Oct 27 – 31, 2025
Europe/Stockholm timezone

The analysis and model-driven prediction of the deleterious impact of atmospheric drag on LEO debris around the peak of the 25th solar cycle

Oct 29, 2025, 4:00 PM
15m
Tonsalen

Tonsalen

Oral OPS - Open parallel session (OPS) Open parallel session

Speaker

Victor Nwankwo (Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics, German Aerospace Centre (DLR))

Description

Space weather can adversely affect the operation of satellites in Earth orbit and consequently exacerbate the problem of debris generation in space. The associated effects are more probable around the peak of a solar cycle. As we approach the peak of the 25th solar cycle, we leverage on our institute’s cross-program capabilities in model-driven assessment and prediction of LEO objects’ aerodynamic drag, to investigate the deleterious impact of space weather-enhanced atmospheric drag. In this work, we performed detailed analysis of long- and short-term drag impact on selected [catalogued] LEO objects and thus provide space situational awareness (SSA) in the current solar cycle regime. We also predict their rate of orbit decay ahead of the solar cycle peak using a novel ephemeris data-assisted calibration (EDAC) simulation approach and subsequently support the outcome with data obtained in the post prediction regime.

Do you plan to attend in-person or online? In-person

Primary author

Victor Nwankwo (Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics, German Aerospace Centre (DLR))

Co-authors

Dr Jens Berdermann (Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics, German Aerospace Centre (DLR)) Dr Frank Heymann (Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics, German Aerospace Centre (DLR))

Presentation materials

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