (DAM) emission as a natural radio beacon tool for advancing space weather diagnostics across planetary environments. Owing to its strong intensity and broad frequency coverage, Jovian DAM signals are highly sensitive to plasma conditions encountered along its propagation path, from Jupiter’s magnetosphere, through the interplanetary medium,...
In this presentation I will review the current progress and challenges for improving forecasts of the geomagnetic effects of solar coronal mass ejections (CME), and will present a future roadmap, including metrics and validation efforts. This should not only include the solar wind drivers but also the magnetospheric response, which is facilitated through the combined expertise of a recently...
Accurate estimation of thermospheric neutral density is vital for atmospheric drag compensation. Actual measurements of thermospheric neutral density are rare, and often limited to specific altitude ranges. Numerical models are often used as a substitute, sometimes in conjunction with data assimilation schemes. During geomagnetic storms, having an accurate representation of the...
Coronal jets are known to be transient phenomena associated with energy release processes, with magnetic reconnection being their most probable origin. However, the precise timing and location of the reconnection events have not been clearly established. Moreover, the pronounced geometric complexity of coronal hole (CH) boundaries — where these jets typically originate — suggests a dynamic...
Accurate forecasting of solar wind is essential for space weather predictions, but uncertainties persist due to incomplete solar magnetic field observations of the Sun. Disentangling the impact of these limitations on solar wind predictions remains challenging. This research explores the sources of uncertainty in solar wind models caused by the lack of comprehensive full-Sun magnetic field...
In the present study, we analyzed the Earth's magnetospheric dynamics in response to the intense geomagnetic storm of 19th December 2015, marked by a substantial decrease in the SYM-H index to -188 nT. We focushere on the variations of the magnetic flux content (MFC) within closed magnetic shells in the inner magnetosphe up to a distance roughly corresponding to the magnetopause. During this...
The poster shows effects and threats to aviation industry posed by space weather and ways forward to deal with those challenges.
We, the authors, are:
- airline captains
- end users for space wx forecasts
- volunteers, working for years for the radiation protection workgroup of the pilots association of germany (Vereinigung Cockpit) and therefore experts in this field
- fine with being...
In 2024, major solar flares occurred in May and October, disrupting the radiation environment near Earth. This report presents the results of analyses of space radiation data and its effects in low Earth orbit and geostationary orbit obtained in 2024. GOSAT is equipped with a light particle telescope (LPT) for the purpose of high-energy charged particle environments that can cause spacecraft...
Even for identical radiation monitors deployed in space on miscellaneous satellites and operated by diverse providers, their data often reside in separate locations, with fragmented, mission specific formats. They are often distinct from the original, instrument related data acquisition protocols. Therefore, getting access to them generally requires unique specialized software. In addition,...
Observations at radio and millimeter wavelengths provide a unique window into the thermal and magnetic structure of the solar chromosphere and corona, where the solar drivers of space weather are rooted. The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) has marked a major advance in solar observations by providing unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. These capabilities enable...
The ionospheric D-region (60 - 90 km) is responsible for a large part of HF absorption (Zawdie, 2017). It is a variable region, responding to increases in the solar radiation. Real-time surveillance of the D-region is thus crucial to offer real-time alerts in case of solar flares and mitigate their impact on radio communications. However, continuous in situ monitoring of this region is...
Space weather poses a risks to power grids by inducing electric fields in the ground and currents in transmission lines. Monitoring these effects is therefore crucial for power grid operators, enabling them to diagnose problems and, when necessary, take measures to protect the grid. Previous work has modeled the induced ground electric field and currents through the Swedish power grid for...
Sunspot observations made by Rudolf Wolf (1816 - 1893) during the years from 1849 to 1893 form the core of the Wolf series of sunspot number index, the longest directly observed series of solar activity. Homogeneity is considered as the most important property of the Wolf series, since without a stable scale no valid conclusions about variations in the long term progress of solar activity can...
The International Sunspot Number (ISN) series, a cornerstone for space climate studies, still exhibits scale discrepancies despite recent recalibrations, underscoring the critical need for a comprehensive reconstruction from raw historical observations. The FARSuN (Findability and Accessibility of historical Raw Sunspot Numbers) project addresses this by systematically gathering, digitizing,...
Geomagnetic storms disturb the near-Earth space environment and induce geoelectric fields at ground level, posing risks to critical infrastructure. This study investigates the spatial and temporal structure of the geoelectric field (E-field) in south-southeast Brazil during the May 2024 geomagnetic storm, focusing on polarization effects and regional susceptibility to geomagnetically induced...
