Speaker
Description
Solicited talk originating from parallel session OPS.
A geomagnetic storm of similar intensity to the historic Carrington event of 1859 would present a serious risk to ground-based technological systems, particularly high-voltage power transmission networks. In a previous study, Blake et al. (2021, Space Weather, doi:10.1029/2020SW002585) reconstructed the magnetic field variations observed at Colaba, India, during the Carrington storm, and provided global estimates of external magnetic field variations at the surface of the Earth.
Building on these results, we apply a first-principles modelling method to calculate the geoelectric field induced in the Fennoscandian region. This method incorporates a high-resolution, three-dimensional model of the Earth's subsurface electrical conductivity to simulate how the ground responds to geomagnetic disturbances.
To evaluate the severity of a potential Carrington-class storm, we compare these estimates to modelled geoelectric fields from the October 2003 geomagnetic storm (commonly known as the Halloween storm) - one of the most powerful space weather events of the last 100 years. The Halloween storm provides an ideal reference due to the availability of dense, high-quality magnetometer observations across Fennoscandia.
Our results show that the peak geoelectric fields induced by a Carrington-level storm in Fennoscandia could be approximately four to ten times greater than those induced during the Halloween event. These findings highlight the significant geoelectric hazard posed by extreme geomagnetic activity, emphasizing the vulnerability of high-latitude regions with critical infrastructure.
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