European Space Weather Week 2025

Long Term Performance of a Real‐Time Electron Radiation Belt Specification Model

Oct 31, 2025, 8:30 AM

15m

Idun

Oral SWR3 - Inner Magnetospheric Dynamics and Coupling Processes SWR3 – Inner Magnetospheric Dynamics and Coupling Processes

Speaker

Frances Staples (University of California Los Angeles)

Description

The Radiation Belt Forecasting Model and Framework (RBFMF) provides real-time forecasts and hindcasts of the radiation environment, which are used as inputs for the Satellite Charging Assessment Tool (Sat-CAT). Sat-Cat is used by satellite operators to model both long term and real-time effects of internal charging on satellite components. We will present the validation results of the RBFMF, and will show how combining real-time electron flux observations with physics based modelling improves hindcasting capabilities of either method used alone. We will also highlight how new missions must consider data provision for real-time operational applications, and discuss the observational requirements and model development necessary for improved specification of the radiation environment through hindcasts and forecasts.