The Relativistic Electron and Proton Experiment (REPE) is an advanced, compact particle radiation detector designed for a variety of missions and space weather applications. It was originally developed by University of Turku (UTU) to study the Van Allen belts onboard the nanosatellite mission Foresail-2 and later transitioned into a collaboration with ASRO for future missions. At the moment,...
Angelo Secchi, a 19th-century Italian Jesuit and pioneering figure in astrophysics, carried out systematic solar observations for over 25 years at the Collegio Romano in Rome.
His original notebooks, documenting observations from 1853 to 1878, have recently been digitized, resulting in over 5,400 high-resolution images.
In this presentation, I will highlight the citizen science project,...
We examine the geoelectric field and geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) during the May 2024 superstorm using a novel method. The divergence-free part of the geoelectric field (EDF), associated with rapid magnetic field variations, is estimated from ground-based magnetic field observations using spherical elementary current systems. The curl-free part of the geoelectric field (ECF),...
The South African National Space Agency (SANSA) operates a 24/7 Regional Space Weather Centre that was established in November 2022. South Africa through SANSA has been designated by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) as a Regional Space Weather Centre in 2018. The role of a Regional Centre is to support the four ICAO Global Centres in the provision of space weather...
Increases in the flux of high energy electrons in the Earth's radiation belts cause satellite charging which can lead to an electrostatic discharge, anomalies and disruption to service. For geostationary orbit (GEO) there are guidelines on how much shielding to protect electronic components, but not for lower orbits. Here we use data from GPS satellite NS41, the AE9 radiation model, and LANL...
Modeling extreme storm response on the ground, for the purpose of preparing for a worst-case scenario, sometimes takes the form of scaling up observed ground response from historical storms. This approach assumes that a simple scaling of the ground response can capture the complexities and non-linearities inherent in the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. As part of the Solar Tsunamis...
The current state of the art in relativistic electron radiation belt models for operational needs come in two flavours – a “nowcast” based on data assimilation of relevant and timely measurements into a physics based model, and limited “forecasts'' based on statistical forecasts of indices or solar wind parameters that govern the dynamics in physical models. The FARBES (Forecast of Actionable...
The rapid growth of open science and data-driven research in heliophysics and space weather demands robust, accessible, and comprehensive digital infrastructures. The Science Explorer (SciX) digital library—developed through a collaboration between NASA and the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory—now serves as a transformative platform for interdisciplinary research across astrophysics,...
The Sun cubE onE (SEE) is a 12U CubeSat mission in LEO that will investigate Gamma and X-ray fluxes and UV solar emission to support studies in Sun-Earth interaction and Space Weather. The mission is developed in the frame of the ALCOR program of the Italian Space Agency by a team composed of Tor Vergata University of Rome, Argotec, INFN, School of Aerospace Engineering, OPTEC, and...
Solar energetic particles (SEPs) accelerated in coronal mass ejection (CME) driven shocks are key contributors to space weather hazards. However, their acceleration and escape mechanisms remain incompletely understood, particularly under realistic coronal conditions. We present a one-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation framework for modeling SEP acceleration using diffusive shock acceleration...
Sub-ionospheric Very Low Frequency (VLF) signal propagation serves as a powerful diagnostic tool for probing the lower ionosphere, particularly the D-region, during various space weather phenomena. In this study, we present an unified, autonomous modeling framework to investigate VLF signal perturbations induced by two distinct solar events: the 2024 Total Solar Eclipse (TSE-2024) and selected...
Direct sunspot observations cover about four centuries or about 36 solar cycles, with one-third of them being poorly defined because of the lower quality of observations before 1750. An indirect proxy of solar activity, the abundance of cosmogenic isotopes measured in independently dateable natural archives, such as 14C in tree rings, is the only quantitative method to reconstruct solar...
Sudden Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can have a major impact on technology and humans in space. Therefore forecasts and early warning systems working to support those missions are desirable. One example is the REleASE system (A. Posner, 2007), which utilizes the close correlation of near relativistic electrons and the slower but more hazardous protons. The early arrival of the...
Solar filaments, phenomena in the solar corona, are of significant scientific interest due to their link with violent eruptive events such as coronal mass ejections. This study introduces a comprehensive deep learning framework for the detection, classification, segmentation, and tracking of solar filaments using H$\alpha$ images from the Global Oscillation Network Group data archive. Using...
Solar flares are powerful, sudden bursts of energy from the Sun than can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere, affecting communication systems. Precisely predicting the duration of the solar flares is important for reducing their impacts on high-frequency radio communications.
This research focuses on developing a Python based analytical tool to estimate solar flare duration using data from the...
Solar flares rapidly and energetically discharge magnetic energy in the solar atmosphere, accelerating charged particles to high velocities and generating intense bursts of radiation across the whole electromagnetic spectrum. Observing flares with high-resolution spectropolarimetric imaging from ground-based instruments remains challenging due to factors such as unpredictability of flares in...
