Mar 13 – 15, 2017
Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris
Europe/Paris timezone

On the interpretation of ozone trends derived from multi-linear-regression approaches

Mar 13, 2017, 5:10 PM
Room 108, 1st floor, C 44-54

Room 108, 1st floor, C 44-54


Dr Mark Weber (University of Bremen)


Since ozone depleting substances (ODS) started their decline in the late 1990s, stratospheric ozone is expected to recover. Sofar a statistical significant increase as usually derived from statistical regression models has not been observed in total ozone. Nevertheless, total column ozone has levelled off and in the upper stratosphere an ozone increase is evident, both documenting the success of the Montreal Protocol. Despite this, the proper interpretation of trends from multi linear regression (MLR) is not as straight forward as it seems as other processes that show variations on longer time (decadal) scales, that are possibly linked to climate change, also play a role. In this presentation we want to discuss the limitations of MLR (selection of contributing terms, different ways of describing the trends: EESC vs linear, uncertainties due to instrument drifts) and summarise on attributions of varying trends observed in different regions of the atmosphere in the recent decade.

Primary author

Dr Mark Weber (University of Bremen)


- 'BAMS state if the climate' stratospheric ozone team (-) Dr Alexei Rozanov (University of Bremen) Dr Nabiz Rahpoe (University of Bremen)

Presentation materials