Conveners
SWR5 – Space Climate: Orals - Part 1
- Barbara Perri (AIM - OSUPS)
- Kalevi Mursula (University of Oulu)
SWR5 – Space Climate: Orals - Part 2
- Claudio Corti (CCMC; University of Hawaii)
- Kalevi Mursula (University of Oulu)
SWR5 – Space Climate: Orals - part 3
- Claudio Corti (CCMC; University of Hawaii)
- Barbara Perri (AIM - OSUPS)
Description
Space weather and space climate have their origin in the Sun's magnetic field, which forms the continuously changing plasma environment in the heliosphere. Long-term observations of the Sun over the past few centuries have identified variations of the solar activity on different time scales, the most prominent ones being the 11-year sunspot cycle and the centennial Gleissberg cycle. Understanding and forecasting solar activity and the conditions in the heliosphere, including their effects to the Earth, is a major challenge in the field of heliophysics. The last decade has seen a lot of progress in solar activity modeling and in developing predictive capabilities, and there is a large diversity of forecasts using multiple methodologies. In addition, different communities and end-users have different needs about the cadence, lead time, and accuracy of the forecast parameters. This session aims to discuss the current capabilities and challenges in understanding and forecasting of long-term solar activity and related heliospheric and terrestrial effects for time scales of a few solar rotations onward. Possible forecast parameters include, e.g., sunspot numbers, total and spectral irradiance, open heliospheric flux, radio fluxes, galactic cosmic rays, extreme solar energetic particles, coronal holes, high-speed solar wind streams, coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, GICs, magnetic storms, ionospheric parameters (foF2, etc), polar vortices, sudden stratospheric warmings, etc. We invite talks and posters from all these space weather and space climate domains, from the Sun to geospace, discussing their current understanding and long-term forecasting, new observations, theories and models, forecasting methodologies, and validation efforts.
Particular attention has recently been paid to the near solar subsurface layer, known as NSSL. On the one hand, because of the disruptive role of the magnetic field, whose properties are still far from fully understood in this region. Secondly, because of some unsuspected properties of solar rotation that have been also recently put in evidence, notably the reversal of the rotation gradient...
The Sun’s variability is controlled by the progression and interaction of the magnetized systems that form the 22-year magnetic activity cycle (the “Hale Cycle”) as they march from their origin at ∼55° latitude to the equator, over ∼19 years. Indeed, the Extended Solar Cycle is the Cycle.
Over the past few years, we have developed a new paradigm built around the overlapping extended...
The study of magnetic activity in the Sun's polar regions is essential for understanding the solar cycle. However, measuring polar magnetic fields presents challenges due to projection effects and their intrinsically weak magnetic field strength. Faculae, bright regions on the visible solar surface associated with increased magnetic activity, offer a valuable proxy for measuring polar...
The evolution of the solar magnetic field is the key factor governing space weather drivers. Accurate forecasting of space weather requires precise modelling of the magnetic field's evolution on the solar surface using methods like Surface flux transport (SFT). Conventionally used SFT modelling techniques involve grid-based numerical schemes, making them computationally expensive. In this...
To improve solar 11 yr cycle forecast one must be able to take into account the rising/declining phase asymmetry of the cycle. In our Solar Predict 11 yr cycle forecasting tool based on a 4D-var assimilation technique coupled to a Babcock-Leighton mean field dynamo model - we use meridional circulation as the primary control parameter for determining the future cycle's length and amplitude. In...
The Solar system travels in the interstellar medium and may encounter so-called clouds, regions of the enhanced density of matter relative to the surrounding space. Such passages can in theory affect the size of the heliosphere around the Sun and lead to a significant change of the space climate around the Earth. As one of the changes, a reduced heliospheric size can make the solar modulation...
The magnesium II core-to-wing ratio has been measured on a daily basis since 1978. It is a widely used proxy for solar chromospheric activity, essential for satellite drag calculations as well as the model that is the NOAA Climate Data Record for solar spectral irradiance. In 2017, this measurement became available operationally from GOES-16/EXIS at three-second cadence with high...