Direct measurements of solar irradiance have only been available since the late 1970s, making models essential for reconstructing earlier values.
Variations in solar irradiance on timescales longer than a day are primarily driven by changes in the Sun's surface magnetic field, which manifests as bright faculae and network features or dark sunspots.
Accurate irradiance modeling therefore...
Solar Orbiter is an ESA-led science mission that since its launch in 2020 explores the Sun and the heliosphere from an unique, elliptical orbit around our home star.
While the mission goals are science driven, it has been providing very valuable data for space weather purposes, due to its interesting configurations with Earth and Sun, and its data are currently used actively in Space Weather...
The Solar Orbiter spacecraft carries a priviledged pauload composed of both Remote Sensing and In Situ instruments. Its orbit is as close to the Sun as 0.3 AU and it will incline the plane of its orbit up to around 30 degrees in the next years.
Due to its orbit trajectory around the Sun, there are periods of high latency when no science data is readily available. However, the mission has been...
During the extreme solar storm of May 2024, the orbital configuration of solar observing missions offered a rare opportunity to track the full life cycle of the active region where the responsible eruptions originated. Particularly, Solar Orbiter was located near the far side of the Sun—approximately 170 degrees from Earth—allowing continuous monitoring of the source active region before,...
We will present the Solar Predict tool that uses the Silso SSN time series and the Blos magnetic field observations to forecast the solar 11yr cycle activity. The tool and performance are presented in a recent paper Jouve et al 2025, A&A, in press.
Solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-ray photons are a primary source of energy for the upper atmospheres of terrestrial planets. Soft X-ray (SXR, 0-10 nm) irradiance is quite variable, particularly during solar flare events, and is difficult to extrapolate to other planets based on Earth observations alone. Meanwhile, photoelectrons are a product of solar EUV and SXR irradiance photoionizing...
The solar wind (SW), as a primary space weather driver, exhibits significant temporal and spatial variations in the properties of heliospheric plasma. The mass, energy, and flux transfer from the SW to Earth's magnetosphere and upper atmosphere occurs through strong coupling between the magnetosphere and ionosphere, primarily mediated by field-aligned current (FAC) systems. Earth’s coupled...
Understanding the origins of ultra-low frequency (ULF) geomagnetic pulsations is central to space weather research due to their critical role in magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling and radiation belt dynamics. We present a comprehensive multi-spacecraft study using ARTEMIS, Cluster, GOES, and THEMIS data to investigate how step-like and quasi-periodic variations in solar wind dynamic pressure...
The South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA) represents a unique low-intensity region of the geomagnetic field, where the inner radiation belt approaches the upper atmosphere, enhancing particle precipitation and ionospheric conductivity. In this work, we investigate how SAMA modulates the ground magnetic response during Sudden Commencements (SCs) and associated Pc5 pulsations. Using data from a...
The Swedish Institute of Space Physics (IRF) is a leading space research institute, recognised both in Europe and globally. IRF conducts research in space and atmospheric physics and the advancement of space technology. Understanding fundamental processes is crucial for comprehending space weather, which is increasingly vital for maintaining a functional society.
IRF's research is organised...
The Moon during most part of its orbit around the Earth is directly exposed to the solar wind. Due to the absence of a substantial intrinsic magnetic field and of a collisional atmosphere, solar wind and solar energetic particles (SEPs) arrive almost without any deviation or absorption and impact directly on its surface, interacting with the lunar regolith and the tenuous lunar exosphere. The...
The Planeterrella experiment is a modernized version of the clasical Terrella experiment, used to visualize and demonstrate the formation of polar auroras and related phenomena. Since its initial development by Jean Lilensten, the Planeterrella has been adopted as a valuable tool in the popularization of space science to the general public. In particular, a version of the experiment has been...
The Space Weather Follow-On (SWFO) program will provide operational solar-coronal images and in situ solar wind measurements to the science community and to space weather information users. Here we first give status updates on the Compact Coronagraph 1 (CCOR-1) onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 19 (GOES-19) since its June 25, 2024 launch. The Post-Launch Test (PLT)...
One of the key aspects of the mission of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), to facilitate worldwide cooperation on monitoring and predicting changes in weather, climate, water and other environmental conditions, is to promote globally coordinated observations and enable global exchange of observation data.
The WMO framework for these activities is called the WMO Integrated Global...
Extreme space weather poses a critical risk to infrastructure worldwide. The Space Weather Investigation Frontier (SWIFT; Akhavan-Tafti et al., 2023) space mission concept aims to deliver space weather warnings that are up to 40% (20 minutes) earlier and 2.5 times more accurate than existing assets. SWIFT utilizes a flight-ready solar sail to fly a constellation of satellites at a unique...
