Speaker
Description
Radiation-belt enhancement events, during which electrons reach energies high enough to penetrate spacecraft shielding, pose serious hazards to satellites. Reliable forecasts of both the peak flux level and the duration above an operationally safe threshold would be invaluable to satellite operators. In this talk, I present an algorithm based on Gaussian Processes (GP) to produce probabilistic forecasts that (1) estimate how long fluxes will remain elevated above a certain threshold, and (2) predict the peak intensity of each event. Our GPs are trained on historical NOAA GOES > 2 MeV electron-flux data to learn the characteristic signatures of enhancement events. We then construct a Bayesian framework that yields full predictive distributions, delivering not only mean forecasts but also uncertainty bands essential for space-weather decision-making. We demonstrate our approach across a variety of past radiation-belt storms, highlighting its accuracy, reliability, and the operational value of its uncertainty quantification.
| Do you plan to attend in-person or online? | In-person |
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