Speaker
Description
This work focuses on the cross-comparison and validation of CME modeling and arrival prediction tools. We present modeled CME propagation and expected arrival times based on several empirical and more elaborate physics-based models. We discuss the simple arrival predictions purely based on the estimated CME propagation speed and compare them with the results from the drag-based model (DBM) and the ensemble drag-based model (DBEM). Furthermore we compare the CME propagation and arrival estimates resulting from magnetohydrodynamic heliospheric modeling tools, such as EUHFORIA and/or ENLIL. We illustrate the expected CME arrival differences for selected events, including CMEs observed in October 2024 and April 2025. Finally we compare the expectations with the observed shock and flux rope arrivals at Earth via in situ (L1) measurements of the solar wind. In addition, we discuss the importance of a correct estimation of the CME properties used for the various heliospheric propagation and arrival prediction tools. We compare the differences between CME analysis based on CACTUS, SWPC CAT and STEREO-CAT tools for the selected geomagnetic storms and present some preliminary conclusions based on the results.
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