This thesis explores how space weather affects the orbits of Earth satellites. In particular, how changes in geomagnetic activity disturb satellite paths in any possible way, including atmospheric density, and solar radiation, but also Lorentz force perturbation. The study compares satellites at very different orbital heights: CHAMP in low-Earth orbit, MetOp-A in mid-Earth orbit, the geodetic...
SPACE IT UP is a program aiming at enhancing the space technology of Italy to be used for space exploration and exploitation for the benefit of planet Earth and the entire humankind. SPACE IT UP has a relevant interdisciplinarity approach, involving different disciplines in renowned Italian Universities, Research centers, Industries and SME’s. The holistic and problem-solving approach...
Highly energetic electrons (at the MeV level) in the vicinity of the Earth’s radiation belts pose significant risks on satellites through single event effects and long-term radiation damage, in GEO, MEO, and LEO orbits. Accurate forecasting of electron fluxes in this environment is essential for risk mitigation and spacecraft operations. Over the past few decades, several physics-based models...
The Horizon Europe SPEARHEAD (SPEcification, Analysis & Re-calibration of High Energy pArticle Data) project provides a suite of open-access tools to enhance the analysis of high-energy particle observations that are critical for heliophysics research. The toolkit includes:
- Bowtie – executes bow-tie analysis on instrument energy channels to calculate geometric factors and effective...
The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) has assigned four dedicated global space weather centers that distribute advisories about the space weather conditions that may affect civil aviation. PECASUS, the Partnership of Excellence for Civil Aviation Space weather User Services, is one of these centres and consists of members from Finland, Belgium, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy,...
In this paper we have presented a statistical analysis of coronal mass ejections (CME) for the semi solar cycle 25 (year 2020 to year 2025). We used SOHO/LASCO catalogue for finding key parameters such as frequency of occurrence, speed, angular width, halo CMEs and correlated with solar activity indices such as sunspot numbers and solar cycle phase. We found that the narrow events were majorly...
The ionospheric F2 layer plays a crucial role in radio wave propagation and is significantly influenced by various factors. Understanding its long-term variations is essential for analyzing Solar-Terrestrial dynamics and improving ionospheric models. This study uses the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) and the height of the peak electron density (hmF2) from 1964 to 2019. Both...
After almost six years of Space Weather operational service for the International Civil Aviation Organization, we present a status of the ionospheric scintillation observations based on ground-based GNSS data collected at CLS for the ACFJ global center. Ionospheric scintillation may cause severe impact for many end-users, especially for the aviation industry. Therefore, we focus on regions...
Yana Maneva is a space weather forecaster and service developer at the Royal Observatory of Belgium and the Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE). Her work is focused on support of space weather service provision to the aviation community, particularly within the framework of PECASUS consortium, which is one of the four global centres providing space weather services to the...
This work reports on the real-time implementation of a local solar proton event forecasting system at the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory - Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft, namely STEREO REleASE+. The forecasting uses the finding that relativistic electrons provide the “earliest indication” that a solar particle event has started, arriving at near-Earth distance earlier than protons at...
The partial solar eclipse on 29th March 2025 had become an opportunity to conduct radio observations from a stratospheric balloon platform, simultaneously and as an aid to the ground-based observations by the LOFAR radiotelescope station in Borówiec near Poznań. The stratospheric flight conditions were chosen as a mean to mitigate the influence of the man-made radio noise; the experiments’...
The Home-grown Radiation Monitor (YRM) is being developed for deployment on Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite missions. YRM will consist of a proton telescope, sensitive to protons with kinetic energies between 2–200 MeV, and an electron detector, sensitive to electrons with kinetic energies between 0.5–7 MeV.
The proton telescope design has been completed, and an initial prototype was flown...
This research aims to explore the connection between the global configuration of the solar magnetic field and the geoeffectiveness of Earth-impacting coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The heliospheric plasma sheet (HPS), which is related to the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), is a large-scale magnetic structure characterized by weak magnetic field intensity, but relatively high mass density and...
The present work aims to analytically determine the dispersion relations of the primary fundamental modes of wave propagation in cold plasmas. Additionally, it seeks to obtain normalized graphical representations of these equations for comparison with established literature. The methodology employed is based on theoretical analysis, focusing on the linearization of Maxwell's equations in a...
This study focuses on the mid- and low-midlatitude ionospheric response to the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, utilizing ground-based and Swarm satellite observations. The ground-based ionosonde measured F1, F2-layer, B0 and B1 parameters, as well as isodensity data, were used. The ionospheric absorption was investigated with the so-called amplitude method, which is based on ionosonde data....
