Speaker
Description
Reliable forecasts with sufficient advance warning of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are vital for swift mitigation of threats to modern technology, spacecraft, avionics and under extreme circumstances commercial aircraft, as well as for minimizing radiation hazards to astronauts especially on future Lunar or Mars missions.To this end, the HESPERIA Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE) forecasting tools provide real-time predictions of the proton flux (30-50 MeV) at L1 based on relativistic and near-relativistic electron measurements by the SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM experiments. The recently developed STEREO REleASE forecasting scheme provides real-time predictions of proton flux (21-40 MeV) at the current location of STEREO-A, relying on electron measurements by the SEPT and the HET instruments. We report on two novel implementations, namely HESPERIA
REleASE+ and STEREO REleASE+, that combine for the first time real-time Type III solar radio burst observations by the STEREO S/WAVES instrument, as clear evidence of particle escape from the Sun, aiming to substantially improve the accuracy and reduce false alarms. The identification of Type III radio bursts and their qualification as a precondition for intense SEP events occurring either at Earth or STEREO location is provided by a robust automated algorithm that resulted from an international collaboration between partners with complementary expertise on particles and radio data. These real-time and highly accurate forecasting schemes, which are currently operational and accessible through the Space Weather Operational Unit of the National Observatory of Athens (http://www.hesperia.astro.noa.gr), have attracted attention from various space organizations (e.g., NASA/CCMC, SRAG) and some of them are now integrated and provided through the ESA Space Weather (SWE) Service Network (https://swe.ssa.esa.int/noahesperia-federated) under the Space Radiation Expert Service Center (R-ESC).
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