Oct 27 – 31, 2025
Europe/Stockholm timezone

Space weather risks in defence operations: radio and radar systems

Oct 30, 2025, 11:39 AM
18m
Miklagård

Miklagård

Oral APL1 - Space Weather Services and Alerts for End-Users: Bridging Forecasting, Infrastructure, and Communication APL1 - Space Weather Services and Alerts for End-Users: Bridging Forecasting, Infrastructure, and Communication

Speaker

Michaela Brchnelova (Nederlandse Defensie Academie)

Description

In Defensie, we have started with a systematic study of space weather (SW) effects on the most SW-vulnerable defence systems to determine the associated SW risks when these systems are used in operations. We will first shortly present this initiative, including its goals and main challenges. An important part of this initiative is creating a bridge between the existing academic knowledge and what the different users actually need to know and hear.

Our top priority for now are radio systems and radars, as these are directly influenced by multiple space weather phenomena, depending on their type. Here, we will discuss some of our first results in this area: what the statistics of the (risk-relevant) SW-related radio disturbances are, what these SW radio disturbances actually look like to operators and how these compare to the theoretical predictions that we have available, such as the D-region absorption model for HF radio. We will speculate over the reasons behind these differences and touch on their implications for operations. Furthermore, we will also outline the challenges in translating such findings into a format that is both understandable and usable for the end-users.

From the operational perspective, planning - and thus, forecasting - is also essential. For this reason, we also present the challenges related to the forecasting of SW radio impacts in such a way that the information is helpful for the operators, and where we find that our understanding, modelling and communication still lacks.

Finally, we will mention our ongoing and planned efforts to help close some of these gaps and where further collaboration with other parties, including open academia, can be possible and profitable.

Do you plan to attend in-person or online? In-person

Primary author

Michaela Brchnelova (Nederlandse Defensie Academie)

Co-authors

Ms Julia van Ravenswaaij (University of Maastricht) Mr Willem-Pieter van der Laan (Ministerie van Defensie)

Presentation materials

There are no materials yet.