Auroral Kilometric Radiation (AKR) is a strong Earth-based radio emission generated by the acceleration of electrons along auroral latitude magnetic field lines. AKR is closely linked to auroral ionospheric activity, with greater irradiance correlating with stronger auroral electrojets and enhanced particle precipitation. AKR provides a means to remotely sense ionosphere-magnetosphere...
We present SunSCC, a fully automated system to detect, aggregate, and classify sunspot groups according to the McIntosh scheme using ground-based white light (WL) observations from the USET facility located at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. The sunspot detection uses a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), trained from segmentation maps obtained with an unsupervised method based on...
The ionosphere is a complex plasma medium characterised by electron density fluctuations spanning a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Its dynamics are determined by complex interactions with the magnetosphere, solar wind, and thermosphere, forming a tightly coupled system. These external and internal factors cause variability that is often nonlinear and anisotropic, making it...
The ionosphere is a highly complex plasma containing electron density structures with a wide range of spatial scale sizes. The ionosphere is coupled to the Earth’s magnetosphere and the solar wind, as well as to the neutral atmosphere. Variability within the ionosphere is highly dependent on the driving processes. Thus, modelling the ionosphere and capturing its full dynamic range considering...
This fall marked the start of the ESA S2P-S1-SW-21 SWIGPOD project which is devoted to extensively upgrade the GNSS Performance Indicators also taking advantage of the newly introduced ESA SWESNET products.
Space Weather has significant impact on wide range of GNSS-based modern technologies and also critical infrastructures, which is reported mostly during Solar Maxima and accordingly many...
The 3D Energetic Electron Spectrometer (3DEES) has been designed as a compact science-class instrument that is optimized for the measurement of angle-resolved electron spectra in the energy range 0.1 - 10 MeV in the Earth’s radiation belts. It also allows to quantify proton fluxes in the energy range 2.5 to 50 MeV.
On 5th December 2024, a demonstrator model of the instrument (measuring...
The forecast of space weather impacts related to CMEs which interact with high-speed stream is very challenging. ICMEs are known to be among the most important origins of geomagnetic storms because they usually carry out-of-the-ecliptic strong magnetic fields and are often associated with interplanetary shocks. The internal ICME structure is characterized as a magnetic flux rope, which may...
Space It Up! (SIU) is a major research and innovation program funded by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) and the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. It brings together a consortium of 33 Italian entities from both the research and industry operating in the space sector. SIU aims at fostering innovation and technological development in space exploration. The project is structured into thematic...
In our paper, we describe the content of the platform for the educational courses in geomagnetism was done in HTML (Hypertext Markup Language), CSS (Cascading Style Sheets) and JavaScript. HTML tells the browser what elements should be included in the web page (and in what order). CSS tells the browser how each element should be styled. JavaScript provides a means for web page authors to...
Events with extreme magnitudes of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in the power transmission lines on the Kola Peninsula for the quasi-solar cycle 2012-2022 are analyzed. GIC recordings from Vykhodnoy (VKH) and Kondopoga (KND) sub-stations together with data from near-by magnetometers have been examined. Extreme bursts of GIС are mainly observed in the pre-midnight and post-midnight...
The Astro-rivelatore Gamma a Immagini LEggero (AGILE) has been a unique and successful space mission of the Italian Space Agency (ASI), with the programmatic and technical contribution of INAF and INFN. During almost 17 years of observations, since the launch on April 23, 2007 to the satellite re-entry on February 14, 2024, AGILE contributed to high-energy astrophysics, terrestrial and solar...
The first DTM_nrt (near real time), developed in 2013, used exospheric temperature corrections inferred from observed densities essentially for debiasing. We have started the development of an updated DTM_nrt, which uses the more precise DTM2020 as background model, and more precise density data (CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE, Swarm-A, and GRACE-FO) calculated by TU Delft, as well as updated Stella...
We investigate how CME-driven shock fronts become quasi-global and enable widespread solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Using EUHFORIA with a GONG–ADAPT coronal background, we simulate the 13 March 2023 eruption by inserting two spheromak CMEs and, crucially, injecting a shock directly at 0.1 au via Rankine–Hugoniot conditions. This design lets the shock evolve without being tethered to...
Space Weather (SWE) has a profound impact on Earth’s atmospheric chemistry and climate. Compared to the present-day Sun, the young Sun was more magnetically active and experienced more frequent extreme space weather events, such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs), which steadily bombarded Earth’s upper atmosphere. These particles enhanced atmospheric...
