Speaker
Description
Accurately predicting the evolution and impact of solar disturbances—such as solar energetic particles (SEPs), stream interaction regions, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs)—demands a precise reconstruction of the background solar wind and its intricate small-scale structures. These subtle features play a critical role in determining the timing, shape, and geoeffectiveness of space weather events. To meet this challenge, we developed a novel, multi-step methodology called the Reverse In Situ and MHD Approach (RIMAP). Our approach begins by analyzing high-resolution in-situ measurements at 1 AU (near Earth), using ballistic mapping to trace the equatorial solar wind back toward the Sun. We then stop at 0.1 AU, where we use state-of-the-art 2D magnetohydrodynamic simulations—powered by the PLUTO code—to let the system relax into equilibrium, preserving the wind's fine-scale structure with exceptional fidelity. This reconstructed solar wind background enables us to model CME propagation with unprecedented detail, also providing information on the magnetic connectivity with the Sun of our planet, and any spacecraft orbiting the ecliptic plane. RIMAP has revealed the potential to infer the original chemical composition of solar plasma, as well as reproduce magnetic switchbacks as driven by flow pulses in sheared magnetic fields. As a compelling demonstration, we are applying RIMAP to the September 5, 2022 CME event, aiming to constrain shock front structures and gain new insights into SEP propagation mechanisms, and combining in-situ data acquired by Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe. A lower resolution version of RIMAP is currently running under the SWELTO (Space Weather Lab in Turin Observatory) project, demonstrating the capability to provide a daily adjournment on the shape of the Parker spiral of interplanetary magnetic fields, solar wind densities, and velocities. Our results showcase the transformative potential of RIMAP-based modeling in advancing heliophysics research and enhancing real-time space weather forecasting capabilities. The RIMAP model will find a perfect application in the prediction of the circumterrestrial environment with an advance of about 4.5 days starting from the in situ data acquired by the future Vigil mission at the Lagrangian point L5.
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