Speaker
Description
The METIS Coronagraph onboard Solar Orbiter observes simultaneously in the Visible (VL) band between 580 and 640 nm and the Ultraviolet (UV) band at 121.6 nm. It also observes at a high spatial and temporal resolution, thus allowing a comprehensive characterisation of solar events.
In particular, the Metis team is creating a database of solar eruptive events observed in both the VL and UV channels. The CME Catalogue now has more than three years' worth of data, from November 2020 to December 2023 and is actively being updated.
An important subset of these events could be geoeffective and could therefore be linked with various space weather phenomena. Here, we describe the work being done in identifying these events from the Metis CME catalogue. The first step is to identify events that can be potentially geoeffective. Then, the identification is refined by applying the triangulation method, where the Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are fitted using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model. This results in accurate measurement of the position, speed and direction of propagation of these events. For this purpose, along with the VL Channel data from Metis, white light coronagraph data from LASCO C2 and STEREO COR2A were also used.
Furthermore, we employ physics-based empirical models like the Drag-Based Model (DBM) and the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM), as well as time-dependent 3D Magnetohydrodynamic models like WSA-Enlil and EUHFORIA to predict the times of arrival at Earth. In this work, I will present an overview of the Metis observed geoeffective events identified so far from the catalogue while comparing the predicted results with the measurements of the conditions of the space environment surrounding Earth. Finally, based on these comparisons, we plan to assess the relative forecasting capabilities of the propagation models employed.
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