High-speed streams (HSSs) and interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are two primary solar wind structures responsible for driving geomagnetic storms. These structures originate from distinct solar sources and differ in terms of plasma composition and dynamics. One important consequence of their interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere is the generation of plasma waves, including...
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Volcano, located in the Pacific Islands, erupted on 15 January 2022. The eruption triggered both a tsunami and a meteotsunami, impacting areas around the Pacific Ocean. Lamb waves from the eruption, travelling at a speed of approximately 310 m/s, reached eastern Indonesia (~5000 km from Tonga) within 4 hours and arrived in Malaysia (Borneo region) about 6 hours...
This study investigates the variability in the occurrence of Atlantic Hurricanes (AHU) over the Atlantic and East Caribbean regions and Tropical Cyclones (TC) over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea during the period 1979–2018. A comprehensive statistical analysis, including correlation and regression methods, is employed to explore the relationship between solar activity and cyclone...
The International Radiation Environment Near Earth Model (IRENE), formerly AE9/AP9/SPM, has provided the global satellite design community with enhanced specification capabilities over legacy models since 2012. Based on feedback from the community we have continued to improve and expand capabilities of the model suite. We have recently released updates to version 1.5 providing more features...
The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) on the Mars Rover Curiosity has been effectively serving as a space weather monitor on the surface of Mars since Curiosity landed on the red planet in 2012. RAD has measured the impact of more than a dozen solar storms, with the frequency of events increasing as the Sun approaches solar maximum. Two relatively large events (Sept. 10, 2017 and Oct. 28,...
Space Weather has traditionally explored the Sun’s immediate influence on the Earth system and its technology, including direct impact to humans. With the future of increased human and robotic missions to Mars, it is important to fill critical gaps and establish robust capabilities for predicting, monitoring, and mitigating space weather effects beyond Earth. The Mars Space Weather...
The geomagnetic storm of May 2024 was the most intense event observed since the major storm of November 2003, reaching a minimum Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index of –412 nT. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the ionospheric response, with particular attention to variations in the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2). The analysis draws on validated measurements from 34...
The Metis coronagraph aboard Solar Orbiter has been providing since its launch in 2020 unique data consisting of simultaneous observations of the solar corona in the visible-light band and in a UV narrow band centered on the H I Ly-alpha line.
We describe the various approaches employed to maximize the science return of Metis data. We discuss in particular the baseline science operations and...
This study focuses on the Mother’s Day (or Gannon) geomagnetic storm of May 2024, which became the most intense space weather event of solar cycle 25. It reached a peak Kp value of 9 and was classified as a G5-level geomagnetic storm, marking it as one of the most extreme storms since 2003. During this period, multiple solar flares associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 75 (NOAA Active Region...
Our increasing reliance on technology vulnerable to space weather effects underscores the urgent need for effective public communication about these phenomena. While scientific research thrives on precise technical language, broader public engagement necessitates a more accessible and memorable approach. This commentary advocates for developing and implementing a standardized nomenclature for...
In the frame of the ESA Space Safety Programme’s Space Weather Service Network (S2P), the Radiation Belt Forecast And Nowcast framework 2 (RB-FAN 2) is currently developed to nowcast and forecast the particle populations and their dynamics within the radiation belts. This new version (see RB-FAN from ESA Space Situational Awareness Program) aims at providing new risk orbit, to improve the...
The origin and formation of the solar wind remain an open question in solar physics. One proposed scenario is that some solar wind may arise from coronal hole boundaries via magnetic reconnection, the process that also dominates the evolution of coronal hole boundaries. In this study, we investigate the magnetic field and plasma properties at different parts of the boundary of a large...
The ionosphere, extending from approximately 60 to 1000 km altitude, is a dynamic plasma environment critical for radio wave propagation and the performance of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Its variability is strongly influenced by solar activity, notably during coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and intense solar flares, which inject energetic particles and disturbances into the...
The Solar Orbiter Python Working Group, part of the Modelling and Data Analysis Working Group (MADAWG) initiative, specifically supports multi-instrument research using Solar Orbiter observations. Its goal is to address the growing need for coordinated and interoperable Python tools that enables joint analysis across instruments and facilitate connections with broader space weather research. ...
JEDI (Joint EUV Coronal Diagnostic Investigation) is an instrument selected by NASA under the Heliophysics Living With a Star program to fly on the European Space Agency’s Vigil Mission. From Vigil’s orbit around L5 JEDI will take high cadence, multi-thermal, Extreme ultraviolet images of the solar disk through the middle corona, providing crucial coverage and insight into Earth-directed space...
JUICE was launched in April 2023, and it is now in its cruise phase to Jupiter, where it will arrive in July 2031. JUICE carries a RADiation hard Electron Monitor (RADEM) to measure protons, electrons, and ions, detecting particles coming from the anti-Sun direction. On 2024 May 13, a large solar energetic particle (SEP) event took place in association with an eruption close to the western...
