Speaker
Description
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions of magnetized plasma that transport momentum and energy from the solar corona into the heliosphere and represent a major driver of space weather. Accurate forecasting of CME time of arrival (ToA) at Earth remains a key challenge for operational prediction centers. The WSA-ENLIL-Cone model, available at the NASA/Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) as a Run-on-Request service, has been widely employed by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and other agencies. However, ToA predictions based solely on coronagraph observations are often subject to significant uncertainties due to inaccurate initial conditions. To address this limitation, we investigate the incorporation of heliospheric imagery (HI) into ENLIL-based simulations. White-light (WL) images from the STEREO-A Heliospheric Imager are compared with synthetic WL images generated by the numerical model, enabling mid-course corrections of CME propagation and avoiding incorrect initialization. We present results for both a controlled scenario in a homogeneous solar wind and the 2020-12-07 CME event, the latter observed from a vantage point close to the L5 position, where ESA’s Vigil mission will be located. The analysis demonstrates that WL assimilation improves the accuracy of CME ToA predictions, constrains ensemble outputs, and enhances the operational applicability of heliospheric simulations.
