Speaker
Description
In previous years, space weather predictions have been developed as part of the Horizon 2020 funded projects PROGRESS (PRediction of Geospace Radiation Environment and Solar wind parameterS) and PAGER (Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic Storms and Energetic Radiation). Space weather predictions were initiated from observations of the Sun and provide a forecast of the radiation in space and its effects on satellite infrastructure. Real-time predictions allow for the evaluation of surface charging, and deep dielectric charging. The project provides 1-2 day probabilistic forecasts of ring current and radiation belt environments. As a backbone of the project, the most advanced codes from US and Europe were used to perform ensemble simulations and uncertainty quantification. This project includes a number of innovative tools, including data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, machine learning.
More recently, a new Horizon 2020 project, FLAG (Forecasts and Long-term probabilistic data Assimilative prediction of the effects of Geomagnetic storms) has been funded. FLAG will build upon PAGER and PROGRESS by reorganizing the coupling of the codes, providing realistic ensembles, adding new modules, carefully validating the new framework as a whole and transitioning the codes to operations at ESA. The final output of the FLAG early warning system will be simple to understand “traffic-light” indicators that will tell the stakeholders if their particular spacecraft, depending on the orbit and materials used, is in danger or not. FLAG will bring together researchers from the European Space Agency (ESA), the GFZ (Helmholtz-Zentrum für Geoforschung), the University of Warwick, TRAD Tests and Radiation, Université catholique de Louvain and BIRA (Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy).
| Do you plan to attend in-person or online? | In-person |
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