Tremendous progress have been made in computing realistic global simulation of the solar magnetism and its 11 yr cycle. Yet there is still one paradox: none of the published dynamo simulations display sunspots. This is the so-called spotty-dynamo paradox. In this talk we will discuss what we think is missing in current global HPC simulation of the solar dynamo and 11 yr cycle and how new high...
Developed in the framework of the H2020 SOLARNET project and now part of the EU OSCARS Federation of Solar Data project, the Solar Virtual Observatory (SVO) aims at making solar data more findable and accessible to the solar physics community. The SVO allows searching across multiple datasets as well as across the Heliophysics Event Database (HEK) and lets you search for data that overlaps...
With research showing that solar storms can have devastating consequences for today's technical infrastructure and due to increased observed effects in various domains including air traffic and critical infrastructure, the importance of space weather is rising.
To investigate on this topic in Austria, the Space Weather Austrian Platform (SWAP) project was founded, forming a national...
One of the most significant hurdles for safe human exploration to Mars is the exposure to radiation from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and transient space weather events during transit and on the planet. Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which are notoriously hard to predict. High doses of radiation may be delivered on time scales...
The Vigil space weather mission is currently being developed for launch to the Sun-Earth L5 Lagrange point. From this location it will provide low-latency remote and in situ measurements of the Sun and solar wind for operational space weather services. As part of its payload, Vigil will carry a magnetometer to measure the interplanetary magnetic field in situ. A key goal of the Vigil project...
The ESA Vigil mission will be the first operational space weather monitoring mission deployed at the Sun–Earth Lagrange Point L5, offering a unique vantage point approximately 60 degrees behind Earth’s orbit. This position enables early detection and continuous tracking of solar activity that may impact Earth, providing critical lead time for forecasting and mitigation of space weather...
The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission was launched almost sixteen years ago as part of the Earth Explorers ESA missions. It generates full polarimetric brightness temperature images in the L-band at 1.4 GHz with an integration time of 1.2 s. As the Sun appears in most images as the strongest source of contamination, data are processed with a Sun removal algorithm. This signal can...
Accurate and timely estimates of CME direction, speed and size are essential for space weather forecasting; however, current methods based on coronagraph observations remain time-consuming and show significant variability between forecasters. To address this challenge, we propose an automated system capable of continuously producing a 3D reconstruction of CMEs and inferring their kinematics...
Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are affected by solar modulation while they propagate through the heliosphere. The time variation of GCR spectra is driven by different physical processes, such as advection, diffusion, particle drifts, and adiabatic energy losses, whose relative contribution changes during the solar cycle. Here we present preliminary efforts towards a physics-based long-term GCR...
Magnetohydrodynamic modelling of the evolution and dynamics of large-scale heliospheric disturbances is conventionally carried out employing either a coronal or heliospheric approach. In the former, the complex dynamics from the low corona to the heliosphere is modeled, while in the latter the simulation is started at heliocentric distances at which the solar wind is characterised by...
We aim to develop a more coherent understanding of the evolution of the physical properties of solar eruptions as they propagate through interplanetary space. Recent multi-spacecraft observations of single ICME events allow us to systematically trace magnetic field related properties across vast spatial domains. Among these properties, magnetic helicity appears to be especially interesting. As...
Comprehending the horizontal velocity field of the highly magnetized plasma within the solar atmosphere is essential to understanding the complicated dynamics and energy evolution of solar phenomena at various scales, from small-scale swirls to coronal mass ejections. Most traditional methods estimate the photospheric horizontal velocity field by tracking bright features. These reconstructed...
TROPOMAG is an institutional project of the Environment Department of the Italian “Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia”, and it aims at investigating the connection between Space Weather, Meteorological Weather and Climate with a multidisciplinary and multi-instrument approach. The potential connection between the Earth’s magnetic field and meteorology has been subject of debate for...
Graz University of Technology processes thermospheric neutral densities for several satellite missions, primarily using accelerometer measurements and GNSS observations (POD). Additionally, we recently began calculating long-term variations from SLR observations of passive satellites. Combining these techniques yields a dataset spanning approximately 25 years, which is ideal for studying the...
We present high-resolution observations of a Type II solar radio burst captured with the Small Phase Array Demonstrator (SPADE). The high frequency/time resolution observations reveal fine-scale spectral structures within the radio signatures of a shock wave, one of the very important space weather phenomenon. Built on software-defined radio technologies, SPADE is a compact eight-element...