Solar flares are transient energetic events triggered by electromagnetic plasma instabilities arising within regions of the solar corona. These events are characterized by a broadband radiative emission and energetic particle release and, in synergy with other transient solar phenomena, play a key role in shaping space climate. Despite decades of observations, the statistical properties and...
Solar eruptive activity manifests in several forms, the most prominent and well-studied being solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. However, the upper limits of intensity for these eruptive phenomena remain largely uncertain. To date, only extreme solar particle events (ESPEs) have been identified in cosmogenic isotope records preserved in...
Investigating the intricate relationship between galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar activity is fundamental to our understanding of the physical mechanisms governing particle transport within the heliosphere. It also provides critical insights into radiation exposure and associated risks for space missions. In this study, we present advancements in our predictive model for solar modulation,...
SAPPHIRE-2S is a novel model developed over several years which concerns Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) particle radiation and is the extension of the Solar Accumulated and Peak Proton and Heavy Ion Radiation Environment (SAPPHIRE) model. SAPPHIRE-2S is the first publicly available SEP climate specification model offering as base output solar particle flux time-series. The time-series outputs...
The intensity and energy spectrum of energetic charged radiation in the heliosphere are significantly influenced by solar activity. This phenomenon is known as solar modulation of cosmic rays.
As interplanetary travel becomes a reality, missions in low-earth orbit become longer and more frequent. In order to accurately assess the radiation hazard experienced by astronauts during space...
In recent years, our star has significantly increased its activity. This has been reflected in a larger number of geomagnetic storms, manifesting in the geomagnetic field perturbation and the formation of strong ground electric fields (GEFs). One of the most important consequences of exceptionally high levels of GEF is the occurrence of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), which are...
Annual carbon isotope (δ13C) data obtained from the Pafuri Baobab trees from north-eastern Southern Africa for the period 1200 AD – 2000 AD were used to investigate the presence and variability of the Hale, Schwabe and Gleissberg solar periodicities during the Wolf (1280 – 1340 AD), Spörer (1388 – 1550 AD), Maunder (1621 – 1715 AD) and Dalton (1790 – 1820 AD) solar minima. Spectral analysis...
We study magnetic storms during the 120-year time interval (1903-2023), which covers the whole Modern Maximum (MM, the latest Gleissberg cycle) of solar activity. Storms are mainly driven by coronal mass ejections (CME) and high-speed solar wind streams with related stream interaction regions (HSS/SIR). CME occurrence closely follows sunspots, the emergence of new strong magnetic flux, while...
Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are some of the most hazardous phenomena of space weather, since they contain populations of ionizing radiation and as such they can present dangers for the increasingly complex electronics on board spacecraft. Recently, the list of SEP models has been expanded, thanks to ESA-driven activities that led to the creation of a reference dataset for the study...
Geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) are rapid changes in the magnetic field of the Earth that can cause electric currents to be induced at the surface of Earth. These geomagnetically induced current (GICs) can cause damage to infrastructure such as pipelines and power grids. Previous studies have shown that there are three main populations of GMDs, one in the pre-midnight sector, one in the dawn...
Energetic electron precipitations (EEP) from the solar wind introduce reactive species such as NOx and HOx into the middle atmosphere, leading to ozone depletion and subsequent modifications of the radiative balance during winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, however, the dominant source of variability in the polar stratosphere arises from sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), which can mask...
Energetic particle precipitation (EPP) is a key driver of chemical and dynamical processes in the middle atmosphere,influencing ozone concentrations, radiative heating, and large-scale circulation patterns. Investigating EPP impacts in observations and historical simulations is complicated by the sporadic nature of EPP events, sparse and noisy datasets, and the presence of internal atmospheric...
