Speaker
Description
In the frame of the ESA Space Safety Programme’s Space Weather Service Network (S2P), the Radiation Belt Forecast And Nowcast framework 2 (RB-FAN 2) is currently developed to nowcast and forecast the particle populations and their dynamics within the radiation belts. This new version (see RB-FAN from ESA Space Situational Awareness Program) aims at providing new risk orbit, to improve the forecast of Earth radiation belts impact on spacecraft and human spaceflight. They will enrich current RB-FAN website, already available through the SWE Service Network.
This new framework version studies all aspects from the architecture design to the user requirements, including modelling/simulation consideration, and provision of products to end-users.
The RBFAN framework currently used in the SWE Service Network is composed of several models chained thanks to VSWMC, the Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre, from EUHFORIA models, to IMPTAM model. Salammbô-DA provides the forecast of the radiation belts dynamics using IMPTAM and EUHFORIA outputs, both for electrons (100 keV up to 8 MeV) and protons (1 MeV up to 400 MeV). A data assimilation process is also used to enhance and correct the radiation belt dynamic, using in situ measurements coming from different databases (ONERA -IPODE, BIRA-IASB and SPARC).
In the new environment, three additional models will upgrade RB-FAN framework. The PLASMA model provides information about plasmasphere density evolution, as well as location and shape of the plasmapause. EMERALD will provide to Salammbô-DA the radial diffusion coefficient inside radiation belt as a function of time. Finally, Solar Proton Event (SPE) model will provide alerts of SEP events in the coming 24 hours as well as estimation of the total fluence of the expected/ongoing event.
The website will also be upgraded in order to enhance the end-users experience. In addition to new indicators of interest for end-users on demand computation of specific products for given orbits will be made available throughout the web interface.
RB-FAN 2 is expected to be available at the beginning of next year.
Aknowledgement: This work is supported by the S2P S1-SW-14.2 Space Environment Nowcast and Forecast Development – Part 2 activity RB-FAN2 under contract number 4000140076/22/D/KS
