Speaker
Description
The University of California, San Diego (UCSD) heliospheric analyses now provide a Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric GSM Bz forecast several days ahead of the current time. This forecast has a better than 70% chance of a hit rate to predict a geomagnetic storm associated with a Kp enhancement greater than 5 in a small plus or minus one-day window of the Bz drop below zero. Our automatic system operates using Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) data, near-Earth spacecraft measurements, and Kp measurements from Potsdam, Germany, to enhance this capability in a Machine Learning program. IPS data from the Institute for Space-Science Environmental Research (ISEE) Japan has long been used to provide the heliospheric velocities needed to extrapolate the US National Solar Observatory’s Global Oscillation Network (GONG) data sets outward from the solar surface. Now we can add IPS scintillation level-derived densities and velocities from the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) UK Rawlings site with the UK-funded Radio Investigations for Space Environment Research (RISER) initiative. These data significantly enhance the IPS capability to provide global heliospheric measurements and accurate forecast timing. This is because a second Earth longitude location adds radio sources viewed at a different time close to the Sun and generally avoids radio outages from regional weather conditions and instrument maintenance. At UCSD the presentations are updated at 6-hour intervals as the forecast of the GSM Bz dip below zero gets closer. Here, we show past examples and new forecasts of geomagnetic storms from the ISEE and LOFAR combination of IPS data.
