Speaker
Description
Satellite drag predictions continue to be one of the main challenges facing operators of satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Drag-validated data assimilation (DA) techniques such as IDEA [Sutton 2018] using an ensemble of global circulation models, and Dragster [Pilinski et al. 2016], using an empirical model ensemble, can determine the thermospheric model forcing that is most compatible with the observed satellite drag, effectively making a “driver correction” to the atmospheric models at each time step. Making use of these promising techniques in LEO operations requires the mapping between DA nowcasts and issued forecast drivers. We present the nowcast results from two years of Dragster and IDEA runs and compare these with operational nowcasts. The estimated forcing parameters, their comparison to existing indices and proxies, and the validation of neutral density outputs are also discussed. Finally, we evaluate several methods of launching forecasts based on these nowcasts. The overall goal is to determine how best to make thermospheric forecasts using the best validated and most operationally ready DA techniques.
