Description
Do we need different proxies for GND/MOD/SAT? Analyse seasonal trends? Weighted regression? DLM vs MLR? Complete sensitivity studies?
Dr
Viktoria Sofieva
(Finnish Meteorological Institute)
9/18/18, 9:00 AM
oral
Preliminary analyses of seasonal dependence of ozone trends in the stratosphere using the long-term merged datasets will be shown. The first results show that the ozone trends in the tropics depend significantly on season.
Dr
Michael Taylor
(University of Reading)
9/18/18, 9:20 AM
oral
We present a 5-step method to estimate piecewise linear trends in SBUV MOD v6 monthly zonal mean (MZM) profile ozone timeseries containing gaps (e.g. associated with volcanic perturbations). The method is non-parametric and does not use proxies. In Step 1, an optimised local regression (LOESS) to the porous data is obtained using bootstrap in a way that guarantees trend stationarity via the...
Dr
William Ball
(PMOD/WRC Davos & IAC/ETH Zurich)
9/18/18, 9:40 AM
oral
DLM has been postulated to be an improvement on standard multiple linear regression (MLR) approaches to timeseries analysis, but it is relatively new and seldom implemented. Among other things, it has three significant advantages over MLR: (i) for trend estimation, no a priori assumption is made about the linear nature of trends, nor when the recovery inflection date in ozone timeseries,...
