Speaker
Description
In this presentation I will review the current progress and challenges for improving forecasts of the geomagnetic effects of solar coronal mass ejections (CME), and will present a future roadmap, including metrics and validation efforts. This should not only include the solar wind drivers but also the magnetospheric response, which is facilitated through the combined expertise of a recently formed ISSI team.
A main limiting factor in improving CME forecasting is the prediction of the interplanetary southward Bz magnetic field. In particular, its determination with remote sensing methods is a major unsolved problem. Here, data from the just launched PUNCH mission using polarized images to determine the spatial location of CME substructures could lead to discoveries. Recent breakthroughs have already been made by demonstrating results for CME Bz predictions with upstream monitors that are situated closer to the Sun than L1, with STEREO-A and Solar Orbiter. This allowed a first validation of the use of these types of spacecraft for predicting global geomagnetic indices, and already led to initial guidelines for future mission design, with HENON as a first pathfinder mission on a distant retrograde orbit in development. Other approaches use hyperfast semi-empirical, AI-based or hybrid physics-informed AI approaches to predict southward Bz at L1.
For all of these approaches, more consensus should be found on which solar wind parameters, for example, scalars like peak magnitudes and durations, are useful to better predict and understand the magnetospheric impact of different solar wind drivers. We also need to look more into how useful these distinct forecast parameters are for various technical applications, for example for predicting disturbances of GNSS systems or power grids, or to model the location of the aurora. Our ISSI team studies how the magnetosphere reacts to different types of solar wind inputs, and to compare it to ground truths, we use the 2024 October 10 CME geomagnetic superstorm as a representative case of an exceptionally strong event.
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