Speaker
Description
Understanding how the thermosphere responds to solar activity remains a critical challenge for space situational awareness, with growing relevance as atmospheric heating poses increasing risks to an expanding population of spacecraft and space debris.
We analyze several months of high-resolution orbit decay data from seven satellites spanning altitudes of ~470-810 km, integrated with continuous solar wind and radiation observations. Using a data-driven framework, we estimate atmospheric response times at these altitudes using a signal alignment technique. Subsequently, we model orbital decay from continuous solar driven observations, using the estimated response time as lead time. To support interpretation, we incorporate event catalogs and statistics of extreme events, in combination with explainable artificial intelligence.
We find that the atmospheric response time appears uniform across altitudes under strong geomagnetic activity. Additionally, monthly patterns in decay rate variability, while more pronounced at lower altitudes, are consistent between the selected spacecraft. We discuss the ranges within which different parameters (e.g., solar wind plasma temperature, electric field) exhibit stronger correlations to decay.
By statistically characterizing the variability of orbital decay across altitudes and time scales, this study aims to deliver new insights into solar-thermospheric coupling and contribute to operational decision-making.
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