Conveners
SWR5 – Space Climate: Orals - Part 1
- Kalevi Mursula (University of Oulu)
- Barbara Perri (AIM - OSUPS)
- Ilya Usoskin (University of Oulu)
- Claudio Corti (CCMC; University of Hawaii)
SWR5 – Space Climate: Orals - Part 2
- Kalevi Mursula (University of Oulu)
- Ilya Usoskin (University of Oulu)
- Barbara Perri (AIM - OSUPS)
- Claudio Corti (CCMC; University of Hawaii)
SWR5 – Space Climate: Orals - part 3
- Barbara Perri (AIM - OSUPS)
- Ilya Usoskin (University of Oulu)
- Claudio Corti (CCMC; University of Hawaii)
- Kalevi Mursula (University of Oulu)
Description
Space weather and space climate have their origin in the Sun's magnetic field, which forms the continuously changing plasma environment in the heliosphere. Long-term observations of the Sun over the past few centuries have identified variations of the solar activity on different time scales, the most prominent ones being the 11-year sunspot cycle and the centennial Gleissberg cycle. Understanding and forecasting solar activity and the conditions in the heliosphere, including their effects to the Earth, is a major challenge in the field of heliophysics. The last decade has seen a lot of progress in solar activity modeling and in developing predictive capabilities, and there is a large diversity of forecasts using multiple methodologies. In addition, different communities and end-users have different needs about the cadence, lead time, and accuracy of the forecast parameters. This session aims to discuss the current capabilities and challenges in understanding and forecasting of long-term solar activity and related heliospheric and terrestrial effects for time scales of a few solar rotations onward. Possible forecast parameters include, e.g., sunspot numbers, total and spectral irradiance, open heliospheric flux, radio fluxes, galactic cosmic rays, extreme solar energetic particles, coronal holes, high-speed solar wind streams, coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, GICs, magnetic storms, ionospheric parameters (foF2, etc), polar vortices, sudden stratospheric warmings, etc. We invite talks and posters from all these space weather and space climate domains, from the Sun to geospace, discussing their current understanding and long-term forecasting, new observations, theories and models, forecasting methodologies, and validation efforts.
Particular attention has recently been paid to the near solar subsurface layer, known as NSSL. On the one hand, because of the disruptive role of the magnetic field, whose properties are still far from fully understood in this region. Secondly, because of some unsuspected properties of solar rotation that have been also recently put in evidence, notably the reversal of the rotation gradient...
The Sun’s variability is controlled by the progression and interaction of the magnetized systems that form the 22-year magnetic activity cycle (the “Hale Cycle”) as they march from their origin at ∼55° latitude to the equator, over ∼19 years. Indeed, the Extended Solar Cycle is the Cycle.
Over the past few years, we have developed a new paradigm built around the overlapping extended...
We report on prediction of the solar activity on the time-scale (from several months to a year) using a combination of the 1D nonlinear mean-field dynamo model with magnetic helicity evolution and artificial neural network.
The neural network works as a correction scheme for the forecast by using the currently available observational data (the 13 month running average of the observed solar...
The study of magnetic activity in the Sun's polar regions is essential for understanding the solar cycle. However, measuring polar magnetic fields presents challenges due to projection effects and their intrinsically weak magnetic field strength. Faculae, bright regions on the visible solar surface associated with increased magnetic activity, offer a valuable proxy for measuring polar...
The evolution of the solar magnetic field is the key factor governing space weather drivers. Accurate forecasting of space weather requires precise modelling of the magnetic field's evolution on the solar surface using methods like Surface flux transport (SFT). Conventionally used SFT modelling techniques involve grid-based numerical schemes, making them computationally expensive. In this...
To improve solar 11 yr cycle forecast one must be able to take into account the rising/declining phase asymmetry of the cycle. In our Solar Predict 11 yr cycle forecasting tool based on a 4D-var assimilation technique coupled to a Babcock-Leighton mean field dynamo model - we use meridional circulation as the primary control parameter for determining the future cycle's length and amplitude. In...
We reconstruct the Sun’s full-sphere luminosity over Solar Cycles 23 and 24 using a semi-empirical Total Solar Irradiance model driven by sunspot, facular, and network observations. Our results show peak luminosity enhancements of ∼0.14% at cycle maximum relative to minimum in Cycle 23, with a reduced amplitude in Cycle 24. Differences between Earth-viewed TSI and full-sphere output highlight...
The magnesium II core-to-wing ratio has been measured on a daily basis since 1978. It is a widely used proxy for solar chromospheric activity, essential for satellite drag calculations as well as the model that is the NOAA Climate Data Record for solar spectral irradiance. In 2017, this measurement became available operationally from GOES-16/EXIS at three-second cadence with high...
Solar flares are transient energetic events triggered by electromagnetic plasma instabilities arising within regions of the solar corona. These events are characterized by a broadband radiative emission and energetic particle release and, in synergy with other transient solar phenomena, play a key role in shaping space climate. Despite decades of observations, the statistical properties and...
Solar eruptive activity manifests in several forms, the most prominent and well-studied being solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. However, the upper limits of intensity for these eruptive phenomena remain largely uncertain. To date, only extreme solar particle events (ESPEs) have been identified in cosmogenic isotope records preserved in...
Investigating the intricate relationship between galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar activity is fundamental to our understanding of the physical mechanisms governing particle transport within the heliosphere. It also provides critical insights into radiation exposure and associated risks for space missions. In this study, we present advancements in our predictive model for solar modulation,...
SAPPHIRE-2S is a novel model developed over several years which concerns Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) particle radiation and is the extension of the Solar Accumulated and Peak Proton and Heavy Ion Radiation Environment (SAPPHIRE) model. SAPPHIRE-2S is the first publicly available SEP climate specification model offering as base output solar particle flux time-series. The time-series outputs...
The intensity and energy spectrum of energetic charged radiation in the heliosphere are significantly influenced by solar activity. This phenomenon is known as solar modulation of cosmic rays.
As interplanetary travel becomes a reality, missions in low-earth orbit become longer and more frequent. In order to accurately assess the radiation hazard experienced by astronauts during space...
In recent years, our star has significantly increased its activity. This has been reflected in a larger number of geomagnetic storms, manifesting in the geomagnetic field perturbation and the formation of strong ground electric fields (GEFs). One of the most important consequences of exceptionally high levels of GEF is the occurrence of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), which are...
Annual carbon isotope (δ13C) data obtained from the Pafuri Baobab trees from north-eastern Southern Africa for the period 1200 AD – 2000 AD were used to investigate the presence and variability of the Hale, Schwabe and Gleissberg solar periodicities during the Wolf (1280 – 1340 AD), Spörer (1388 – 1550 AD), Maunder (1621 – 1715 AD) and Dalton (1790 – 1820 AD) solar minima. Spectral analysis...
We study magnetic storms during the 120-year time interval (1903-2023), which covers the whole Modern Maximum (MM, the latest Gleissberg cycle) of solar activity. Storms are mainly driven by coronal mass ejections (CME) and high-speed solar wind streams with related stream interaction regions (HSS/SIR). CME occurrence closely follows sunspots, the emergence of new strong magnetic flux, while...
