Speaker
Description
Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs), with energies from tens of keV to a few GeV, are a significant component of the space environment. They threaten satellite electronics and pose a major radiation hazard to astronauts, and in extreme conditions, they also endanger avionics and commercial aircraft. Therefore, accurate and timely prediction of SEP events is essential for human spaceflight beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) and for aviation safety. SEP events vary in their spectral characteristics and duration and can last from hours to days. The Real‑Time SEP Forecasting HESPERIA products were developed under the HESPERIA H2020 project (Project Coordinator: Dr. Olga Malandraki) and have provided significant results in SEP event prediction since 2015. This suite includes the HESPERIA UMASEP‑500 product, which issues real‑time predictions of >500 MeV proton events and Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events by analyzing soft X‑ray and high‑energy differential proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellite network. Using space‑based measurements, this predictor delivers valuable lead time for GLE occurrence and provides real‑time inputs to tools such as AVIDOS that assess the radiation exposure to aircrew. Furthermore, the HESPERIA REleASE product, based on the Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE), predicts the 15.8–50.1 MeV proton flux at L1 using relativistic and near‑relativistic electron measurements from the SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM experiments. Also, the HESPERIA REleASE Alert translates these forecasts into real‑time notifications, providing users with illustrative graphics and distribution services that convey the expected radiation impact and notifies the end-users in advance for upcoming SEP events. The accuracy and timeliness of the HESPERIA products have drawn the attention of major space organizations, including NASA’s Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) / Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG), and the European Space Agency (ESA). Their proven accuracy and reliability led to their integration into the ESA Space Weather (SWE) Service Network (https://swe.ssa.esa.int/noa-hesperia-federated). This integration, guided by ESA’s strict requirements, has defined the current implementation of the products and introduced state‑of‑the‑art technologies and user‑interface concepts, together with distribution mechanisms that deliver forecasts for further processing, ensuring high‑quality of user experience. We will present the HESPERIA products as provided through the ESA SWE Service Network under the Space Radiation Expert Service Centre (R‑ESC) and discuss selected SEP events that were successfully predicted by the HESPERIA REleASE product during Solar Cycle 25. This work was performed in the frame of ESA Space Safety Programme’s network of space weather service development and pre-operational activities and supported under ESA Contract 4000134036/21/D/MRP.
