Speaker
Description
Space weather in the Arctic presents significant challenges for users of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), particularly due to phase scintillations, which are rapid fluctuations in the signal phase, that can degrade positioning accuracy and in severe cases cause complete signal loss. The phase scintillation index serves as a standard metric for quantifying these fluctuations. Reliable real-time monitoring and forecasting of the phase scintillation index are critical to identify regions and time periods with increased risks of GNSS disturbances. In this presentation, we propose a novel parametrised model of the phase scintillation index at high latitudes, leveraging solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters, alongside 1-second magnetic measurements from ground stations in Greenland. Our results demonstrate that the model performs well in capturing the occurrence and general trend of the scintillations, and shows great potential as a real-time model in the auroral zone and as a forecasting model in the polar cap. Although the model currently underestimates the larger amplitudes displayed by the phase scintillation index, the inclusion of ground-based magnetic data significantly enhances the model performance at auroral latitudes. In conclusion, this model could support present and future space weather services that seek to consolidate navigation in the Arctic, which is vital for aviation, maritime, and other critical operations.
