Speaker
Description
The current state of the art in relativistic electron radiation belt models for operational needs come in two flavours – a “nowcast” based on data assimilation of relevant and timely measurements into a physics based model, and limited “forecasts'' based on statistical forecasts of indices or solar wind parameters that govern the dynamics in physical models. The FARBES (Forecast of Actionable Radiation Belt Scenarios, https://farbes.eu) project (2023-2025) limits its ambition to simple, achievable prediction goals that are of utility to satellite operators while avoiding the pitfalls of past projects. We hold that while it may be impossible to accurately predict the outbreak of a space weather event, once an event has started we have the tools to predict subsequent behavior and to update our predictions during the event. While we may not be able to globally predict in detail the subsequent dynamic behavior, we can provide actionable forecasts for satellite operators
on a few key event characteristics:
• Time to most severe environment
• Most severe flux reached
• Time to the end of the event.
We overcome the data-assimilation nowcast limitations by using physics-based models driven by simple, affordable and reliable ground-based real-time inputs only, we overcome our inability to accurately forecast magnetospheric drivers by using a scenario-driven forecast approach for radiation belt dynamics starting with nowcast and is constantly refined during an event by the ongoing availability of real-time model inputs.
We present the results of FARBES project that combines the physics based model with a special data assimilation approach: the input data are derived from ground based ULF and VLF measurements.
The FARBES project is funded by the European Union in the Horizon Europe programme under the project No. 101081772.
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