Speaker
Description
The Horizon Europe FARBES (Forecast of Actionable Radiation Belt Scenarios) project aims to develop methods for forecasting the dynamics of radiation belts trapped electron fluxes in an operational context. Our goal is to predict the evolution of an event over several days from its onset, as observed through geomagnetic indices, rather than predicting the occurrence of an event in the radiation belts based on its solar origin or upstream solar wind parameters.
This study describes the work carried out to date to develop and apply a new method to drive the radiation belts modelling code Salammbô. We based our work on a radiation belts dedicated events classification, combined with the Analog Ensemble technique, which involves identifying past periods that are most similar to a considered disturbed state and using their future developments as members of an ensemble of most probable evolutions.
We present here how the analog ensemble method can contribute to fine-tune the drivers of the Salammbô code to model a given event, using both single and ensemble Salammbô simulations. In particular, this method has the advantage of providing analog and historical time periods from which we can retrieve numerous timeseries such as the location of the magnetopause, observed fluxes along different orbits and in particular, outer boundaries for such a code. Furthermore, relying on the events classification developed as part of this project, we have been able to classify in an innovative way the interactions between electromagnetic waves and electrons trapped in the radiation belts. We show here on characteristics events, the benefits of the development made during the FARBES project.
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