Speaker
Description
Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) represent a potential threat to power transmission systems during extreme space weather events. This study investigates a worst-case scenario for GICs in Sweden. We generate 1-in-100-year scenarios by scaling either ground magnetic field measurements or geoelectric fields from three historically observed geomagnetic storms. For the purpose of this analysis, magnetic field perturbations are assumed to be uniform along longitudes and scaled with latitude during such extreme events. Previous studies in Sweden suggest that the largest geoelectric field magnitudes (|E|) during geomagnetic disturbances often occur near geomagnetic latitude (Glat) 58.7°, while the highest expected |E| values are found closer to Glat 56.9°. We use previously derived 1-in-100-year return levels of the geoelectric field to determine appropriate scaling factors. These are then applied to model geoelectric fields across the country using the recently developed RAISE model (Rosenqvist et al., 2025). Based on these modeled geoelectric fields, we estimate transmission line voltages and power node currents to assess potential GIC impacts. This work contributes to the broader understanding of infrastructure vulnerability in Sweden under extreme space weather conditions.
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