Speaker
Description
We present the study which aims to demonstrate that the solar wind conditions in which the CMEs propagate are critical for accurate modeling of CME and the CME-driven shock characteristics and arrival time at Earth. We analyzed two full halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed on December 7, 2020 and on November 2, 2021. The first CME was propagating within the slow solar wind as seen from the in-situ time series at Earth, while in the case of the second CME, the fast solar wind was observed before its arrival at 1 au. These events were selected to demonstrate how different solar wind conditions affect the accuracy of the CME modeling at Earth and therefore the high importance of the correct modeling of the solar wind in which the CMEs are ejected. We used the 3D MHD model EUHFORIA to simulate solar wind and the cone model to model the CMEs.
Our results show that, in the case of a first event, the GONG synoptic magnetograms provide rather accurate solar wind modelling at Earth while we obtain rather poor accuracy when we employ the GONG ADAPT magnetograms. Situation is opposite in the case of a second studied event where the EUHFORIA performs significantly better in modeling of the solar wind using the GONG ADAPT magnetograms. We noticed that the existence of the coronal hole, the source of the fast solar wind, in the vicinity of the CME source region, influences the accuracy of the solar wind modeling. However, the more general conclusions can be drawn only after statistical analysis.
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