In 1899, the Norwegian physicist Kristian Birkeland designed an experiment called Terrella, to show the formation of the polar lights. Electrons were shot on a magnetised sphere in a vacuum chamber. The electron gun represented the sun, and the magnetized sphere was naturally the Earth. This experience allowed him to see (without identifying them) also ring current later discovered by James...
The geomagnetic storm of 10 − 12 May 2024 was the first extreme storm of the solar cycle 25 and the largest storm in more than 20 years. During this super-intense geomagnetic disturbance, the auroral oval expanded to sub-auroral regions with lower geomagnetic latitudes than those of the observatories standardly used to calculate the indices AU, AL, and AE. The relationship between the main...
The analysis of low-latitude magnetograms, essential for space weather monitoring, is generally affected by the presence of noise. Our initial investigation focused on quantifying this impact by applying the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to data from South American geomagnetic stations. The results demonstrated that common noise features, such as Gaussian white noise, compromise the...
Reliable forecasts with sufficient advance warning of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are vital for swift mitigation of threats to modern technology, spacecraft, avionics and under extreme circumstances commercial aircraft, as well as for minimizing radiation hazards to astronauts especially on future Lunar or Mars missions.To this end, the HESPERIA Relativistic Electron Alert System for...
Geomagnetic storms pose substantial risks to modern technological infrastructure, making accurate forecasting critical for mitigating their impacts on essential systems. Traditionally, space weather research has emphasized forecasting global geomagnetic indices. While these global indices provide valuable insights, local geomagnetic indices remain relatively understudied, despite their crucial...
Solar soft x-ray irradiance has been historically difficult to measure and “accepted” irradiance levels have been revised at least twice since initial values were published by Hinteregger et al. [1981] using Atmospheric Explorer E (AE-E) data. The first major revision was proposed by Solomon et al. [2001], who using soft x-ray irradiance measurements from the Student Nitric Oxide Explorer...
The Solar-Terrestrial Center of Excellence (STCE) plays an essential role in the PECASUS consortium (Partnership of Excellence for Civil Aviation Space weather User Services) providing global space weather services to civil aviation since November 2019. A major task within STCE is to perform 24/7 monitoring of the space weather activity and to generate space weather advisories when specific...
Translating complex space weather phenomena into formats that are engaging and understandable for general audiences is an ongoing challenge in science communication. This project explores how authentic scientific data can be transformed into immersive educational experiences—focusing on the aurora and its connection to solar activity, the Earth’s magnetic field, and the ionosphere.
We...
The ionosphere exhibits complex, non-stationary behaviors driven by atmospheric, solar, and geomagnetic influences. To effectively analyze such variability, this study employs wavelet spectral analysis on high-resolution data obtained from the Tromsø Dynasonde. Continuous wavelet transforms (CWT) were applied to key ionospheric parameters, including vertical plasma drift velocities and...
Context: On 26 September 2022, a quiescent solar prominence was observed using Hα imaging spectroscopy with the Solar Dynamics
Doppler Imager on the Solar Magnetic Activity Research Telescope. Prior studies identified 4- and 15-min oscillations using a narrow
slit and 1D wavelet methods, limiting spatial coverage. We extend this analysis to the entire prominence using a 3D wavelet...
With the recent lay-offs at NOAA, we have to start talking openly about Europe's position when it comes to space weather infrastructure and about the possible consequences of the recent geopolitical shifts. We have been reliant on the US space weather infrastructure for very long and in many instances, do not have alternatives, even when it comes to basic services used for protection of...
Accurate modeling of the ambient solar wind, particularly high-speed streams (HSSs), is crucial as they drive geomagnetic activity and influence the propagation of coronal mass ejections through the heliosphere. Previous solar wind (SW) validation studies have reported discrepancies between modeled and observed SW conditions at L1, indicating that a major source of discrepancies arises from...
Using synoptic maps, we analyzed the relationship between active longitudes, the most populated longitudes of energetic flares, the distribution of magnetically complex active regions, and the preferred locations of those that produced the largest flares. We found that solar activity was stronger in the northern hemisphere during the rising phases of both cycles, shifting to the southern...
We investigate the long-term variability of Jupiter’s 3-micron methane and ethane polar emissions in relation to solar wind fluxes. Our analysis is based on 3-micron emission measurements obtained with the Gemini infrared spectrograph in 2013, 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022, along with solar wind fluxes propagated to Jupiter’s orbit for the same years. The goal is to examine whether yearly changes...
‘Aurora and Spotty’ is a story written to communicate Space Weather to children. This presentation describes an initiative visiting schools and telling the story to children from 4 to 7 years old. The school activity starts before the visit, with the children drawing a picture of the Sun. Then, after the visit, the children draw a second picture of the Sun. Comparison between these two...
