Speaker
Abhinandan Dass
Description
Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are affected by solar modulation while they propagate through the heliosphere. The time variation of GCR spectra is driven by different physical processes, such as advection, diffusion, particle drifts, and adiabatic energy losses, whose relative contribution changes during the solar cycle. Here we present preliminary efforts towards a physics-based long-term GCR forecasting tool. We first constrain the GCR transport parameters with a 3D numerical model, using precise data from the PAMELA and AMS-02, then we relate them with solar and heliospheric quantities, using a mixture density network to obtain proper probability distribution functions for the predicted GCR spectra.
Primary authors
Abhinandan Dass
Claudio Corti
(CCMC; University of Hawaii)
Co-authors
Dr
Cristina Consolandi
(University of Hawaii at Manoa)
Dr
Nikolay Nikonov
(University of Hawaii at Manoa)
Prof.
Veronica Bindi
(University of Hawaii at Manoa)
