Speaker
Description
We at NICT currently forecast the maximum expected magnitude of solar flares for the next 24 hours. However, providing early warnings for major solar flares remains a significant challenge. To address this limitation, we are developing an alert system capable of predicting and issuing warnings for large flares at least several hours before their onset.
We recently implemented a physics-based flare prediction method proposed by Kusano et al. (2020), known as the "κ-scheme," into NICT’s operational flare forecasting. We have optimized the parameters of the κ-scheme and automated its code for practical use in space weather forecasting. We gradually integrated the κ-scheme into NICT’s flare forecasting operations by October 2024. Although we have not yet achieved issuing operational flare alerts based on this scheme, we have successfully predicted several major solar flares.
In this presentation, we report on the effectiveness of the κ-scheme in NICT’s operational space weather forecasting and present the current progress in the development of our flare alert system.
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