We have investigated the energy/rigidity dependence of the amplitude of the long-term galactic cosmic ray variations described by the power-law fitting over the solar cycle. For a physical interpretation, we have considered the relationship between long-term galactic cosmic ray variations and heliospheric magnetic field.
The apparent solar cycle variability can be seen in the time profile of...
Understanding the dynamics of protons within the Earth's magnetosphere is crucial for assessing the long-term impact of space weather on satellite infrastructure. Accurate simulation of these dynamics often relies on solving a Fokker-Planck diffusion equation, with precise modeling of proton sources and losses as a central requirement. In this work, we present a significant advancement in...
The flux of cosmic rays (CRs) is modulated by solar activity. The heliospheric modulation parameter ϕ is a useful quantity to assess the level and variation of the modulation. It is based on the force-field approximation, which simplifies the Parker equation and complex modulation to a single quantity. In spite of the heavy approximations, the modulation potential still stands as a useful and...
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, such as Brazil’s Amazonia-1, are subject to atmospheric drag resulting from
variations in thermospheric density, which intensify during periods of elevated solar activity. This study
investigates how space weather phenomena—specifically geomagnetic storms and solar flares—influence the
orbital decay of Amazonia-1 between 2021 and 2023. Real orbital data...
Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) represent a potential threat to power transmission systems during extreme space weather events. This study investigates a worst-case scenario for GICs in Sweden. We generate 1-in-100-year scenarios by scaling either ground magnetic field measurements or geoelectric fields from three historically observed geomagnetic storms. For the purpose of this...
COSMICA is an open-source, high-performance numerical code that leverages GPU acceleration for modeling the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR). It has been developed within the framework of the ICSC - Italian Research Center on High Performance Computing, Big Data, and Quantum Computing (Spoke-3). The software is continuously optimized to enhance its computational efficiency on...
Solar energetic particles (SEPs), accelerated by solar flares and interplanetary shocks, can penetrate the Earth's atmosphere, producing ion pairs and contributing to the generation of reactive species such as NOx and HOx. These processes play a role in atmospheric chemistry and are considered part of the broader category of solar forcing.
As such, SEPs are included in the Coupled Model...
Direct measurements of solar irradiance have only been available since the late 1970s, making models essential for reconstructing earlier values.
Variations in solar irradiance on timescales longer than a day are primarily driven by changes in the Sun's surface magnetic field, which manifests as bright faculae and network features or dark sunspots.
Accurate irradiance modeling therefore...
We will present the Solar Predict tool that uses the Silso SSN time series and the Blos magnetic field observations to forecast the solar 11yr cycle activity. The tool and performance are presented in a recent paper Jouve et al 2025, A&A, in press.
Events with extreme magnitudes of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in the power transmission lines on the Kola Peninsula for the quasi-solar cycle 2012-2022 are analyzed. GIC recordings from Vykhodnoy (VKH) and Kondopoga (KND) sub-stations together with data from near-by magnetometers have been examined. Extreme bursts of GIС are mainly observed in the pre-midnight and post-midnight...
The International Radiation Environment Near Earth Model (IRENE), formerly AE9/AP9/SPM, has provided the global satellite design community with enhanced specification capabilities over legacy models since 2012. Based on feedback from the community we have continued to improve and expand capabilities of the model suite. We have recently released updates to version 1.5 providing more features...
Reliable descriptors of solar activity are crucial for Space Weather, especially to capture not only the long-term solar cycle but also the short- and mid-term variability driving energetic events. Traditional indices such as the widely used Sunspot Number (SSN) provide a global measure of solar activity level but cannot specify which phenomena are expected, while the 2800 MHz solar radio flux...
The Trieste Solar Radio System (TSRS), consisting of two multi-channel solar radio polarimeters, monitored decimetric and metric solar coronal emissions from 1969 to 2010. It recorded flux and polarisation at multiple frequencies with high temporal resolution, resulting in a dataset that spans over four solar cycles and contains thousands of solar radio bursts (Types II, III, IV), background...
